Daily Papers

Lithology classification aims to infer subsurface rock types from well-logging signals, supporting downstream applications like reservoir characterization. Despite substantial progress, most existing methods still treat lithology classification as a single-pass classification task. In contrast, practical experts incorporate geological principles, external knowledge, and tool-use capabilities to perform accurate classification. In this work, we propose GeoDecider, a coarse-to-fine agentic workflow that enables accurate and explainable lithology classification through training-free use of large language models (LLMs). GeoDecider reformulates lithology classification as an expert-like structured process and organizes it into a multi-stage workflow involving coarse-to-fine reasoning. Specifically, GeoDecider includes the following stages: (1) base classifier-guided coarse classification, which uses a pre-trained classifier to provide a rough reference for downstream tasks, thus reducing the overall cost of downstream reasoning, (2) tool-augmented reasoning, which utilizes several tools such as contextual analysis and neighbor retrieval to achieve finer and more precise classifications, (3) geological refinement, which post-processes the final results to enforce geological consistency. Experiments on four benchmarks show that GeoDecider outperforms representative baselines. Further analysis demonstrates that the proposed framework produces geologically interpretable predictions while achieving a better trade-off between classification performance and inference efficiency.

Geological borehole descriptions contain detailed textual information about the composition of the subsurface. However, their unstructured format presents significant challenges for extracting relevant features into a structured format. This paper introduces GEOBERTje: a domain adapted large language model trained on geological borehole descriptions from Flanders (Belgium) in the Dutch language. This model effectively extracts relevant information from the borehole descriptions and represents it into a numeric vector space. Showcasing just one potential application of GEOBERTje, we finetune a classifier model on a limited number of manually labeled observations. This classifier categorizes borehole descriptions into a main, second and third lithology class. We show that our classifier outperforms both a rule-based approach and GPT-4 of OpenAI. This study exemplifies how domain adapted large language models enhance the efficiency and accuracy of extracting information from complex, unstructured geological descriptions. This offers new opportunities for geological analysis and modeling using vast amounts of data.

This review gives an overview of the development of machine learning in geoscience. A thorough analysis of the co-developments of machine learning applications throughout the last 70 years relates the recent enthusiasm for machine learning to developments in geoscience. I explore the shift of kriging towards a mainstream machine learning method and the historic application of neural networks in geoscience, following the general trend of machine learning enthusiasm through the decades. Furthermore, this chapter explores the shift from mathematical fundamentals and knowledge in software development towards skills in model validation, applied statistics, and integrated subject matter expertise. The review is interspersed with code examples to complement the theoretical foundations and illustrate model validation and machine learning explainability for science. The scope of this review includes various shallow machine learning methods, e.g. Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support-Vector Machines, and Gaussian Processes, as well as, deep neural networks, including feed-forward neural networks, convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and generative adversarial networks. Regarding geoscience, the review has a bias towards geophysics but aims to strike a balance with geochemistry, geostatistics, and geology, however excludes remote sensing, as this would exceed the scope. In general, I aim to provide context for the recent enthusiasm surrounding deep learning with respect to research, hardware, and software developments that enable successful application of shallow and deep machine learning in all disciplines of Earth science.

Supervised machine learning methods for geological mapping via remote sensing face limitations due to the scarcity of accurately labelled training data that can be addressed by unsupervised learning, such as dimensionality reduction and clustering. Dimensionality reduction methods have the potential to play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of geological maps. Although conventional dimensionality reduction methods may struggle with nonlinear data, unsupervised deep learning models such as autoencoders can model non-linear relationships. Stacked autoencoders feature multiple interconnected layers to capture hierarchical data representations useful for remote sensing data. We present an unsupervised machine learning-based framework for processing remote sensing data using stacked autoencoders for dimensionality reduction and k-means clustering for mapping geological units. We use Landsat 8, ASTER, and Sentinel-2 datasets to evaluate the framework for geological mapping of the Mutawintji region in Western New South Wales, Australia. We also compare stacked autoencoders with principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical autoencoders. Our results reveal that the framework produces accurate and interpretable geological maps, efficiently discriminating rock units. The results reveal that the combination of stacked autoencoders with Sentinel-2 data yields the best performance accuracy when compared to other combinations. We find that stacked autoencoders enable better extraction of complex and hierarchical representations of the input data when compared to canonical autoencoders and PCA. We also find that the generated maps align with prior geological knowledge of the study area while providing novel insights into geological structures.

Understanding Earth's subsurface is critical for energy transition, natural hazard mitigation, and planetary science. Yet subsurface analysis remains fragmented, with separate models required for structural interpretation, stratigraphic analysis, geobody segmentation, and property modeling-each tightly coupled to specific data distributions and task formulations. We introduce the Geological Everything Model 3D (GEM), a unified generative architecture that reformulates all these tasks as prompt-conditioned inference along latent structural frameworks derived from subsurface imaging. This formulation moves beyond task-specific models by enabling a shared inference mechanism, where GEM propagates human-provided prompts-such as well logs, masks, or structural sketches-along inferred structural frameworks to produce geologically coherent outputs. Through this mechanism, GEM achieves zero-shot generalization across tasks with heterogeneous prompt types, without retraining for new tasks or data sources. This capability emerges from a two-stage training process that combines self-supervised representation learning on large-scale field seismic data with adversarial fine-tuning using mixed prompts and labels across diverse subsurface tasks. GEM demonstrates broad applicability across surveys and tasks, including Martian radar stratigraphy analysis, structural interpretation in subduction zones, full seismic stratigraphic interpretation, geobody segmentation, and property modeling. By bridging expert knowledge with generative reasoning in a structurally aware manner, GEM lays the foundation for scalable, human-in-the-loop geophysical AI-transitioning from fragmented pipelines to a vertically integrated, promptable reasoning system. Project page: https://douyimin.github.io/GEM

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved huge success for their general knowledge and ability to solve a wide spectrum of tasks in natural language processing (NLP). Due to their impressive abilities, LLMs have shed light on potential inter-discipline applications to foster scientific discoveries of a specific domain by using artificial intelligence (AI for science, AI4S). In the meantime, utilizing NLP techniques in geoscience research and practice is wide and convoluted, contributing from knowledge extraction and document classification to question answering and knowledge discovery. In this work, we take the initial step to leverage LLM for science, through a rather straightforward approach. We try to specialize an LLM into geoscience, by further pre-training the model with a vast amount of texts in geoscience, as well as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) the resulting model with our custom collected instruction tuning dataset. These efforts result in a model GeoGalactica consisting of 30 billion parameters. To our best knowledge, it is the largest language model for the geoscience domain. More specifically, GeoGalactica is from further pre-training of Galactica. We train GeoGalactica over a geoscience-related text corpus containing 65 billion tokens curated from extensive data sources in the big science project Deep-time Digital Earth (DDE), preserving as the largest geoscience-specific text corpus. Then we fine-tune the model with 1 million pairs of instruction-tuning data consisting of questions that demand professional geoscience knowledge to answer. In this technical report, we will illustrate in detail all aspects of GeoGalactica, including data collection, data cleaning, base model selection, pre-training, SFT, and evaluation. We open-source our data curation tools and the checkpoints of GeoGalactica during the first 3/4 of pre-training.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved great success in general domains of natural language processing. In this paper, we bring LLMs to the realm of geoscience with the objective of advancing research and applications in this field. To this end, we present the first-ever LLM in geoscience, K2, alongside a suite of resources developed to further promote LLM research within geoscience. For instance, we have curated the first geoscience instruction tuning dataset, GeoSignal, which aims to align LLM responses to geoscience-related user queries. Additionally, we have established the first geoscience benchmark, GeoBench, to evaluate LLMs in the context of geoscience. In this work, we experiment with a complete recipe to adapt a pre-trained general-domain LLM to the geoscience domain. Specifically, we further train the LLaMA-7B model on 5.5B tokens of geoscience text corpus, including over 1 million pieces of geoscience literature, and utilize GeoSignal's supervised data to fine-tune the model. Moreover, we share a protocol that can efficiently gather domain-specific data and construct domain-supervised data, even in situations where manpower is scarce. Meanwhile, we equip K2 with the abilities of using tools to be a naive geoscience aide. Experiments conducted on the GeoBench demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and datasets on geoscience knowledge understanding and utilization.We open-source all the training data and K2 model checkpoints at https://github.com/davendw49/k2.

During a geosteering operation the well path is intentionally adjusted in response to the new data acquired while drilling. To achieve consistent high-quality decisions, especially when drilling in complex environments, decision support systems can help cope with high volumes of data and interpretation complexities. They can assimilate the real-time measurements into a probabilistic earth model and use the updated model for decision recommendations. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have enabled a wide range of methods that redistribute computational cost from on-line to off-line calculations. In this paper, we introduce two ML techniques into the geosteering decision support framework. Firstly, a complex earth model representation is generated using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Secondly, a commercial extra-deep electromagnetic simulator is represented using a Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the combination of the GAN and the FDNN in an ensemble randomized maximum likelihood data assimilation scheme provides real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty. This yields reduction of geological uncertainty ahead of the drill-bit from the measurements gathered behind and around the well bore.

Geologic map, as a fundamental diagram in geology science, provides critical insights into the structure and composition of Earth's subsurface and surface. These maps are indispensable in various fields, including disaster detection, resource exploration, and civil engineering. Despite their significance, current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) often fall short in geologic map understanding. This gap is primarily due to the challenging nature of cartographic generalization, which involves handling high-resolution map, managing multiple associated components, and requiring domain-specific knowledge. To quantify this gap, we construct GeoMap-Bench, the first-ever benchmark for evaluating MLLMs in geologic map understanding, which assesses the full-scale abilities in extracting, referring, grounding, reasoning, and analyzing. To bridge this gap, we introduce GeoMap-Agent, the inaugural agent designed for geologic map understanding, which features three modules: Hierarchical Information Extraction (HIE), Domain Knowledge Injection (DKI), and Prompt-enhanced Question Answering (PEQA). Inspired by the interdisciplinary collaboration among human scientists, an AI expert group acts as consultants, utilizing a diverse tool pool to comprehensively analyze questions. Through comprehensive experiments, GeoMap-Agent achieves an overall score of 0.811 on GeoMap-Bench, significantly outperforming 0.369 of GPT-4o. Our work, emPowering gEologic mAp holistiC undErstanding (PEACE) with MLLMs, paves the way for advanced AI applications in geology, enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of geological investigations.

Property prediction accuracy has long been a key parameter of machine learning in materials informatics. Accordingly, advanced models showing state-of-the-art performance turn into highly parameterized black boxes missing interpretability. Here, we present an elegant way to make their reasoning transparent. Human-readable text-based descriptions automatically generated within a suite of open-source tools are proposed as materials representation. Transformer language models pretrained on 2 million peer-reviewed articles take as input well-known terms, e.g., chemical composition, crystal symmetry, and site geometry. Our approach outperforms crystal graph networks by classifying four out of five analyzed properties if one considers all available reference data. Moreover, fine-tuned text-based models show high accuracy in the ultra-small data limit. Explanations of their internal machinery are produced using local interpretability techniques and are faithful and consistent with domain expert rationales. This language-centric framework makes accurate property predictions accessible to people without artificial-intelligence expertise.

Supervised machine learning models boast remarkable predictive capabilities. But can you trust your model? Will it work in deployment? What else can it tell you about the world? We want models to be not only good, but interpretable. And yet the task of interpretation appears underspecified. Papers provide diverse and sometimes non-overlapping motivations for interpretability, and offer myriad notions of what attributes render models interpretable. Despite this ambiguity, many papers proclaim interpretability axiomatically, absent further explanation. In this paper, we seek to refine the discourse on interpretability. First, we examine the motivations underlying interest in interpretability, finding them to be diverse and occasionally discordant. Then, we address model properties and techniques thought to confer interpretability, identifying transparency to humans and post-hoc explanations as competing notions. Throughout, we discuss the feasibility and desirability of different notions, and question the oft-made assertions that linear models are interpretable and that deep neural networks are not.

Surficial geologic mapping is essential for understanding Earth surface processes, addressing modern challenges such as climate change and national security, and supporting common applications in engineering and resource management. However, traditional mapping methods are labor-intensive, limiting spatial coverage and introducing potential biases. To address these limitations, we introduce EarthScape, a novel, AI-ready multimodal dataset specifically designed for surficial geologic mapping and Earth surface analysis. EarthScape integrates high-resolution aerial RGB and near-infrared (NIR) imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), multi-scale DEM-derived terrain features, and hydrologic and infrastructure vector data. The dataset provides detailed annotations for seven distinct surficial geologic classes encompassing various geological processes. We present a comprehensive data processing pipeline using open-sourced raw data and establish baseline benchmarks using different spatial modalities to demonstrate the utility of EarthScape. As a living dataset with a vision for expansion, EarthScape bridges the gap between computer vision and Earth sciences, offering a valuable resource for advancing research in multimodal learning, geospatial analysis, and geological mapping. Our code is available at https://github.com/masseygeo/earthscape.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

We present the NCS-models, a family of seismic foundation models pretrained on a large share of full-stack seismic cubes from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) available through the public DISKOS database. The model weights are open-sourced for the wider geoscience community. Foundation models trained with large-scale self-supervision are emerging as a promising basis for automatic seismic interpretation. However, most existing seismic models rely on limited or proprietary datasets, and it remains unclear how well natural-image foundation models transfer to seismic data. Our goals are to develop basin-scale seismic foundation models, provide practical recipes for scalable 3D training, and quantify the effects of basin-targeted pretraining and token dimensionality on downstream interpretation performance. Using masked autoencoders with Vision Transformer backbones, we pretrain models on a DISKOS-derived corpus of 3D time- and depth-migrated seismic volumes. The NCS-model variants use 2D, 2.5D multi-view, and 3D tokenization within a matched training setup. Transfer is evaluated on interpretation benchmarks using frozen backbones and a simple k-nearest neighbor classifier. Baselines include an ImageNet-pretrained MAE, a frontier vision foundation model, and a globally pretrained seismic model. Natural-image pretrained models do not reliably transfer, reflecting the large domain gap between natural images and seismic data. Seismic pretraining is necessary for robust transfer, and large-scale basin-targeted pretraining yields further gains over a smaller globally pretrained seismic baseline. The NCS-models achieve the best overall performance without fine-tuning, while 2.5D tokenization offers the strongest accuracy-efficiency tradeoff and the embeddings support similarity search for interactive interpretation.

Relative Geologic Time (RGT) estimation from seismic data is a cornerstone of subsurface structural modeling, depositional evolution analysis, and reservoir characterization, supporting horizon correlation and depositional system reconstruction. Yet accurate RGT estimation remains challenging: RGT is intrinsically a topologically constrained continuous field, in which local errors readily propagate globally and distort the overall result. Conventional methods rely heavily on priors, attribute extraction, and manual interaction, leading to cumbersome workflows. Existing deep-learning approaches mostly use a regression formulation with pixel-wise MSE/MAE losses, which struggle to capture thin horizons and fail to model the stratigraphic semantics of the RGT field, yielding limited generalization and unstable ordering across diverse structural and depositional settings. We propose RGT-Est, a deep-learning framework that transfers the optimization target from the topologically constrained continuous field into a differentiable sinusoidal space, which explicitly encodes the periodic stratigraphic semantics of RGT and alleviates over-smoothing of fine horizons. Pointwise, perceptual, and adversarial losses are jointly imposed in this space to enforce local fidelity, inter-layer consistency, and global structural plausibility, providing both fine-horizon discrimination and global stratigraphic awareness. An optional horizon-guidance module further accepts sparse 2D or 3D horizons as priors. Trained on synthetic data and evaluated on field surveys with densely faulted zones, large unconformities, steeply dipping strata, folded deformations, and clinoforms, RGT-Est achieves state-of-the-art performance among AI-based methods without horizon constraints, and attains substantially higher horizon-correlation accuracy and global topological consistency once sparse priors are incorporated.

We explore adapting foundation models (FMs) from the computer vision domain to geoscience. FMs, large neural networks trained on massive datasets, excel in diverse tasks with remarkable adaptability and generality. However, geoscience faces challenges like lacking curated training datasets and high computational costs for developing specialized FMs. This study considers adapting FMs from computer vision to geoscience, analyzing their scale, adaptability, and generality for geoscientific data analysis. We introduce a workflow that leverages existing computer vision FMs, fine-tuning them for geoscientific tasks, reducing development costs while enhancing accuracy. Through experiments, we demonstrate this workflow's effectiveness in broad applications to process and interpret geoscientific data of lunar images, seismic data, DAS arrays and so on. Our findings introduce advanced ML techniques to geoscience, proving the feasibility and advantages of cross-domain FMs adaptation, driving further advancements in geoscientific data analysis and offering valuable insights for FMs applications in other scientific domains.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^circ, and magnitudes 3 leq M_w leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves median normalized cross correlation above 0.93. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

We introduce Explanatory Learning (EL), a framework to let machines use existing knowledge buried in symbolic sequences -- e.g. explanations written in hieroglyphic -- by autonomously learning to interpret them. In EL, the burden of interpreting symbols is not left to humans or rigid human-coded compilers, as done in Program Synthesis. Rather, EL calls for a learned interpreter, built upon a limited collection of symbolic sequences paired with observations of several phenomena. This interpreter can be used to make predictions on a novel phenomenon given its explanation, and even to find that explanation using only a handful of observations, like human scientists do. We formulate the EL problem as a simple binary classification task, so that common end-to-end approaches aligned with the dominant empiricist view of machine learning could, in principle, solve it. To these models, we oppose Critical Rationalist Networks (CRNs), which instead embrace a rationalist view on the acquisition of knowledge. CRNs express several desired properties by construction, they are truly explainable, can adjust their processing at test-time for harder inferences, and can offer strong confidence guarantees on their predictions. As a final contribution, we introduce Odeen, a basic EL environment that simulates a small flatland-style universe full of phenomena to explain. Using Odeen as a testbed, we show how CRNs outperform empiricist end-to-end approaches of similar size and architecture (Transformers) in discovering explanations for novel phenomena.

Feature-based methods are commonly used to explain model predictions, but these methods often implicitly assume that interpretable features are readily available. However, this is often not the case for high-dimensional data, and it can be hard even for domain experts to mathematically specify which features are important. Can we instead automatically extract collections or groups of features that are aligned with expert knowledge? To address this gap, we present FIX (Features Interpretable to eXperts), a benchmark for measuring how well a collection of features aligns with expert knowledge. In collaboration with domain experts, we propose FIXScore, a unified expert alignment measure applicable to diverse real-world settings across cosmology, psychology, and medicine domains in vision, language and time series data modalities. With FIXScore, we find that popular feature-based explanation methods have poor alignment with expert-specified knowledge, highlighting the need for new methods that can better identify features interpretable to experts.

In recent years, the development of robust multi-source models has emerged in the Earth Observation (EO) field. These are models that leverage data from diverse sources to improve predictive accuracy when there is missing data. Despite these advancements, the factors influencing the varying effectiveness of such models remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluate the predictive performance of six state-of-the-art multi-source models in predicting scenarios where either a single data source is missing or only a single source is available. Our analysis reveals that the efficacy of these models is intricately tied to the nature of the task, the complementarity among data sources, and the model design. Surprisingly, we observe instances where the removal of certain data sources leads to improved predictive performance, challenging the assumption that incorporating all available data is always beneficial. These findings prompt critical reflections on model complexity and the necessity of all collected data sources, potentially shaping the way for more streamlined approaches in EO applications.

In many scenarios, the interpretability of machine learning models is a highly required but difficult task. To explain the individual predictions of such models, local model-agnostic approaches have been proposed. However, the process generating the explanations can be, for a user, as mysterious as the prediction to be explained. Furthermore, interpretability methods frequently lack theoretical guarantees, and their behavior on simple models is frequently unknown. While it is difficult, if not impossible, to ensure that an explainer behaves as expected on a cutting-edge model, we can at least ensure that everything works on simple, already interpretable models. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of Anchors (Ribeiro et al., 2018): a popular rule-based interpretability method that highlights a small set of words to explain a text classifier's decision. After formalizing its algorithm and providing useful insights, we demonstrate mathematically that Anchors produces meaningful results when used with linear text classifiers on top of a TF-IDF vectorization. We believe that our analysis framework can aid in the development of new explainability methods based on solid theoretical foundations.

Advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) drive interest in scientific applications, necessitating specialized benchmarks such as Earth science. Existing benchmarks either present a general science focus devoid of Earth science specificity or cover isolated subdomains, lacking holistic evaluation. Furthermore, current benchmarks typically neglect the assessment of LLMs' capabilities in open-ended scientific exploration. In this paper, we present a comprehensive and professional benchmark for the Earth sciences, designed to evaluate the capabilities of LLMs in scientific exploration within this domain, spanning from fundamental to advanced levels. Leveraging a corpus of 100,000 research papers, we first construct two Question Answering (QA) datasets: Earth-Iron, which offers extensive question coverage for broad assessment, and Earth-Silver, which features a higher level of difficulty to evaluate professional depth. These datasets encompass five Earth spheres, 114 disciplines, and 11 task categories, assessing foundational knowledge crucial for scientific exploration. Most notably, we introduce Earth-Gold with new metrics, a dataset comprising open-ended multi-turn dialogues specifically designed to evaluate the advanced capabilities of LLMs in scientific exploration, including methodology induction, limitation analysis, and concept proposal. Extensive experiments reveal limitations in 11 leading LLMs across different domains and tasks, highlighting considerable room for improvement in their scientific exploration capabilities. The benchmark is available on https://huggingface.co/ai-earth .

While computer science has seen remarkable advancements in foundation models, which remain underexplored in geoscience. Addressing this gap, we introduce a workflow to develop geophysical foundation models, including data preparation, model pre-training, and adaption to downstream tasks. From 192 globally collected 3-D seismic volumes, we create a carefully curated dataset of 2,286,422 2-D seismic images. Fully using these unlabeled images, we employ the self-supervised learning to pre-train a Transformer-based Seismic Foundation Model (SFM) for producing all-purpose seismic features that work across various tasks and surveys. Through experiments on seismic facies classification, geobody identification, interpolation, denoising, and inversion, our pre-trained model demonstrates versatility, generalization, scalability, and superior performance over baseline models. Conclusively, we provide a foundation model and vast dataset to advance AI in geophysics, addressing challenges (poor generalization, lacking labels, and repetitive training for task-specified models) of applying AI in geophysics and paving the way for future innovations in geoscience.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities across various natural language processing tasks. Their ability to process and generate viable text and code has made them ubiquitous in many fields, while their deployment as knowledge bases and "reasoning" tools remains an area of ongoing research. In geography, a growing body of literature has been focusing on evaluating LLMs' geographical knowledge and their ability to perform spatial reasoning. However, very little is still known about the internal functioning of these models, especially about how they process geographical information. In this chapter, we establish a novel framework for the study of geospatial mechanistic interpretability - using spatial analysis to reverse engineer how LLMs handle geographical information. Our aim is to advance our understanding of the internal representations that these complex models generate while processing geographical information - what one might call "how LLMs think about geographic information" if such phrasing was not an undue anthropomorphism. We first outline the use of probing in revealing internal structures within LLMs. We then introduce the field of mechanistic interpretability, discussing the superposition hypothesis and the role of sparse autoencoders in disentangling polysemantic internal representations of LLMs into more interpretable, monosemantic features. In our experiments, we use spatial autocorrelation to show how features obtained for placenames display spatial patterns related to their geographic location and can thus be interpreted geospatially, providing insights into how these models process geographical information. We conclude by discussing how our framework can help shape the study and use of foundation models in geography.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Simulations are the best approximation to experimental laboratories in astrophysics and cosmology. However, the complexity, richness, and large size of their outputs severely limit the interpretability of their predictions. We describe a new, unbiased, and machine learning based approach to obtaining useful scientific insights from a broad range of simulations. The method can be used on today's largest simulations and will be essential to solve the extreme data exploration and analysis challenges posed by the Exascale era. Furthermore, this concept is so flexible, that it will also enable explorative access to observed data. Our concept is based on applying nonlinear dimensionality reduction to learn compact representations of the data in a low-dimensional space. The simulation data is projected onto this space for interactive inspection, visual interpretation, sample selection, and local analysis. We present a prototype using a rotational invariant hyperspherical variational convolutional autoencoder, utilizing a power distribution in the latent space, and trained on galaxies from IllustrisTNG simulation. Thereby, we obtain a natural Hubble tuning fork like similarity space that can be visualized interactively on the surface of a sphere by exploiting the power of HiPS tilings in Aladin Lite.

This Perspective explores the transformative potential of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) in the geosciences. Users of geoscientific data repositories face challenges due to the complexity and diversity of data formats, inconsistent metadata practices, and a considerable number of unprocessed datasets. MAS possesses transformative potential for improving scientists' interaction with geoscientific data by enabling intelligent data processing, natural language interfaces, and collaborative problem-solving capabilities. We illustrate this approach with "PANGAEA GPT", a specialized MAS pipeline integrated with the diverse PANGAEA database for Earth and Environmental Science, demonstrating how MAS-driven workflows can effectively manage complex datasets and accelerate scientific discovery. We discuss how MAS can address current data challenges in geosciences, highlight advancements in other scientific fields, and propose future directions for integrating MAS into geoscientific data processing pipelines. In this Perspective, we show how MAS can fundamentally improve data accessibility, promote cross-disciplinary collaboration, and accelerate geoscientific discoveries.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

As language models accelerate scientific research by automating hypothesis generation and implementation, a new bottleneck emerges: evaluating and filtering hundreds of AI-generated ideas without exhaustive experimentation. We ask whether LMs can learn to forecast the empirical success of research ideas before any experiments are run. We study comparative empirical forecasting: given a benchmark-specific research goal and two candidate ideas, predict which will achieve better benchmark performance. We construct a dataset of 11,488 idea pairs grounded in objective outcomes from PapersWithCode. While off-the-shelf 8B-parameter models struggle (30% acc.), SFT dramatically boosts performance to 77.1%, outperforming GPT-5 (61.1%). By framing evaluation as a reasoning task via Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), we train models to discover latent reasoning paths, achieving 71.35% acc. with interpretable justifications. Through additional ablations and out-of-distribution tests, we show robustness to surface-level heuristics and transfer to both a cross-domain time-split test set and an independently constructed test set. Our results demonstrate that compute-efficient small language models can serve as effective, objective verifiers, offering a scalable path for autonomous scientific discovery.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Automatically extracting the geometric content from the hundreds of thousands of diagrams drawn in historical manuscripts would enable historians to study the diffusion of astronomical knowledge on a global scale. However, state-of-the-art vectorization methods, often designed to tackle modern data, are not adapted to the complexity and diversity of historical astronomical diagrams. Our contribution is thus twofold. First, we introduce a unique dataset of 303 astronomical diagrams from diverse traditions, ranging from the XIIth to the XVIIIth century, annotated with more than 3000 line segments, circles and arcs. Second, we develop a model that builds on DINO-DETR to enable the prediction of multiple geometric primitives. We show that it can be trained solely on synthetic data and accurately predict primitives on our challenging dataset. Our approach widely improves over the LETR baseline, which is restricted to lines, by introducing a meaningful parametrization for multiple primitives, jointly training for detection and parameter refinement, using deformable attention and training on rich synthetic data. Our dataset and code are available on our webpage.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Recent advances in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in general domains and demonstrated promise in multimodal mathematical reasoning. However, applying MLLMs to geometry problem solving (GPS) remains challenging due to lack of accurate step-by-step solution data and severe hallucinations during reasoning. In this paper, we propose GeoGen, a pipeline that can automatically generates step-wise reasoning paths for geometry diagrams. By leveraging the precise symbolic reasoning, GeoGen produces large-scale, high-quality question-answer pairs. To further enhance the logical reasoning ability of MLLMs, we train GeoLogic, a Large Language Model (LLM) using synthetic data generated by GeoGen. Serving as a bridge between natural language and symbolic systems, GeoLogic enables symbolic tools to help verifying MLLM outputs, making the reasoning process more rigorous and alleviating hallucinations. Experimental results show that our approach consistently improves the performance of MLLMs, achieving remarkable results on benchmarks for geometric reasoning tasks. This improvement stems from our integration of the strengths of LLMs and symbolic systems, which enables a more reliable and interpretable approach for the GPS task. Codes are available at https://github.com/ycpNotFound/GeoGen.

Scientific breakthroughs often emerge from synthesizing prior ideas into novel contributions. While language models (LMs) show promise in scientific discovery, their ability to perform this targeted, literature-grounded synthesis remains underexplored. We introduce insight anticipation, a generation task in which a model predicts a downstream paper's core insight from its foundational parent papers. To evaluate this capability, we develop GiantsBench, a benchmark of 17k examples across eight scientific domains, where each example consists of a set of parent papers paired with the core insight of a downstream paper. We evaluate models using an LM judge that scores similarity between generated and ground-truth insights, and show that these similarity scores correlate with expert human ratings. Finally, we present GIANTS-4B, an LM trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize insight anticipation using these similarity scores as a proxy reward. Despite its smaller open-source architecture, GIANTS-4B outperforms proprietary baselines and generalizes to unseen domains, achieving a 34% relative improvement in similarity score over gemini-3-pro. Human evaluations further show that GIANTS-4B produces insights that are more conceptually clear than those of the base model. In addition, SciJudge-30B, a third-party model trained to compare research abstracts by likely citation impact, predicts that insights generated by GIANTS-4B are more likely to lead to higher citations, preferring them over the base model in 68% of pairwise comparisons. We release our code, benchmark, and model to support future research in automated scientific discovery.

Interpretability is essential for machine learning models to be trusted and deployed in critical domains. However, existing methods for interpreting text models are often complex, lack mathematical foundations, and their performance is not guaranteed. In this paper, we propose FRED (Faithful and Robust Explainer for textual Documents), a novel method for interpreting predictions over text. FRED offers three key insights to explain a model prediction: (1) it identifies the minimal set of words in a document whose removal has the strongest influence on the prediction, (2) it assigns an importance score to each token, reflecting its influence on the model's output, and (3) it provides counterfactual explanations by generating examples similar to the original document, but leading to a different prediction. We establish the reliability of FRED through formal definitions and theoretical analyses on interpretable classifiers. Additionally, our empirical evaluation against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of FRED in providing insights into text models.

Recent progress in self-supervision has shown that pre-training large neural networks on vast amounts of unsupervised data can lead to substantial increases in generalization to downstream tasks. Such models, recently coined foundation models, have been transformational to the field of natural language processing. Variants have also been proposed for image data, but their applicability to remote sensing tasks is limited. To stimulate the development of foundation models for Earth monitoring, we propose a benchmark comprised of six classification and six segmentation tasks, which were carefully curated and adapted to be both relevant to the field and well-suited for model evaluation. We accompany this benchmark with a robust methodology for evaluating models and reporting aggregated results to enable a reliable assessment of progress. Finally, we report results for 20 baselines to gain information about the performance of existing models. We believe that this benchmark will be a driver of progress across a variety of Earth monitoring tasks.

Neural networks have achieved remarkable success across various fields. However, the lack of interpretability limits their practical use, particularly in critical decision-making scenarios. Post-hoc interpretability, which provides explanations for pre-trained models, is often at risk of robustness and fidelity. This has inspired a rising interest in self-interpretable neural networks, which inherently reveal the prediction rationale through the model structures. Although there exist surveys on post-hoc interpretability, a comprehensive and systematic survey of self-interpretable neural networks is still missing. To address this gap, we first collect and review existing works on self-interpretable neural networks and provide a structured summary of their methodologies from five key perspectives: attribution-based, function-based, concept-based, prototype-based, and rule-based self-interpretation. We also present concrete, visualized examples of model explanations and discuss their applicability across diverse scenarios, including image, text, graph data, and deep reinforcement learning. Additionally, we summarize existing evaluation metrics for self-interpretability and identify open challenges in this field, offering insights for future research. To support ongoing developments, we present a publicly accessible resource to track advancements in this domain: https://github.com/yangji721/Awesome-Self-Interpretable-Neural-Network.

Despite a sea of interpretability methods that can produce plausible explanations, the field has also empirically seen many failure cases of such methods. In light of these results, it remains unclear for practitioners how to use these methods and choose between them in a principled way. In this paper, we show that for moderately rich model classes (easily satisfied by neural networks), any feature attribution method that is complete and linear -- for example, Integrated Gradients and SHAP -- can provably fail to improve on random guessing for inferring model behaviour. Our results apply to common end-tasks such as characterizing local model behaviour, identifying spurious features, and algorithmic recourse. One takeaway from our work is the importance of concretely defining end-tasks: once such an end-task is defined, a simple and direct approach of repeated model evaluations can outperform many other complex feature attribution methods.

This paper presents FormationEval, an open multiple-choice question benchmark for evaluating language models on petroleum geoscience and subsurface disciplines. The dataset contains 505 questions across seven domains including petrophysics, petroleum geology and reservoir engineering, derived from three authoritative sources using a reasoning model with detailed instructions and a concept-based approach that avoids verbatim copying of copyrighted text. Each question includes source metadata to support traceability and audit. The evaluation covers 72 models from major providers including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and open-weight alternatives. The top performers achieve over 97\% accuracy, with Gemini 3 Pro Preview reaching 99.8\%, while tier and domain gaps persist. Among open-weight models, GLM-4.7 leads at 98.6\%, with several DeepSeek, Llama, Qwen and Mistral models also exceeding 93\%. The performance gap between open-weight and closed models is narrower than expected, with several lower-cost open-weight models exceeding 90\% accuracy. Petrophysics emerges as the most challenging domain across all models, while smaller models show wider performance variance. Residual length bias in the dataset (correct answers tend to be longer) is documented along with bias mitigation strategies applied during construction. The benchmark, evaluation code and results are publicly available.

Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally around the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.

We introduce a fully 3D, deep learning-based approach for the joint inversion of time-lapse surface gravity and seismic data for reconstructing subsurface density and velocity models. The target application of this proposed inversion approach is the prediction of subsurface CO2 plumes as a complementary tool for monitoring CO2 sequestration deployments. Our joint inversion technique outperforms deep learning-based gravity-only and seismic-only inversion models, achieving improved density and velocity reconstruction, accurate segmentation, and higher R-squared coefficients. These results indicate that deep learning-based joint inversion is an effective tool for CO_2 storage monitoring. Future work will focus on validating our approach with larger datasets, simulations with other geological storage sites, and ultimately field data.

Contemporary predictive models are hard to interpret as their deep nets exploit numerous complex relations between input elements. This work suggests a theoretical framework for model interpretability by measuring the contribution of relevant features to the functional entropy of the network with respect to the input. We rely on the log-Sobolev inequality that bounds the functional entropy by the functional Fisher information with respect to the covariance of the data. This provides a principled way to measure the amount of information contribution of a subset of features to the decision function. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method surpasses existing interpretability sampling-based methods on various data signals such as image, text, and audio.

Is natural-language-driven earth observation data analysis now feasible with the assistance of Large Language Models (LLMs)? For open science in service of public interest, feasibility requires reliably high accuracy, interactive latencies, low (sustainable) costs, open LLMs, and openly maintainable software -- hence, the challenge. What are the techniques and programming system requirements necessary for satisfying these constraints, and what is the corresponding development and maintenance burden in practice? This study lays the groundwork for exploring these questions, introducing an impactful earth science use-case, and providing a software framework with evaluation data and metrics, along with initial results from employing model scaling, prompt-optimization, and inference-time scaling optimization techniques. While we attain high accuracy (near 100%) across 10 of 11 metrics, the analysis further considers cost (token-spend), latency, and maintainability across this space of techniques. Finally, we enumerate opportunities for further research, general programming and evaluation framework development, and ongoing work for a comprehensive, deployable solution. This is a call for collaboration and contribution.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent ML / AI concepts, starting from natural language processes (NLP) applied to economic sectors' (textual) descriptions using embedding and autoencoders (AE), going through the classification of defaultable firms on the base of a wide range of economic features using gradient boosting machines (GBM) and calibrating their probabilities paying due attention to the treatment of unbalanced samples. Finally we assign credit ratings through genetic algorithms (differential evolution, DE). Model interpretability is achieved by implementing recent techniques such as SHAP and LIME, which explain predictions locally in features' space.

Large language models (LLMs) have displayed an impressive ability to harness natural language to perform complex tasks. In this work, we explore whether we can leverage this learned ability to find and explain patterns in data. Specifically, given a pre-trained LLM and data examples, we introduce interpretable autoprompting (iPrompt), an algorithm that generates a natural-language string explaining the data. iPrompt iteratively alternates between generating explanations with an LLM and reranking them based on their performance when used as a prompt. Experiments on a wide range of datasets, from synthetic mathematics to natural-language understanding, show that iPrompt can yield meaningful insights by accurately finding groundtruth dataset descriptions. Moreover, the prompts produced by iPrompt are simultaneously human-interpretable and highly effective for generalization: on real-world sentiment classification datasets, iPrompt produces prompts that match or even improve upon human-written prompts for GPT-3. Finally, experiments with an fMRI dataset show the potential for iPrompt to aid in scientific discovery. All code for using the methods and data here is made available on Github.

Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON (Physics-Optimized Seismic Energy Inference and Detection Operating Network), a physics-informed energy-based model for unified multi-task seismic event prediction, alongside the Poseidon dataset -- the largest open-source global earthquake catalog comprising 2.8 million events spanning 30 years. POSEIDON embeds fundamental seismological principles, including the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship and Omori-Utsu aftershock decay law, as learnable constraints within an energy-based modeling framework. The architecture simultaneously addresses three interconnected prediction tasks: aftershock sequence identification, tsunami generation potential, and foreshock detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that POSEIDON achieves state-of-the-art performance across all tasks, outperforming gradient boosting, random forest, and CNN baselines with the highest average F1 score among all compared methods. Crucially, the learned physics parameters converge to scientifically interpretable values -- Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 0.752 and Omori-Utsu parameters p=0.835, c=0.1948 days -- falling within established seismological ranges while enhancing rather than compromising predictive accuracy. The Poseidon dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/BorisKriuk/Poseidon, providing pre-computed energy features, spatial grid indices, and standardized quality metrics to advance physics-informed seismic research.

Earth observation (EO) applications involving complex and heterogeneous data sources are commonly approached with machine learning models. However, there is a common assumption that data sources will be persistently available. Different situations could affect the availability of EO sources, like noise, clouds, or satellite mission failures. In this work, we assess the impact of missing temporal and static EO sources in trained models across four datasets with classification and regression tasks. We compare the predictive quality of different methods and find that some are naturally more robust to missing data. The Ensemble strategy, in particular, achieves a prediction robustness up to 100%. We evidence that missing scenarios are significantly more challenging in regression than classification tasks. Finally, we find that the optical view is the most critical view when it is missing individually.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

Seismic processing transforms raw data into subsurface images essential for geophysical applications. Traditional methods face challenges, such as noisy data, and manual parameter tuning, among others. Recently deep learning approaches have proposed alternative solutions to some of these problems. However, important challenges of existing deep learning approaches are spatially inconsistent results across neighboring seismic gathers and lack of user-control. We address these limitations by introducing ContextSeisNet, an in-context learning model, to seismic demultiple processing. Our approach conditions predictions on a support set of spatially related example pairs: neighboring common-depth point gathers from the same seismic line and their corresponding labels. This allows the model to learn task-specific processing behavior at inference time by observing how similar gathers should be processed, without any retraining. This method provides both flexibility through user-defined examples and improved lateral consistency across seismic lines. On synthetic data, ContextSeisNet outperforms a U-Net baseline quantitatively and demonstrates enhanced spatial coherence between neighboring gathers. On field data, our model achieves superior lateral consistency compared to both traditional Radon demultiple and the U-Net baseline. Relative to the U-Net, ContextSeisNet also delivers improved near-offset performance and more complete multiple removal. Notably, ContextSeisNet achieves comparable field data performance despite being trained on 90% less data, demonstrating substantial data efficiency. These results establish ContextSeisNet as a practical approach for spatially consistent seismic demultiple with potential applicability to other seismic processing tasks.

This paper explores the use of large language models (LLMs) as research tools in the history, philosophy, and sociology of science (HPSS). LLMs are remarkably effective at processing unstructured text and inferring meaning from context, offering new affordances that challenge long-standing divides between computational and interpretive methods. This raises both opportunities and challenges for HPSS, which emphasizes interpretive methodologies and understands meaning as context-dependent, ambiguous, and historically situated. We argue that HPSS is uniquely positioned not only to benefit from LLMs' capabilities but also to interrogate their epistemic assumptions and infrastructural implications. To this end, we first offer a concise primer on LLM architectures and training paradigms tailored to non-technical readers. We frame LLMs not as neutral tools but as epistemic infrastructures that encode assumptions about meaning, context, and similarity, conditioned by their training data, architecture, and patterns of use. We then examine how computational techniques enhanced by LLMs, such as structuring data, detecting patterns, and modeling dynamic processes, can be applied to support interpretive research in HPSS. Our analysis compares full-context and generative models, outlines strategies for domain and task adaptation (e.g., continued pretraining, fine-tuning, and retrieval-augmented generation), and evaluates their respective strengths and limitations for interpretive inquiry in HPSS. We conclude with four lessons for integrating LLMs into HPSS: (1) model selection involves interpretive trade-offs; (2) LLM literacy is foundational; (3) HPSS must define its own benchmarks and corpora; and (4) LLMs should enhance, not replace, interpretive methods.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

We introduce a family of chronologically consistent, instruction-tuned large language models to eliminate lookahead bias. Each model is trained only on data available before a clearly defined knowledge-cutoff date, ensuring strict temporal separation from any post-cutoff data. The resulting framework offers (i) a simple, conversational chat interface, (ii) fully open, fixed model weights that guarantee replicability, and (iii) a conservative lower bound on forecast accuracy, isolating the share of predictability that survives once training leakage is removed. Together, these features provide researchers with an easy-to-use generative AI tool useful for a wide range of prediction tasks that is free of lookahead bias.

Data-driven approaches like deep learning are rapidly advancing planetary science, particularly in Mars exploration. Despite recent progress, most existing benchmarks remain confined to closed-set supervised visual tasks and do not support text-guided retrieval for geospatial discovery. We introduce MarsRetrieval, a retrieval benchmark for evaluating vision-language models for Martian geospatial discovery. MarsRetrieval includes three tasks: (1) paired image-text retrieval, (2) landform retrieval, and (3) global geo-localization, covering multiple spatial scales and diverse geomorphic origins. We propose a unified retrieval-centric protocol to benchmark multimodal embedding architectures, including contrastive dual-tower encoders and generative vision-language models. Our evaluation shows MarsRetrieval is challenging: even strong foundation models often fail to capture domain-specific geomorphic distinctions. We further show that domain-specific fine-tuning is critical for generalizable geospatial discovery in planetary settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-stat-Sustech/MarsRetrieval

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for forecasting scientific progress under controlled knowledge constraints. We present CUSP (Cutoff-conditioned Unseen Scientific Progress), a multi-disciplinary and event-level benchmark that evaluates scientific forecasting in AI systems through feasibility assessment, mechanistic reasoning, generative solution design, and temporal prediction. Across 4,760 scientific events, we observe systematic and domain-dependent limitations in current frontier models. While models can identify plausible research directions from competing candidates, they fail to reliably predict whether scientific advances will be realized and systematically misestimate when they will occur. Performance is highly heterogeneous across domains, with the timing of AI progress more predictable than advances in biology, chemistry, and physics. Performance is largely insensitive to whether events occur before or after the training cutoff, suggesting these limitations cannot be explained solely by knowledge exposure in training data. Under controlled information access, additional pre-cutoff knowledge improves performance but does not close the gap to full-information settings, which becomes more pronounced for high-citation advances. Models also exhibit systematic overconfidence and strong response biases, indicating unreliable uncertainty estimation. Taken together, current AI systems fall short as predictive tools for scientific progress. Access to prior knowledge does not translate into reliable forecasting, and performance benefits more from post-event information than from forward-looking prediction.

Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) promises a path toward fully understanding how neural networks make their predictions. Prior work demonstrates that even when trained to perform simple arithmetic, models can implement a variety of algorithms (sometimes concurrently) depending on initialization and hyperparameters. Does this mean neuron-level interpretability techniques have limited applicability? We argue that high-dimensional neural networks can learn low-dimensional representations of their training data that are useful beyond simply making good predictions. Such representations can be understood through the mechanistic interpretability lens and provide insights that are surprisingly faithful to human-derived domain knowledge. This indicates that such approaches to interpretability can be useful for deriving a new understanding of a problem from models trained to solve it. As a case study, we extract nuclear physics concepts by studying models trained to reproduce nuclear data.

Many learning algorithms such as kernel machines, nearest neighbors, clustering, or anomaly detection, are based on the concept of 'distance' or 'similarity'. Before similarities are used for training an actual machine learning model, we would like to verify that they are bound to meaningful patterns in the data. In this paper, we propose to make similarities interpretable by augmenting them with an explanation in terms of input features. We develop BiLRP, a scalable and theoretically founded method to systematically decompose similarity scores on pairs of input features. Our method can be expressed as a composition of LRP explanations, which were shown in previous works to scale to highly nonlinear functions. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that BiLRP robustly explains complex similarity models, e.g. built on VGG-16 deep neural network features. Additionally, we apply our method to an open problem in digital humanities: detailed assessment of similarity between historical documents such as astronomical tables. Here again, BiLRP provides insight and brings verifiability into a highly engineered and problem-specific similarity model.

What would it mean to have a scientific understanding of AI? Models are not static objects: they are snapshots of time-evolving processes shaped by data, objectives, architectures, and optimization dynamics. Yet much of AI research treats models as fixed artifacts, analyzing behaviors after training rather than asking why they emerge. This position paper argues that a science of AI must move beyond post-hoc fixes and study the training dynamics that produce model behavior. Such a science should support progressively stronger forms of understanding: predicting outcomes from early training signals, intervening when trajectories go wrong, and ultimately designing training procedures that more reliably produce desired properties. Scaling laws have made prediction routine for loss; the challenge is extending this success to capabilities, biases, robustness, and safety-relevant behaviors. We articulate requirements for such theories grounded in the history and philosophy of science, examine progress in mechanistic interpretability, fairness, memorization, and simplicity bias, and identify concrete open problems.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Earth Observation (EO) Foundation Modelling (FM) holds great promise for simplifying and improving the use of EO data for diverse real-world tasks. However, most existing models require additional adaptation before they can be used and are structured rigidly around particular data sources or training approaches. To address this, we take inspiration from large language models, where diverse tasks, both pre-training and downstream, are implicitly captured through next-token prediction over unified token sequences, leveraging the structure and diversity of the training data. We introduce SITS-DECO (Satellite Image Time Series-DECoder Only), a proof-of-concept generative model that applies this unified-sequence framing to EO data. Using a simple GPT-style decoder-only architecture, and demonstrate its ability to perform useful EO tasks (pixel-wise, multi-temporal, multi-modal crop-type classification) in a purely generative framework. Through symbolic prompting, we show that the model can perform multiple supervised and self-supervised tasks within a single unified architecture, without task- or modality-specific adaptation. Despite its simplicity and lack of spatial context, SITS-DECO outperforms much larger EO foundation models on crop-type classification (PASTIS-R) demonstrating that dense temporal sequence modelling is a critical missing ingredient in the current paradigm. This work exemplifies a data-centric modelling paradigm in which capability arises from the diversity and structure of the training data rather than from architectural complexity. SITS-DECO provides a lightweight, practical route to multi-modal, multi-task EO modelling, and a conceptual bridge toward future generative EO foundation models.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Contemporary automated scientific discovery has focused on agents for generating scientific experiments, while systems that perform higher-level scientific activities such as theory building remain underexplored. In this work, we formulate the problem of synthesizing theories consisting of qualitative and quantitative laws from large corpora of scientific literature. We study theory generation at scale, using 13.7k source papers to synthesize 2.9k theories, examining how generation using literature-grounding versus parametric knowledge, and accuracy-focused versus novelty-focused generation objectives change theory properties. Our experiments show that, compared to using parametric LLM memory for generation, our literature-supported method creates theories that are significantly better at both matching existing evidence and at predicting future results from 4.6k subsequently-written papers

Interpretable machine learning has exploded as an area of interest over the last decade, sparked by the rise of increasingly large datasets and deep neural networks. Simultaneously, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide array of tasks, offering a chance to rethink opportunities in interpretable machine learning. Notably, the capability to explain in natural language allows LLMs to expand the scale and complexity of patterns that can be given to a human. However, these new capabilities raise new challenges, such as hallucinated explanations and immense computational costs. In this position paper, we start by reviewing existing methods to evaluate the emerging field of LLM interpretation (both interpreting LLMs and using LLMs for explanation). We contend that, despite their limitations, LLMs hold the opportunity to redefine interpretability with a more ambitious scope across many applications, including in auditing LLMs themselves. We highlight two emerging research priorities for LLM interpretation: using LLMs to directly analyze new datasets and to generate interactive explanations.

Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Predicting wildfire risk is a reasoning-intensive spatial problem that requires the integration of visual, climatic, and geographic factors to infer continuous risk maps. Existing methods lack the causal reasoning and multimodal understanding required for reliable generalization. We introduce FireScope-Bench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark that couples Sentinel-2 imagery and climate data with expert-defined risk rasters across the USA, and real wildfire events in Europe for cross-continental evaluation. Building on this dataset, we propose FireScope, a VLM-based reasoning-to-generation framework that learns from both reinforcement learning and visual supervision to predict risk rasters with complementary reasoning traces. When trained in the USA and tested in Europe, FireScope achieves substantial performance gains, while expert feedback and automated analysis confirm that its reasoning traces are faithful and semantically meaningful. Our findings demonstrate that reasoning can ground raster prediction models, improving both generalization and interpretability. To our knowledge, this is the first framework to (1) demonstrate that language-based reasoning can improve generalization in visual generation, (2) propose a high-resolution wildfire risk model that can be applied across continents, and (3) enable systematic studies of robust cross-continental generalization for multimodal fire risk models. We believe that FireScope-Bench has the potential to serve as a foundation for advancing reasoning-driven, interpretable and generalizable spatial modeling. Data and source code will be made publicly available.

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a setting where general-purpose models struggle without task-specific adaptation. We introduce an end-to-end framework that trains LLMs to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts using realized disruption outcomes as supervision. The resulting model substantially outperforms strong baselines - including GPT-5 - on accuracy, calibration, and precision. We also show that training induces more structured and reliable probabilistic reasoning without explicit prompting. These results suggest a general pathway for training domain-specific forecasting models that produce decision-ready signals. To support transparency we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/supply-chain-predictions

What does it mean to understand the world? Contemporary world models often operationalize understanding as accurate future prediction in latent or observation space. Developmental cognitive science, however, suggests a different view: human understanding emerges through the construction of internal theories of how the world works, even before mature language is acquired. Inspired by this theory-building view of cognition, we introduce Learning-to-Theorize, a learning paradigm for inferring explicit explanatory theories of the world from raw, non-textual observations. We instantiate this paradigm with the Neural Theorizer (NEO), a probabilistic neural model that induces latent programs as a learned Language of Thought and executes them through a shared transition model. In NEO, a theory is represented as an executable, compositional program whose learned primitives can be systematically recombined to explain novel phenomena. Experiments show that this formulation enables explanation-driven generalization, allowing observations to be understood in terms of the programs that generate them.

We present PAPERCLIP (Proposal Abstracts Provide an Effective Representation for Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training), a method which associates astronomical observations imaged by telescopes with natural language using a neural network model. The model is fine-tuned from a pre-trained Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) model using successful observing proposal abstracts and corresponding downstream observations, with the abstracts optionally summarized via guided generation using large language models (LLMs). Using observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) as an example, we show that the fine-tuned model embodies a meaningful joint representation between observations and natural language through tests targeting image retrieval (i.e., finding the most relevant observations using natural language queries) and description retrieval (i.e., querying for astrophysical object classes and use cases most relevant to a given observation). Our study demonstrates the potential for using generalist foundation models rather than task-specific models for interacting with astronomical data by leveraging text as an interface.

Hypothetical induction is recognized as the main reasoning type when scientists make observations about the world and try to propose hypotheses to explain those observations. Past research on hypothetical induction is under a constrained setting: (1) the observation annotations in the dataset are carefully manually handpicked sentences (resulting in a close-domain setting); and (2) the ground truth hypotheses are mostly commonsense knowledge, making the task less challenging. In this work, we tackle these problems by proposing the first dataset for social science academic hypotheses discovery, with the final goal to create systems that automatically generate valid, novel, and helpful scientific hypotheses, given only a pile of raw web corpus. Unlike previous settings, the new dataset requires (1) using open-domain data (raw web corpus) as observations; and (2) proposing hypotheses even new to humanity. A multi-module framework is developed for the task, including three different feedback mechanisms to boost performance, which exhibits superior performance in terms of both GPT-4 based and expert-based evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work showing that LLMs are able to generate novel (''not existing in literature'') and valid (''reflecting reality'') scientific hypotheses.

As machine learning systems become ubiquitous, there has been a surge of interest in interpretable machine learning: systems that provide explanation for their outputs. These explanations are often used to qualitatively assess other criteria such as safety or non-discrimination. However, despite the interest in interpretability, there is very little consensus on what interpretable machine learning is and how it should be measured. In this position paper, we first define interpretability and describe when interpretability is needed (and when it is not). Next, we suggest a taxonomy for rigorous evaluation and expose open questions towards a more rigorous science of interpretable machine learning.

Interpretable machine learning aims to provide transparent models whose decision-making processes can be readily understood by humans. Recent advances in rule-based approaches, such as expressive Boolean formulas (BoolXAI), offer faithful and compact representations of model behavior. However, for non-technical stakeholders, main challenges remain in practice: (i) selecting semantically meaningful features and (ii) translating formal logical rules into accessible explanations. In this work, we propose BoolXLLM , as a hybrid framework that integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) into the end-to-end pipeline of Boolean rule learning. We augment BoolXAI , an expressive Boolean rule-based classifier, with LLMs at three critical stages: (1) feature selection, where LLMs guide the identification of domain-relevant variables; (2) threshold recommendation, where LLMs propose semantically meaningful discretization strategies for numerical features; and (3) rule compression and interpretation, where Boolean rules are translated into natural language explanations at both global and local levels. This integration bridges formal, faithful explanations with human-understandable narratives. This allows build an explainable AI system that is both theoretically grounded and accessible to non-experts. Early empirical results demonstrate that LLM-assisted pipelines improve interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance. Our work highlights the promise of combining symbolic reasoning with language-based models for human-centered explainability.

With the rise of deep neural networks, especially in safety-critical applications, robustness and interpretability are crucial to ensure their trustworthiness. Recent advances in 3D-aware classifiers that map image features to volumetric representation of objects, rather than relying solely on 2D appearance, have greatly improved robustness on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Such classifiers have not yet been studied from the perspective of interpretability. Meanwhile, current concept-based XAI methods often neglect OOD robustness. We aim to address both aspects with CAVE - Concept Aware Volumes for Explanations - a new direction that unifies interpretability and robustness in image classification. We design CAVE as a robust and inherently interpretable classifier that learns sparse concepts from 3D object representation. We further propose 3D Consistency (3D-C), a metric to measure spatial consistency of concepts. Unlike existing metrics that rely on human-annotated parts on images, 3D-C leverages ground-truth object meshes as a common surface to project and compare explanations across concept-based methods. CAVE achieves competitive classification performance while discovering consistent and meaningful concepts across images in various OOD settings. Code available at https://github.com/phamleyennhi/CAVE.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Interpretability research often aims to predict how a model will respond to targeted interventions on specific mechanisms. However, it rarely predicts how a model will respond to unseen input data. This paper explores the promises and challenges of interpretability as a tool for predicting out-of-distribution (OOD) model behavior. Specifically, we investigate the correspondence between attention patterns and OOD generalization in hundreds of Transformer models independently trained on a synthetic classification task. These models exhibit several distinct systematic generalization rules OOD, forming a diverse population for correlational analysis. In this setting, we find that simple observational tools from interpretability can predict OOD performance. In particular, when in-distribution attention exhibits hierarchical patterns, the model is likely to generalize hierarchically on OOD data -- even when the rule's implementation does not rely on these hierarchical patterns, according to ablation tests. Our findings offer a proof-of-concept to motivate further interpretability work on predicting unseen model behavior.

Foundation models are premised on the idea that sequence prediction can uncover deeper domain understanding, much like how Kepler's predictions of planetary motion later led to the discovery of Newtonian mechanics. However, evaluating whether these models truly capture deeper structure remains a challenge. We develop a technique for evaluating foundation models that examines how they adapt to synthetic datasets generated from some postulated world model. Our technique measures whether the foundation model's inductive bias aligns with the world model, and so we refer to it as an inductive bias probe. Across multiple domains, we find that foundation models can excel at their training tasks yet fail to develop inductive biases towards the underlying world model when adapted to new tasks. We particularly find that foundation models trained on orbital trajectories consistently fail to apply Newtonian mechanics when adapted to new physics tasks. Further analysis reveals that these models behave as if they develop task-specific heuristics that fail to generalize.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Deep neural networks often rely on spurious correlations to make predictions, which hinders generalization beyond training environments. For instance, models that associate cats with bed backgrounds can fail to predict the existence of cats in other environments without beds. Mitigating spurious correlations is crucial in building trustworthy models. However, the existing works lack transparency to offer insights into the mitigation process. In this work, we propose an interpretable framework, Discover and Cure (DISC), to tackle the issue. With human-interpretable concepts, DISC iteratively 1) discovers unstable concepts across different environments as spurious attributes, then 2) intervenes on the training data using the discovered concepts to reduce spurious correlation. Across systematic experiments, DISC provides superior generalization ability and interpretability than the existing approaches. Specifically, it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on an object recognition task and a skin-lesion classification task by 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis and guarantees to understand the benefits of models trained by DISC. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Wuyxin/DISC.

We present TerraMind, the first any-to-any generative, multimodal foundation model for Earth observation (EO). Unlike other multimodal models, TerraMind is pretrained on dual-scale representations combining both token-level and pixel-level data across modalities. On a token level, TerraMind encodes high-level contextual information to learn cross-modal relationships, while on a pixel level, TerraMind leverages fine-grained representations to capture critical spatial nuances. We pretrained TerraMind on nine geospatial modalities of a global, large-scale dataset. In this paper, we demonstrate that (i) TerraMind's dual-scale early fusion approach unlocks a range of zero-shot and few-shot applications for Earth observation, (ii) TerraMind introduces "Thinking-in-Modalities" (TiM) -- the capability of generating additional artificial data during finetuning and inference to improve the model output -- and (iii) TerraMind achieves beyond state-of-the-art performance in community-standard benchmarks for EO like PANGAEA. The pretraining dataset, the model weights, and our code is open-sourced under a permissive license.

The continuous operation of Earth-orbiting satellites generates vast and ever-growing archives of Remote Sensing (RS) images. Natural language presents an intuitive interface for accessing, querying, and interpreting the data from such archives. However, existing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are predominantly trained on web-scraped, noisy image-text data, exhibiting limited exposure to the specialized domain of RS. This deficiency results in poor performance on RS-specific tasks, as commonly used datasets often lack detailed, scientifically accurate textual descriptions and instead emphasize solely on attributes like date and location. To bridge this critical gap, we introduce GAIA, a novel dataset designed for multi-scale, multi-sensor, and multi-modal RS image analysis. GAIA comprises of 205,150 meticulously curated RS image-text pairs, representing a diverse range of RS modalities associated to different spatial resolutions. Unlike existing vision-language datasets in RS, GAIA specifically focuses on capturing a diverse range of RS applications, providing unique information about environmental changes, natural disasters, and various other dynamic phenomena. The dataset provides a spatially and temporally balanced distribution, spanning across the globe, covering the last 25 years with a balanced temporal distribution of observations. GAIA's construction involved a two-stage process: (1) targeted web-scraping of images and accompanying text from reputable RS-related sources, and (2) generation of five high-quality, scientifically grounded synthetic captions for each image using carefully crafted prompts that leverage the advanced vision-language capabilities of GPT-4o. Our extensive experiments, including fine-tuning of CLIP and BLIP2 models, demonstrate that GAIA significantly improves performance on RS image classification, cross-modal retrieval and image captioning tasks.

High-throughput data generation methods and machine learning (ML) algorithms have given rise to a new era of computational materials science by learning relationships among composition, structure, and properties and by exploiting such relations for design. However, to build these connections, materials data must be translated into a numerical form, called a representation, that can be processed by a machine learning model. Datasets in materials science vary in format (ranging from images to spectra), size, and fidelity. Predictive models vary in scope and property of interests. Here, we review context-dependent strategies for constructing representations that enable the use of materials as inputs or outputs of machine learning models. Furthermore, we discuss how modern ML techniques can learn representations from data and transfer chemical and physical information between tasks. Finally, we outline high-impact questions that have not been fully resolved and thus, require further investigation.

Recent advances in mechanistic interpretability have revealed that large language models (LLMs) develop internal representations corresponding not only to concrete entities but also distinct, human-understandable abstract concepts and behaviour. Moreover, these hidden features can be directly manipulated to steer model behaviour. However, it remains an open question whether this phenomenon is unique to models trained on inherently structured data (ie. language, images) or if it is a general property of foundation models. In this work, we investigate the internal representations of a large physics-focused foundation model. Inspired by recent work identifying single directions in activation space for complex behaviours in LLMs, we extract activation vectors from the model during forward passes over simulation datasets for different physical regimes. We then compute "delta" representations between the two regimes. These delta tensors act as concept directions in activation space, encoding specific physical features. By injecting these concept directions back into the model during inference, we can steer its predictions, demonstrating causal control over physical behaviours, such as inducing or removing some particular physical feature from a simulation. These results suggest that scientific foundation models learn generalised representations of physical principles. They do not merely rely on superficial correlations and patterns in the simulations. Our findings open new avenues for understanding and controlling scientific foundation models and has implications for AI-enabled scientific discovery.

Advances in underwater imaging enable the collection of extensive seafloor image datasets that are necessary for monitoring important benthic ecosystems. The ability to collect seafloor imagery has outpaced our capacity to analyze it, hindering expedient mobilization of this crucial environmental information. Recent machine learning approaches provide opportunities to increase the efficiency with which seafloor image datasets are analyzed, yet large and consistent datasets necessary to support development of such approaches are scarce. Here we present BenthicNet: a global compilation of seafloor imagery designed to support the training and evaluation of large-scale image recognition models. An initial set of over 11.4 million images was collected and curated to represent a diversity of seafloor environments using a representative subset of 1.3 million images. These are accompanied by 2.6 million annotations translated to the CATAMI scheme, which span 190,000 of the images. A large deep learning model was trained on this compilation and preliminary results suggest it has utility for automating large and small-scale image analysis tasks. The compilation and model are made openly available for use by the scientific community at https://doi.org/10.20383/103.0614.

Time-series data is critical across many scientific and industrial domains, including environmental analysis, agriculture, transportation, and finance. However, mining insights from this data typically requires deep domain expertise, a process that is both time-consuming and labor-intensive. In this paper, we propose Insight Miner, a large-scale multimodal model (LMM) designed to generate high-quality, comprehensive time-series descriptions enriched with domain-specific knowledge. To facilitate this, we introduce TS-InsightsAvailable at \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/zhykoties/time-series-language-alignment{https://huggingface.co/datasets/zhykoties/time-series-language-alignment}.}, the first general-domain dataset for time series and language alignment. TS-Insights contains 100k time-series windows sampled from 20 forecasting datasets. We construct this dataset using a novel agentic workflow, where we use statistical tools to extract features from raw time series before synthesizing them into coherent trend descriptions with GPT-4. Following instruction tuning on TS-Insights, Insight Miner outperforms state-of-the-art multimodal models, such as LLaVA liu2023llava and GPT-4, in generating time-series descriptions and insights. Our findings suggest a promising direction for leveraging LMMs in time series analysis, and serve as a foundational step toward enabling LLMs to interpret time series as a native input modality.

From crop mapping to flood detection, machine learning in remote sensing has a wide range of societally beneficial applications. The commonalities between remote sensing data in these applications present an opportunity for pretrained machine learning models tailored to remote sensing to reduce the labeled data and effort required to solve individual tasks. However, such models must be: (i) flexible enough to ingest input data of varying sensor modalities and shapes (i.e., of varying spatial and temporal dimensions), and (ii) able to model Earth surface phenomena of varying scales and types. To solve this gap, we present Galileo, a family of pretrained remote sensing models designed to flexibly process multimodal remote sensing data. We also introduce a novel and highly effective self-supervised learning approach to learn both large- and small-scale features, a challenge not addressed by previous models. Our Galileo models obtain state-of-the-art results across diverse remote sensing tasks.

Latent reasoning models (LRMs) have attracted significant research interest due to their low inference cost (relative to explicit reasoning models) and theoretical ability to explore multiple reasoning paths in parallel. However, these benefits come at the cost of reduced interpretability: LRMs are difficult to monitor because they do not reason in natural language. This paper presents an investigation into LRM interpretability by examining two state-of-the-art LRMs. First, we find that latent reasoning tokens are often unnecessary for LRMs' predictions; on logical reasoning datasets, LRMs can almost always produce the same final answers without using latent reasoning at all. This underutilization of reasoning tokens may partially explain why LRMs do not consistently outperform explicit reasoning methods and raises doubts about the stated role of these tokens in prior work. Second, we demonstrate that when latent reasoning tokens are necessary for performance, we can decode gold reasoning traces up to 65-93% of the time for correctly predicted instances. This suggests LRMs often implement the expected solution rather than an uninterpretable reasoning process. Finally, we present a method to decode a verified natural language reasoning trace from latent tokens without knowing a gold reasoning trace a priori, demonstrating that it is possible to find a verified trace for a majority of correct predictions but only a minority of incorrect predictions. Our findings highlight that current LRMs largely encode interpretable processes, and interpretability itself can be a signal of prediction correctness.

Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.

Forecasting innovation, intended as the emergence of new technological combinations, is a fundamental challenge for science and policy. We show that forthcoming combinations leave an early trace in the collective language of patents, with predictive signals detectable even decades in advance. We show that signal is not attributable to any single inventor, but emerges as a collective shift in how technologies are described across thousands of patents. To this end, we introduce TechToken, a transformer-based model that treats technologies, classified by International Patent Classification codes, as words in its vocabulary, learning the language of technologies by embedding these codes during fine-tuning. We define context similarity between code embeddings as a measure of linguistic convergence and show that it accurately predicts first technological combinations. TechToken also improves general representation quality, outperforming state-of-the-art models across different patent-related tasks.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Modeling semantic plausibility requires commonsense knowledge about the world and has been used as a testbed for exploring various knowledge representations. Previous work has focused specifically on modeling physical plausibility and shown that distributional methods fail when tested in a supervised setting. At the same time, distributional models, namely large pretrained language models, have led to improved results for many natural language understanding tasks. In this work, we show that these pretrained language models are in fact effective at modeling physical plausibility in the supervised setting. We therefore present the more difficult problem of learning to model physical plausibility directly from text. We create a training set by extracting attested events from a large corpus, and we provide a baseline for training on these attested events in a self-supervised manner and testing on a physical plausibility task. We believe results could be further improved by injecting explicit commonsense knowledge into a distributional model.

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's r^2) relative to baselines that use nearest neighbors or use information directly from the prompt, and performance equal to or exceeding satellite-based benchmarks in the literature. With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19% and 51% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

Modern machine learning research relies on relatively few carefully curated datasets. Even in these datasets, and typically in `untidy' or raw data, practitioners are faced with significant issues of data quality and diversity which can be prohibitively labor intensive to address. Existing methods for dealing with these challenges tend to make strong assumptions about the particular issues at play, and often require a priori knowledge or metadata such as domain labels. Our work is orthogonal to these methods: we instead focus on providing a unified and efficient framework for Metadata Archaeology -- uncovering and inferring metadata of examples in a dataset. We curate different subsets of data that might exist in a dataset (e.g. mislabeled, atypical, or out-of-distribution examples) using simple transformations, and leverage differences in learning dynamics between these probe suites to infer metadata of interest. Our method is on par with far more sophisticated mitigation methods across different tasks: identifying and correcting mislabeled examples, classifying minority-group samples, prioritizing points relevant for training and enabling scalable human auditing of relevant examples.

While the Earth observation community has witnessed a surge in high-impact foundation models and global Earth embedding datasets, a significant barrier remains in translating these academic assets into freely accessible tools. This tutorial introduces EarthEmbeddingExplorer, an interactive web application designed to bridge this gap, transforming static research artifacts into dynamic, practical workflows for discovery. We will provide a comprehensive hands-on guide to the system, detailing its cloud-native software architecture, demonstrating cross-modal queries (natural language, visual, and geolocation), and showcasing how to derive scientific insights from retrieval results. By democratizing access to precomputed Earth embeddings, this tutorial empowers researchers to seamlessly transition from state-of-the-art models and data archives to real-world application and analysis. The web application is available at https://modelscope.ai/studios/Major-TOM/EarthEmbeddingExplorer.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Reconstructing subsurface ocean dynamics, such as vertical velocity fields, from incomplete surface observations poses a critical challenge in Earth science, a field long hampered by the lack of standardized, analysis-ready benchmarks. To systematically address this issue and catalyze research, we first build and release KD48, a high-resolution ocean dynamics benchmark derived from petascale simulations and curated with expert-driven denoising. Building on this benchmark, we introduce VISION, a novel reconstruction paradigm based on Dynamic Prompting designed to tackle the core problem of missing data in real-world observations. The essence of VISION lies in its ability to generate a visual prompt on-the-fly from any available subset of observations, which encodes both data availability and the ocean's physical state. More importantly, we design a State-conditioned Prompting module that efficiently injects this prompt into a universal backbone, endowed with geometry- and scale-aware operators, to guide its adaptive adjustment of computational strategies. This mechanism enables VISION to precisely handle the challenges posed by varying input combinations. Extensive experiments on the KD48 benchmark demonstrate that VISION not only substantially outperforms state-of-the-art models but also exhibits strong generalization under extreme data missing scenarios. By providing a high-quality benchmark and a robust model, our work establishes a solid infrastructure for ocean science research under data uncertainty. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/VISION.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are rare but destructive hazards in high mountain regions, yet predictive research is hindered by fragmented and unimodal data. Most prior efforts emphasize post-event mapping, whereas forecasting requires harmonized datasets that combine visual indicators with physical precursors. We present GLOFNet, a multimodal dataset for GLOF monitoring and prediction, focused on the Shisper Glacier in the Karakoram. It integrates three complementary sources: Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery for spatial monitoring, NASA ITS_LIVE velocity products for glacier kinematics, and MODIS Land Surface Temperature records spanning over two decades. Preprocessing included cloud masking, quality filtering, normalization, temporal interpolation, augmentation, and cyclical encoding, followed by harmonization across modalities. Exploratory analysis reveals seasonal glacier velocity cycles, long-term warming of ~0.8 K per decade, and spatial heterogeneity in cryospheric conditions. The resulting dataset, GLOFNet, is publicly available to support future research in glacial hazard prediction. By addressing challenges such as class imbalance, cloud contamination, and coarse resolution, GLOFNet provides a structured foundation for benchmarking multimodal deep learning approaches to rare hazard prediction.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

The trade-off between expressiveness and interpretability remains a core challenge when building human-centric predictive models for classification and decision-making. While symbolic rules offer interpretability, they often lack expressiveness, whereas neural networks excel in performance but are known for being black boxes. In this paper, we show a combination of Large Language Models (LLMs) and symbolic programs can bridge this gap. In the proposed LLM-based Symbolic Programs (LSPs), the pretrained LLM with natural language prompts provides a massive set of interpretable modules that can transform raw input into natural language concepts. Symbolic programs then integrate these modules into an interpretable decision rule. To train LSPs, we develop a divide-and-conquer approach to incrementally build the program from scratch, where the learning process of each step is guided by LLMs. To evaluate the effectiveness of LSPs in extracting interpretable and accurate knowledge from data, we introduce IL-Bench, a collection of diverse tasks, including both synthetic and real-world scenarios across different modalities. Empirical results demonstrate LSP's superior performance compared to traditional neurosymbolic programs and vanilla automatic prompt tuning methods. Moreover, as the knowledge learned by LSP is a combination of natural language descriptions and symbolic rules, it is easily transferable to humans (interpretable), and other LLMs, and generalizes well to out-of-distribution samples.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

Neural networks can accurately forecast complex dynamical systems, yet how they internally represent underlying latent geometry remains poorly understood. We study neural forecasters through the lens of representational alignment, introducing anchor-based, geometry-agnostic relative embeddings that remove rotational and scaling ambiguities in latent spaces. Applying this framework across seven canonical dynamical systems - ranging from periodic to chaotic - we reveal reproducible family-level structure: multilayer perceptrons align with other MLPs, recurrent networks with RNNs, while transformers and echo-state networks achieve strong forecasts despite weaker alignment. Alignment generally correlates with forecasting accuracy, yet high accuracy can coexist with low alignment. Relative geometry thus provides a simple, reproducible foundation for comparing how model families internalize and represent dynamical structure.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

In the field of eXplainable AI (XAI), robust "blackbox" algorithms such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are known for making high prediction performance. However, the ability to explain and interpret these algorithms still require innovation in the understanding of influential and, more importantly, explainable features that directly or indirectly impact the performance of predictivity. A number of methods existing in literature focus on visualization techniques but the concepts of explainability and interpretability still require rigorous definition. In view of the above needs, this paper proposes an interaction-based methodology -- Influence Score (I-score) -- to screen out the noisy and non-informative variables in the images hence it nourishes an environment with explainable and interpretable features that are directly associated to feature predictivity. We apply the proposed method on a real world application in Pneumonia Chest X-ray Image data set and produced state-of-the-art results. We demonstrate how to apply the proposed approach for more general big data problems by improving the explainability and interpretability without sacrificing the prediction performance. The contribution of this paper opens a novel angle that moves the community closer to the future pipelines of XAI problems.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Embeddings have become a pivotal means to represent complex, multi-faceted information about entities, concepts, and relationships in a condensed and useful format. Nevertheless, they often preclude direct interpretation. While downstream tasks make use of these compressed representations, meaningful interpretation usually requires visualization using dimensionality reduction or specialized machine learning interpretability methods. This paper addresses the challenge of making such embeddings more interpretable and broadly useful, by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) to directly interact with embeddings -- transforming abstract vectors into understandable narratives. By injecting embeddings into LLMs, we enable querying and exploration of complex embedding data. We demonstrate our approach on a variety of diverse tasks, including: enhancing concept activation vectors (CAVs), communicating novel embedded entities, and decoding user preferences in recommender systems. Our work couples the immense information potential of embeddings with the interpretative power of LLMs.

Earth Observation (EO) systems are essentially designed to support domain experts who often express their requirements through vague natural language rather than precise, machine-friendly instructions. Depending on the specific application scenario, these vague queries can demand vastly different levels of visual precision. Consequently, a practical EO AI system must bridge the gap between ambiguous human queries and the appropriate multi-granularity visual analysis tasks, ranging from holistic image interpretation to fine-grained pixel-wise predictions. While Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong semantic understanding, their text-based output format is inherently ill-suited for dense, precision-critical spatial predictions. Existing agentic frameworks address this limitation by delegating tasks to external tools, but indiscriminate tool invocation is computationally inefficient and underutilizes the MLLM's native capabilities. To this end, we propose RemoteAgent, an agentic framework that strategically respects the intrinsic capability boundaries of MLLMs. To empower this framework to understand real user intents, we construct VagueEO, a human-centric instruction dataset pairing EO tasks with simulated vague natural-language queries. By leveraging VagueEO for reinforcement fine-tuning, we align an MLLM into a robust cognitive core that directly resolves image- and sparse region-level tasks. Consequently, RemoteAgent processes suitable tasks internally while intelligently orchestrating specialized tools via the Model Context Protocol exclusively for dense predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RemoteAgent achieves robust intent recognition capabilities while delivering highly competitive performance across diverse EO tasks.

As Transformers have become state-of-the-art models for natural language processing (NLP) tasks, the need to understand and explain their predictions is increasingly apparent. Especially in unsupervised applications, such as information retrieval tasks, similarity models built on top of foundation model representations have been widely applied. However, their inner prediction mechanisms have mostly remained opaque. Recent advances in explainable AI have made it possible to mitigate these limitations by leveraging improved explanations for Transformers through layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP). Using BiLRP, an extension developed for computing second-order explanations in bilinear similarity models, we investigate which feature interactions drive similarity in NLP models. We validate the resulting explanations and demonstrate their utility in three corpus-level use cases, analyzing grammatical interactions, multilingual semantics, and biomedical text retrieval. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of different semantic similarity tasks and models, highlighting how novel explainable AI methods enable in-depth analyses and corpus-level insights.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Interpretability is a pressing issue for decision systems. Many post hoc methods have been proposed to explain the predictions of a single machine learning model. However, business processes and decision systems are rarely centered around a unique model. These systems combine multiple models that produce key predictions, and then apply decision rules to generate the final decision. To explain such decisions, we propose the Semi-Model-Agnostic Contextual Explainer (SMACE), a new interpretability method that combines a geometric approach for decision rules with existing interpretability methods for machine learning models to generate an intuitive feature ranking tailored to the end user. We show that established model-agnostic approaches produce poor results on tabular data in this setting, in particular giving the same importance to several features, whereas SMACE can rank them in a meaningful way.

Predicting future dynamics is crucial for applications like autonomous driving and robotics, where understanding the environment is key. Existing pixel-level methods are computationally expensive and often focus on irrelevant details. To address these challenges, we introduce DINO-Foresight, a novel framework that operates in the semantic feature space of pretrained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Our approach trains a masked feature transformer in a self-supervised manner to predict the evolution of VFM features over time. By forecasting these features, we can apply off-the-shelf, task-specific heads for various scene understanding tasks. In this framework, VFM features are treated as a latent space, to which different heads attach to perform specific tasks for future-frame analysis. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its robustness and scalability. Additionally, we highlight how intermediate transformer representations in DINO-Foresight improve downstream task performance, offering a promising path for the self-supervised enhancement of VFM features. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/DINO-Foresight .

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

Concept-based interpretability methods aim to explain deep neural network model predictions using a predefined set of semantic concepts. These methods evaluate a trained model on a new, "probe" dataset and correlate model predictions with the visual concepts labeled in that dataset. Despite their popularity, they suffer from limitations that are not well-understood and articulated by the literature. In this work, we analyze three commonly overlooked factors in concept-based explanations. First, the choice of the probe dataset has a profound impact on the generated explanations. Our analysis reveals that different probe datasets may lead to very different explanations, and suggests that the explanations are not generalizable outside the probe dataset. Second, we find that concepts in the probe dataset are often less salient and harder to learn than the classes they claim to explain, calling into question the correctness of the explanations. We argue that only visually salient concepts should be used in concept-based explanations. Finally, while existing methods use hundreds or even thousands of concepts, our human studies reveal a much stricter upper bound of 32 concepts or less, beyond which the explanations are much less practically useful. We make suggestions for future development and analysis of concept-based interpretability methods. Code for our analysis and user interface can be found at https://github.com/princetonvisualai/OverlookedFactors

Surface wave dispersion curve inversion plays a critical role in both shallow resource exploration and deep geological studies, yet it remains hindered by sensitivity to initial models and low computational efficiency. Recently, data-driven deep learning methods, inspired by advances in computer vision, have shown promising potential to address these challenges. However, the lack of large-scale, diverse benchmark datasets remains a major obstacle to their development and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we present OpenSWI, a comprehensive benchmark dataset generated through the Surface Wave Inversion Dataset Preparation (SWIDP) pipeline. OpenSWI includes two synthetic datasets tailored to different research scales and scenarios, OpenSWI-shallow and OpenSWI-deep, and an AI-ready real-world dataset for generalization evaluation, OpenSWI-real. OpenSWI-shallow, derived from the 2-D OpenFWI geological model dataset, contains over 22 million 1-D velocity profiles paired with fundamental-mode phase and group velocity dispersion curves, spanning a wide range of shallow geological structures (e.g., flat layers, faults, folds, realistic stratigraphy). OpenSWI-deep, built from 14 global and regional 3-D geological models, comprises 1.26 million high-fidelity 1-D velocity-dispersion pairs for deep-Earth studies. OpenSWI-real, compiled from open-source projects, contains two sets of observed dispersion curves with corresponding reference models, serving as a benchmark for evaluating model generalization. To demonstrate utility, we trained models on OpenSWI-shallow and -deep and evaluated them on OpenSWI-real, demonstrating strong agreement between predictions and references, which confirms the diversity and representativeness of the dataset. To advance intelligent surface wave inversion, we release the SWIDP toolbox, OpenSWI datasets, and trained models for the research community.

Understanding natural language requires common sense, one aspect of which is the ability to discern the plausibility of events. While distributional models -- most recently pre-trained, Transformer language models -- have demonstrated improvements in modeling event plausibility, their performance still falls short of humans'. In this work, we show that Transformer-based plausibility models are markedly inconsistent across the conceptual classes of a lexical hierarchy, inferring that "a person breathing" is plausible while "a dentist breathing" is not, for example. We find this inconsistency persists even when models are softly injected with lexical knowledge, and we present a simple post-hoc method of forcing model consistency that improves correlation with human plausibility judgements.