new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

Daily Papers

byAK and the research community

Jan 5

Peakbagging the K2 KEYSTONE sample with PBjam: characterising the individual mode frequencies in solar-like oscillators

The pattern of individual mode frequencies in solar-like oscillators provides valuable insight into their properties and interior structures. The identification and characterisation of these modes requires high signal-to-noise and frequency resolution. The KEYSTONE project unlocks the asteroseismic potential of the K2 mission by providing individually reduced, high-quality time series data, global asteroseismic parameters, and spectroscopic analysis for 173 solar-like oscillators. In this work, we build on the KEYSTONE project and present the first analysis of the pattern of individual modes in the oscillation spectra for the K2 KEYSTONE stars. We perform a robust identification and characterisation of the modes through peakbagging methods in the open-source analysis tool PBjam. We present over 6000 mode frequencies, widths, and heights for 168 stars in the sample, covering the HR diagram from FGK dwarfs to sub-giants and the lower red giant branch, providing a significant increase in the number of individual mode frequency detections for main sequence and sub-giant oscillators. This study also presents sample-wide trends of oscillation patterns as a function of the fundamental stellar properties, and improves the precision of the global asteroseismic parameters. These measurements are part of the legacy of the K2 mission, and can be used to perform detailed modelling to improve the precision of fundamental properties of these stars. The results of this analysis provides evidence for the validity of using PBjam to identify and characterise the modes resulting from the observations of the future PLATO mission.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 24, 2025

KIC 4150611: A quadruply eclipsing heptuple star system with a g-mode period-spacing pattern Asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern

In this work, we aim to estimate the stellar parameters of the primary (Aa) by performing asteroseismic analysis on its period-spacing pattern. We use the C-3PO neural network to perform asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern of Aa, discussing the interplay of this information with external constraints from spectroscopy (T_{rm eff} and log(g)) and eclipse modelling (R). To estimate the level of uncertainty due to different frequency extraction and pattern identification processes, we consider four different variations on the period-spacing patterns. To better understand the correlations between and the uncertainty structure of our parameter estimates, we also employed a classical, parameter-based MCMC grid search on four different stellar grids. The best-fitting, externally constrained model to the period-spacing pattern arrives at estimates of the stellar properties for Aa of: M=1.51 pm 0.05 M_odot, X_c =0.43 pm 0.04, R=1.66 pm 0.1 R_odot, f_{rm ov}=0.010, Omega_c=1.58 pm 0.01 d^{-1} with rigid rotation to within the measurement errors, log(T_{rm eff})=3.856 pm 0.008 dex, log(g)=4.18 pm 0.04 dex, and log(L)=0.809 pm 0.005 dex, which agree well with previous measurements from eclipse modelling, spectroscopy, and the Gaia DR3 luminosity. We find that the near-core properties of the best-fitting asteroseismic models are consistent with external constraints from eclipse modelling and spectroscopy. Aa appears to be a typical example of a gamma Dor star, fitting well within existing populations. We find that Aa is quasi-rigidly rotating to within the uncertainties, and note that the asteroseismic age estimate for Aa (1100 pm 100 Myr) is considerably older than the young (35 Myr) age implied by previous isochrone fits to the B binary in the literature. Our MCMC parameter-based grid-search agrees well with our pattern-modelling approach.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 27, 2024

Parameter estimation from the core-bounce phase of rotating core collapse supernovae in real interferometer noise

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 3, 2023

European Pulsar Timing Array Limits On An Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95% upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude A of the background of A<3.0times 10^{-15} at a reference frequency of 1yr^{-1} and a spectral index of 13/3, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to Omega_gw(f)h^2 < 1.1times10^{-9} at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of sim 5times10^{-9}~Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95% upper limits on the string tension, Gmu/c^2, characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit Gmu/c^2<1.3times10^{-7}, identical to that set by the {\it Planck} Collaboration, when combining {\it Planck} and high-ell Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of Omega^relic_gw(f)h^2<1.2 times10^{-9}, a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array.

  • 36 authors
·
Apr 14, 2015

Phemenological Modeling of Eclipsing Binary Stars

We review the method NAV (New Algol Variable) first introduced in 2012Ap.....55..536A, which uses the locally-dependent shapes of eclipses in an addition to the trigonometric polynomial of the second order (which typically describes the "out-of-eclipse" part of the light curve with effects of reflection, ellipticity and O'Connell). Eclipsing binary stars are believed to show distinct eclipses only if belonging to the EA type. With a decreasing eclipse width, the statistically optimal value of the trigonometric polynomial s (2003ASPC..292..391A) drastically increases from ~2 for elliptic (EL) variables without eclipses, ~6-8 for EW and up to ~30-50 for some EA with narrow eclipses. In this case of large number of parameters, the smoothing curve becomes very noisy and apparent waves (the Gibbs phenomenon) may be seen. The NAV set of the parameters may be used for classification in the GCVS, VSX and similar catalogs. The maximal number of parameters is m=12, which corresponds to s=5, if correcting both the period and the initial epoch. We have applied the method to few stars, also in a case of multi-color photometry (2015JASS...32..127A), when it is possible to use the phenomenological parameters from the NAV fit to estimate physical parameters using statistical dependencies. We conclude that the NAV approximation is better than the TP one even for the case of EW-type stars with much wider eclipses. It may also be used to determine timings (see 2005ASPC..335...37A for a review of methods) or to determine parameters in the case of variable period, using a complete light curve modeling the phase variations. The method is illustrated on 2MASS J11080447-6143290 (EA-type), USNO-B1.0 1265-0306001 and USNO-B1.0 1266-0313413 (EW-type) and compared to various other methods from the literature.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 12, 2016

Phemenological Modelling of a Group of Eclipsing Binary Stars

Phenomenological modeling of variable stars allows determination of a set of the parameters, which are needed for classification in the "General Catalogue of Variable Stars" and similar catalogs. We apply a recent method NAV ("New Algol Variable") to eclipsing binary stars of different types. Although all periodic functions may be represented as Fourier series with an infinite number of coefficients, this is impossible for a finite number of the observations. Thus one may use a restricted Fourier series, i.e. a trigonometric polynomial (TP) of order s either for fitting the light curve, or to make a periodogram analysis. However, the number of parameters needed drastically increases with decreasing width of minimum. In the NAV algorithm, the special shape of minimum is used, so the number of parameters is limited to 10 (if the period and initial epoch are fixed) or 12 (not fixed). We illustrate the NAV method by application to a recently discovered Algol-type eclipsing variable 2MASS J11080308-6145589 (in the field of previously known variable star RS Car) and compare results to that obtained using the TP fits. For this system, the statistically optimal number of parameters is 44, but the fit is still worse than that of the NAV fit. Application to the system GSC 3692-00624 argues that the NAV fit is better than the TP one even for the case of EW-type stars with much wider eclipses. Model parameters are listed.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 17, 2015

Multi-mode Pulsations in AGB Stars: Insights from 3D RHD CO5BOLD Simulations

Stars on the AGB can exhibit acoustic pulsation modes of different radial orders, along with non-radial modes. These pulsations are essential to the mass-loss process and influence the evolutionary pathways of AGB stars. P-L relations serve as a valuable diagnostic for understanding stellar evolution along the AGB. 3D RHD simulations provide a powerful tool for investigating pulsation phenomena driven by convective processes and their non-linear coupling with stellar oscillations. We investigate multi-mode pulsations in AGB stars using advanced 3D 'star-in-a-box' simulations with the CO5BOLD code. Signatures of these multi-mode pulsations were weak in our previous 3D models. Our focus is on identifying and characterising the various pulsation modes, examining their persistence and transitions, and comparing the results with 1D model predictions and observational data where applicable. We produced a new model grid comprising AGB stars with current masses of 0.7, 0.8, and 1,M_{odot}. Fourier analysis was applied to dynamic, time-dependent quantities to extract dominant pulsation modes and their corresponding periods. Additionally, wavelet transforms were employed to identify mode-switching behaviour over time. The models successfully reproduce the P-L sequences found in AGB stars. Mode-switching phenomena are found in both the models and wavelet analyses of observational data, allowing us to infer similarities in the underlying pulsation dynamics. These 3D simulations highlight the natural emergence of multi-mode pulsations, including both radial and non-radial modes, driven by the self-consistent interplay of convection and oscillations. Our findings underscore the value of 3D RHD models in capturing the non-linear behaviour of AGB pulsations, providing insights into mode switching, envelope structures, and potential links to episodic mass-loss events.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 17, 2025

Revision of the Phenomenological Characteristics of the Algol-Type Stars Using the NAV Algorithm

Phenomenological characteristics of the sample of the Algol-type stars are revised using a recently developed NAV ("New Algol Variable") algorithm (2012Ap.....55..536A, 2012arXiv 1212.6707A) and compared to that obtained using common methods of Trigonometric Polynomial Fit (TP) or local Algebraic Polynomial (A) fit of a fixed or (alternately) statistically optimal degree (1994OAP.....7...49A, 2003ASPC..292..391A). The computer program NAV is introduced, which allows to determine the best fit with 7 "linear" and 5 "non-linear" parameters and their error estimates. The number of parameters is much smaller than for the TP fit (typically 20-40, depending on the width of the eclipse, and is much smaller (5-20) for the W UMa and beta Lyrae - type stars. This causes more smooth approximation taking into account the reflection and ellipsoidal effects (TP2) and generally different shapes of the primary and secondary eclipses. An application of the method to two-color CCD photometry to the recently discovered eclipsing variable 2MASS J18024395 + 4003309 = VSX J180243.9 +400331 (2015JASS...32..101A) allowed to make estimates of the physical parameters of the binary system based on the phenomenological parameters of the light curve. The phenomenological parameters of the light curves were determined for the sample of newly discovered EA and EW - type stars (VSX J223429.3+552903, VSX J223421.4+553013, VSX J223416.2+553424, US-NO-B1.0 1347-0483658, UCAC3-191-085589, VSX J180755.6+074711= UCAC3 196-166827). Despite we have used original observations published by the discoverers, the accuracy estimates of the period using the NAV method are typically better than the original ones.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 30, 2015

A Machine Learning Framework for Stellar Collision Transient Identification

Modern astronomical surveys, such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), are capable of detecting thousands of transient events per year, necessitating the use of automated and scalable data analysis techniques. Recent advances in machine learning have enabled the efficient classification and characterization of these transient phenomena. We aim to develop a fully systematic pipeline to identify candidate stellar collision events in galactic nuclei, which may otherwise be identified as tidal disruption events or other transients. We also seek to validate our simulations by comparing key physical parameters derived from observations and used in modeling these events. We generate a comprehensive bank of simulated light curves spanning a range of physical parameters and employ an approximate nearest neighbor algorithm (via the annoy library) to match these with observed ZTF light curves. Our pipeline is successfully able to associate observed ZTF light curves with simulated events. The resulting estimated parameters, including supermassive black hole masses and ejecta mass, are presented and compared to known values when applicable. We demonstrate that a systematic, machine learning-based approach can effectively identify and characterize stellar collision candidate events from large-scale transient surveys. This methodology is especially promising for future surveys which will provide us with significantly high volumes of data, such as LSST, where automated, data-intensive analysis will be critical for advancing our understanding of transient astrophysical phenomena.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 15, 2025

Estimation of Classical Cepheid's Physical Parameters from NIR Light Curves

Recent space-borne and ground-based observations provide photometric measurements as time series. The effect of interstellar dust extinction in the near-infrared range is only 10% of that measured in the V band. However, the sensitivity of the light curve shape to the physical parameters in the near-infrared is much lower. So, interpreting these types of data sets requires new approaches like the different large-scale surveys, which create similar problems with big data. Using a selected data set, we provide a method for applying routines implemented in R to extract most information of measurements to determine physical parameters, which can also be used in automatic classification schemes and pipeline processing. We made a multivariate classification of 131 Cepheid light curves (LC) in J, H, and K colors, where all the LCs were represented in 20D parameter space in these colors separately. Performing a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we got an orthogonal coordinate system and squared Euclidean distances between LCs, with 6 significant eigenvalues, reducing the 20-dimension to 6. We also estimated the optimal number of partitions of similar objects and found it to be equal to 7 in each color; their dependence on the period, absolute magnitude, amplitude, and metallicity are also discussed. We computed the Spearman rank correlations, showing that periods and absolute magnitudes correlate with the first three PCs significantly. The first two PC are also found to have a relationship with the amplitude, but the metallicity effects are only marginal. The method shown can be generalized and implemented in unsupervised classification schemes and analysis of mixed and biased samples. The analysis of our Classical Cepheid near-infrared LC sample showed that the J, H, K curves are insufficient for determination of stellar metallicity, with mass being the key factor shaping them.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 9, 2024

Machine learning-driven Anomaly Detection and Forecasting for Euclid Space Telescope Operations

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 8, 2024

Analytical sensitivity curves of the second-generation time-delay interferometry

Forthcoming space-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors will employ second-generation time-delay interferometry (TDI) to suppress laser frequency noise and achieve the sensitivity required for GW detection. We introduce an inverse light-path operator P_{i_{1}i_{2}i_{3}ldots i_{n-1}i_{n}}, which enables simple representation of second-generation TDI combinations and a concise description of light propagation. Analytical expressions and high-accuracy approximate formulas are derived for the sky- and polarization-averaged response functions, noise power spectral densities (PSDs), and sensitivity curves of TDI Michelson, (alpha,beta,gamma), Monitor, Beacon, Relay, and Sagnac combinations, as well as their orthogonal A, E, T channels. Our results show that: (i) second-generation TDIs have the same sensitivities as their first-generation counterparts; (ii) the A, E, T sensitivities and the optimal sensitivity are independent of the TDI generation and specific combination; (iii) the A and E channels have equal averaged responses, noise PSDs, and sensitivities, while the T channel has much weaker response and sensitivity at low frequencies (2pi fL/clesssim3); (iv) except for the (alpha,beta,gamma) and zeta combinations and the T channel, all sensitivity curves exhibit a flat section in the range f_{n}<flesssim 1.5/(2pi L/c), where the noise-balance frequency f_{n} separates the proof-mass- and optical-path-dominated regimes, while the response-transition frequency sim 1.5/(2pi L/c) separates the response function's low- and high-frequency behaviors; (v) the averaged response, noise PSD, and sensitivity of zeta scales with those of the T channel. These analytical and approximate formulations provide useful benchmarks for instrument optimization and data-analysis studies for future space-based GW detectors.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 3, 2025

Gaia Data Release 3: Summary of the content and survey properties

We present the third data release of the European Space Agency's Gaia mission, GDR3. The GDR3 catalogue is the outcome of the processing of raw data collected with the Gaia instruments during the first 34 months of the mission by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium. The GDR3 catalogue contains the same source list, celestial positions, proper motions, parallaxes, and broad band photometry in the G, G_{BP}, and G_{RP} pass-bands already present in the Early Third Data Release. GDR3 introduces an impressive wealth of new data products. More than 33 million objects in the ranges G_{rvs} < 14 and 3100 <T_{eff} <14500 , have new determinations of their mean radial velocities based on data collected by Gaia. We provide G_{rvs} magnitudes for most sources with radial velocities, and a line broadening parameter is listed for a subset of these. Mean Gaia spectra are made available to the community. The GDR3 catalogue includes about 1 million mean spectra from the radial velocity spectrometer, and about 220 million low-resolution blue and red prism photometer BPRP mean spectra. The results of the analysis of epoch photometry are provided for some 10 million sources across 24 variability types. GDR3 includes astrophysical parameters and source class probabilities for about 470 million and 1500 million sources, respectively, including stars, galaxies, and quasars. Orbital elements and trend parameters are provided for some 800,000 astrometric, spectroscopic and eclipsing binaries. More than 150,000 Solar System objects, including new discoveries, with preliminary orbital solutions and individual epoch observations are part of this release. Reflectance spectra derived from the epoch BPRP spectral data are published for about 60\,000 asteroids. Finally, an additional data set is provided, namely the Gaia Andromeda Photometric Survey (abridged)

  • 456 authors
·
Jul 30, 2022

Pattern and Origin for the Extreme γ-ray Flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279: An Astrophysical Critical Damper?

We apply a Gaussian process method to the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 to discover the variable patterns and then to investigate the physical origins of the giant flares. The kernels of stochastically driven damped simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), the damped random-walk (DRW), and Matrm ern-3/2 are respectively used to describe the adaptive-binning gamma-ray light curves of the two flares. Our findings show that both the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 clearly prefer the SHO kernel in the over-damped mode and the Matrm ern-3/2 kernel over the DRW kernel. The resulted SHO and Matrm ern-3/2 power spectral densities (PSDs) are the same for each object, with the index changing from -4 at high frequencies to 0 at low frequencies. The patterns of the two flares are both approaching the critical damping mode with the quality factor Q approx 0.4 (i.e., the damping ratio eta approx 1.25), but with slightly different damping timescales. The characteristic timescale (corresponding to the broken frequency in the PSD) for 3C 454.3 is 2-3 days and 3-5 days for 3C 279. The variable patterns found here suggest that once the system responds to the energy injection disturbance, the release of the energy in the system is finished abruptly. The obtained timescale provides a constraint on the size of energy dissipation region for each source.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 28, 2025

Astrometric Effects of a Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

A stochastic gravitational wave background causes the apparent positions of distant sources to fluctuate, with angular deflections of order the characteristic strain amplitude of the gravitational waves. These fluctuations may be detectable with high precision astrometry, as first suggested by Braginsky et al. in 1990. Several researchers have made order of magnitude estimates of the upper limits obtainable on the gravitational wave spectrum \Omega_gw(f), at frequencies of order f ~ 1 yr^-1, both for the future space-based optical interferometry missions GAIA and SIM, and for VLBI interferometry in radio wavelengths with the SKA. For GAIA, tracking N ~ 10^6 quasars over a time of T ~ 1 yr with an angular accuracy of \Delta \theta ~ 10 \mu as would yield a sensitivity level of \Omega_gw ~ (\Delta \theta)^2/(N T^2 H_0^2) ~ 10^-6, which would be comparable with pulsar timing. In this paper we take a first step toward firming up these estimates by computing in detail the statistical properties of the angular deflections caused by a stochastic background. We compute analytically the two point correlation function of the deflections on the sphere, and the spectrum as a function of frequency and angular scale. The fluctuations are concentrated at low frequencies (for a scale invariant stochastic background), and at large angular scales, starting with the quadrupole. The magnetic-type and electric-type pieces of the fluctuations have equal amounts of power.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 21, 2010

Model-agnostic search for the quasinormal modes of gravitational wave echoes

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

Accelerated Bayesian Inference for Pulsar Timing Arrays: Normalizing Flows for Rapid Model Comparison Across Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background Sources

The recent detection of nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds (SGWBs) by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) promises unique insights into astrophysical and cosmological origins. However, traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches become prohibitively expensive for large datasets. We employ a normalizing flow (NF)-based machine learning framework to accelerate Bayesian inference in PTA analyses. For the first time, we perform Bayesian model comparison across SGWB source models in the framework of machine learning by training NF architectures on the PTA dataset (NANOGrav 15-year) and enabling direct evidence estimation via learned harmonic mean estimators. Our examples include 10 conventional SGWB source models such as supermassive black hole binaries, power-law spectrum, cosmic strings, domain walls, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, and dual scenario/inflationary gravitational wave. Our approach jointly infers 20 red noise parameters and 2 SGWB parameters per model in sim 20\,hours (including training), compared to sim 10\,days with MCMC. Critically, the NF method preserves rigorous model selection accuracy, with small Hellinger distances (lesssim 0.3) relative to MCMC posteriors, and reproduces MCMC-based Bayes factors across all tested scenarios. This scalable technique for SGWB source comparison will be essential for future PTA expansions and next-generation arrays such as the SKA, offering orders-of-magnitude efficiency gains without sacrificing physical interpretability.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 5, 2025

Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models

Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 18, 2025

Solar System Experiments in the Search for Dark Energy and Dark Matter

We reassess the realistic discovery reach of Solar-System experiments for dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM), making explicit the bridge from cosmology-level linear responses to local, screened residuals. In scalar-tensor frameworks with a universal conformal coupling A(phi) and chameleon/Vainshtein screening, we map cosmological responses {mu(z,k),Sigma(z,k)} inferred by DESI and Euclid to thin-shell or Vainshtein residuals in deep Solar potentials Phi_N. We emphasize a two-branch strategy. In a detection-first branch, a verified local anomaly -- an Einstein equivalence principle (EEP) violation, a Shapiro-delay signal with |gamma-1|simfewtimes 10^{-6}, an AU-scale Yukawa tail, or a ultralight DM (ULDM) line in clocks/atom interferometers in space (AIS) -- triggers a joint refit of cosmology and Solar-System data under a common microphysical parameterization {V(phi),A(phi)}. In a guardrail branch, Solar-System tests enforce constraints (EEP; PPN parameters gamma,beta; and dot G/G) and close unscreened or weakly screened corners indicated by cosmology. We forecast, per conjunction, |gamma-1|lesssim (2-5)times 10^{-6} (Ka-/X-band or optical Shapiro), eta_{EEP}sim (1--10)times 10^{-17} (drag-free AIS), |dot G/G|sim(3-5)times10^{-15},yr^{-1} (sub-mm-class LLR), a uniform ~2x tightening of AU-scale Yukawa/DM-density bounds, and (3-10)times improved ULDM-coupling reach from clocks. For a conformal benchmark, mu_{ lin,0}=0.10 implies chisimeq mu_{lin,0/2} and a Sun thin shell Delta R/Rlesssim (1/3chi)|gamma-1|/2=2.4times 10^{-3} at |gamma-1|=5times 10^{-6}; Vainshtein screening at 1 AU yields |gamma-1|lesssim 10^{-11}, naturally below near-term reach. We recommend a cost-effective guardrail+discovery portfolio with explicit triggers for escalation to dedicated missions.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 6, 2025

The implications of stochastic gas torques for asymmetric binaries in the LISA band

Gravitational waves from asymmetric mass-ratio black-hole binaries carry unique information about their astrophysical environment. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) could potentially measure the amplitude and slope of gas torques in binaries embedded in the accretion disks of Active Galactic Nuclei, helping differentiate competing accretion disk models. However, this relies on simplified analytic models, which do not account for the stochastic variability of torques seen in hydrodynamic simulations. In this work, we use hydrodynamic simulations to create gravitational waveforms for extreme and intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in the LISA band. We then analyze these simulated waveforms using simpler templates that assume analytic torques, without stochastic time variability. By performing realistic Bayesian parameter estimation, we find no bias at 90% confidence in the binary parameters; however, estimates of accretion disk parameters, such as torque amplitude and slope, may be biased. Typically, the posterior distribution is centered around the average value of the torques, but when stochastic variability is large, the posterior can indicate no torques, even though they are present in the simulation. Our results suggest that while simplified analytic torque models work well for estimating binary parameters, caution is needed when using them to infer properties of the accretion disk. This work moves towards a more realistic assessment of one of the LISA science objectives, i.e., probing the properties of the astrophysical environments of black holes.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 14, 2025

AstroMLab 1: Who Wins Astronomy Jeopardy!?

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 15, 2024

Cosmological Distance Measurement of 12 Nearby Supernovae IIP with ROTSE-IIIB

We present cosmological analysis of 12 nearby (z<0.06) Type IIP supernovae (SNe IIP) observed with the ROTSE-IIIb telescope. To achieve precise photometry, we present a new image differencing technique that is implemented for the first time on the ROTSE SN photometry pipeline. With this method, we find up to a 20\% increase in the detection efficiency and significant reduction in residual RMS scatter of the SN lightcurves when compared to the previous pipeline performance. We use the published optical spectra and broadband photometry of well studied SNe IIP to establish temporal models for ejecta velocity and photospheric temperature evolution for our SNe IIP population. This study yields measurements that are competitive to other methods even when the data are limited to a single epoch during the photospheric phase of SNe IIP. Using the fully reduced ROTSE photometry and optical spectra, we apply these models to the respective photometric epochs for each SN in the ROTSE IIP sample. This facilitates the use of the Expanding Photosphere Method (EPM) to obtain distance estimates to their respective host galaxies. We then perform cosmological parameter fitting using these EPM distances from which we measure the Hubble constant to be 72.9^{+5.7}_{-4.3}~{rm kms^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}, which is consistent with the standard Lambda CDM model values derived using other independent techniques.

  • 17 authors
·
Aug 1, 2023

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

Detecting eclipsing double white dwarfs with electromagnetic and gravitational waves

Galactic double white dwarfs are predominant sources of gravitational waves in the millihertz frequencies accessible to space-borne gravitational wave detectors. With advances in multi-messenger astronomy, an increasing number of double white dwarf systems will be discovered through both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observations. In this paper, we simulated two populations of double white dwarfs originating from different star formation histories (hereafter referred to as Model 1 and Model 2) using the binary population synthesis method. We predicted the number of double white dwarfs in our Galaxy detectable by TianQin and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) individually, as well as through their joint observation. In addition, we performed an analysis to evaluate the accuracy of the parameter estimation using the Fisher information matrix. Furthermore, we predicted the number of detached eclipsing double white dwarfs detectable by Gaia and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO). Our study found that over the nominal mission durations, TianQin, LISA, and their joint observation can detect at least five thousand and potentially several tens of thousands of double white dwarfs with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 7. Gaia and VRO are expected to detect at least several dozen and up to several hundred eclipsing double white dwarfs with orbital periods less than 30 hours. We also found that several dozen eclipsing double white dwarfs can be detected jointly through electromagnetic and gravitational wave observations.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 24, 2024

A helical magnetic field in quasar NRAO150 revealed by Faraday rotation

Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) are some of the most luminous and extreme environments in the Universe. The central engines of AGN, believed to be super-massive black-holes, are fed by accretion discs threaded by magnetic fields within a dense magneto-ionic medium. We report our findings from polarimetric Very-long-baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of quasar NRAO150 taken in October 2022 using a combined network of the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) and Effelsberg 100-m Radio Telescope. These observations are the first co-temporal multi-frequency polarimetric VLBI observations of NRAO150 at frequencies above 15GHz. We use the new VLBI polarization calibration procedure, GPCAL, with polarization observations of frequencies of 12GHz, 15GHz, 24GHz, and 43GHz of NRAO150. From these observations, we measure Faraday rotation. Using our measurement of Faraday rotation, we also derive the intrinsic electric vector position angle (EVPA0) for the source. As a complementary measurement we determine the behavior of polarization as a function of observed frequency. The polarization from NRAO150 only comes from the core region, with a peak polarization intensity occurring at 24GHz. Across the core region of NRAO150 we see clear gradients in Faraday rotation and EVPA0 values that are aligned with the direction of the jet curving around the core region. We find that for the majority of the polarized region the polarization fraction is greater at higher frequencies, with intrinsic polarization fractions in the core 3%. The Faraday rotation gradients and circular patterns in EVPA0 are strong evidence for a helical/toroidal magnetic field, and the presence of low intrinsic polarization fractions indicate that the polarized emission and hence the helical/toroidal magnetic field, occur within the innermost jet.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 5, 2025

Beyond monoculture: Polydisperse moment methods for sub-stellar atmosphere cloud microphysics II. A three-moment gamma distribution formulation for GCM applications

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17, 2025

Characterizing WASP-43b's interior structure: unveiling tidal decay and apsidal motion

Context. Recent developments in exoplanetary research highlight the importance of Love numbers in understanding their internal dynamics, formation, migration history and their potential habitability. Love numbers represent crucial parameters that gauge how exoplanets respond to external forces such as tidal interactions and rotational effects. By measuring these responses, we can gain insights into the internal structure, composition, and density distribution of exoplanets. The rate of apsidal precession of a planetary orbit is directly linked to the second-order fluid Love number, thus we can gain valuable insights into the mass distribution of the planet. Aims. In this context, we aim to re-determine the orbital parameters of WASP-43b-in particular, orbital period, eccentricity, and argument of the periastron-and its orbital evolution. We study the outcomes of the tidal interaction with the host star:whether tidal decay and periastron precession are occurring in the system. Method. We observed the system with HARPS, whose data we present for the first time, and we also analyse the newly acquired JWST full-phase light curve. We fit jointly archival and new radial velocity and transit and occultation mid-times, including tidal decay, periastron precession and long-term acceleration in the system. Results. We detected a tidal decay rate of \dotP_a=(-1.99pm0.50) and a periastron precession rate of \dotomega=(0.1851+0.0070-0.0077)=(0.1727+0.0083-0.0089)deg/d=(621.72+29.88-32.04)arcsec/d. This is the first time that both periastron precession and tidal decay are simultaneously detected in an exoplanetary system. The observed tidal interactions can neither be explained by the tidal contribution to apsidal motion of a non-aligned stellar or planetary rotation axis nor by assuming non-synchronous rotation for the planet, and a value for the planetary Love number cannot be derived. [...]

  • 11 authors
·
Jan 7, 2025

Deep Synoptic Array Science: Searching for Long Duration Radio Transients with the DSA-110

We describe the design and commissioning tests for the DSA-110 Not-So-Fast Radio Burst (NSFRB) search pipeline, a 1.4 GHz image-plane single-pulse search sensitive to 134 ms-160.8 s radio bursts. Extending the pulse width range of the Fast Radio Burst (FRB) search by 3 orders of magnitude, the NSFRB search is sensitive to the recently-discovered Galactic Long Period Radio Transients (LPRTs). The NSFRB search operates in real-time, utilizing a custom GPU-accelerated search code, cerberus, implemented in Python with JAX. We summarize successful commissioning sensitivity tests with continuum sources and pulsar B0329+54, estimating the 6sigma flux (fluence) threshold to be ~290 mJy (~40 Jy ms). Future tests of recovery of longer timescale transients, e.g. CHIME J1634+44, are planned to supplement injection testing and B0329+54 observations. An offline DSA-110 NSFRB Galactic Plane Survey was conducted to search for LPRTs, covering -3.5^circ<b<5.7^circ and 141^circ<l<225^circ (~770 square degrees) in Galactic coordinates. We estimate an upper limit Poissonian burst rate ~1 hr^{-1} per square degree (~7 hr^{-1} per 3^circtimes3^circ survey grid cell) maximized across the inner |b|<0.25^circ of the surveyed region. By imposing the ~290 mJy flux limit on two representative models (the magnetar plastic flow model and the White Dwarf-M Dwarf binary model), we reject with 95% confidence the presence of White Dwarf-M Dwarf binary LPRTs with periods between ~10-70s within ~95% of the surveyed region. Combined with the prevalence of LPRTs in the Galactic Plane, our results motivate further consideration of both White Dwarf-M Dwarf binary models and isolated magnetar models. We will continue to explore novel LPRT search strategies during real-time operations, such as triggered periodicity searches and additional targeted surveys.

  • 13 authors
·
Oct 20, 2025

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. We set upper limits for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries under power law, broken power law, and free spectral coefficient GW spectrum models. We place a 95\% upper limit on the strain amplitude (at a frequency of yr^{-1}) in the power law model of A_{rm gw} < 1.5times 10^{-15}. For a broken power law model, we place priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana (2013) and McWilliams et al. (2014). We find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 22 and 2.2 to one for the McWilliams and Sesana prior models, respectively. The McWilliams model is essentially ruled out by the data, and the Sesana model is in tension with the data under the assumption of a pure power law. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. We then place the most stringent limits so far on the energy density of relic GWs, Omega_gw(f),h^2 < 4.2 times 10^{-10}, yielding a limit on the Hubble parameter during inflation of H_*=1.6times10^{-2}~m_{Pl}, where m_{Pl} is the Planck mass. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Omega_gw(f), h^2 < 2.2 times 10^{-10}, translates to a conservative limit of Gmu<3.3times 10^{-8} - a factor of 4 better than the joint Planck and high-l CMB data from other experiments.

  • 48 authors
·
Aug 12, 2015

A universal break in energy functions of three hyperactive repeating fast radio bursts

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are millisecond-duration pulses occurring at cosmological distances with a mysterious origin. Observations show that at least some FRBs are produced by magnetars. All magnetar-powered FRB models require some triggering mechanisms, among which the most popular is the crust cracking of a neutron star, which is called starquake. However, so far there has been no decisive evidence for this speculation. Here we report the energy functions of the three most active repeating FRBs, which show a universal break around 10^{38} erg. Such a break is similar to that of the frequency-magnitude relationship of earthquakes. The break and change of the power-law indices below and above it can be well understood within the framework of FRBs triggered by starquakes in the magnetar models. The seed of weak FRBs can grow both on the magnetar surface and in the deeper crust. In contrast, the triggering of strong FRBs is confined by the crustal thickness and the seed of strong FRBs can only grow on the surface. This difference in dimensionality causes a break in the scaling properties from weak to strong FRBs, occurring at a point where the penetration depth of starquakes equals the crustal thickness. Our result, together with the earthquake-like temporal properties of these FRBs, strongly supports that FRBs are triggered by starquakes, providing a new opportunity to study the physical properties of the neutron star crust.

  • 19 authors
·
Jan 15, 2025

The Binary Fraction of Red Supergiants in the Magellanic Clouds

Red supergiants (RSGs), as the descendants of OB-type stars and the progenitors of supernovae, provide crucial insights into the evolution of massive stars, particularly in binary systems. Previous studies show that the binary fraction of RSGs (approx 15% - 40%) is significantly lower than that of their predecessors (approx 50% - 70%). In this work, we investigate the binary fraction of RSGs with the recently selected largest samples of 4695 and 2097 RSGs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), respectively. The binary system with a hot companion (O-, B- and A-type star) is identified by detecting the ultraviolet (UV) excess in the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) ranging from ultraviolet to mid-infrared after subtracting the model SED of RSG since RSGs are very weak in the UV band. It is found that the lower limit of binarity is 30.2% pm 0.7% and 32.2% pm 1% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. If the sample is limited to luminous RSGs with log L/L_{odot} > 4.0, the binary fraction becomes 26.6% pm 1.1% and 26.4% pm 1.7% in the LMC and SMC, respectively. The derived binary fraction is valid in the range of sim 2.3 < log P / [d] < sim 8. Our study suggests that roughly one-third of massive stars host a third companion within sim 30,000 AU. In addition, 15 RSGs are also identified as binary via HST/STIS spectra, and a handful of the binaries identified by the SED fitting are confirmed by their light curve and radial velocity dispersion. The stellar parameters of the companions, i.e. T_{eff}, R, L and log g, are calculated by model fitting.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Characterising gravitational wave stochastic background anisotropy with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Detecting a stochastic gravitational wave background, particularly radiation from individually unresolvable super-massive black hole binary systems, is one of the primary targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays. Increasingly more stringent upper limits are being set on these signals under the assumption that the background radiation is isotropic. However, some level of anisotropy may be present and the characterisation of the power at different angular scales carries important information. We show that the standard analysis for isotropic backgrounds can be generalised in a conceptually straightforward way to the case of generic anisotropic background radiation by decomposing the angular distribution of the gravitational wave power on the sky into multipole moments. We introduce the concept of generalised overlap reduction functions which characterise the effect of the anisotropy multipoles on the correlation of the timing residuals from the pulsars timed by a Pulsar Timing Array. In a search for a signal characterised by a generic anisotropy, the generalised overlap reduction functions play the role of the so-called Hellings and Downs curve used for isotropic radiation. We compute the generalised overlap reduction functions for a generic level of anisotropy and Pulsar Timing Array configuration. We also provide an order of magnitude estimate of the level of anisotropy that can be expected in the background generated by super-massive black hole binary systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013

PANGAEA: A Global and Inclusive Benchmark for Geospatial Foundation Models

Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as powerful tools for extracting representations from Earth observation data, but their evaluation remains inconsistent and narrow. Existing works often evaluate on suboptimal downstream datasets and tasks, that are often too easy or too narrow, limiting the usefulness of the evaluations to assess the real-world applicability of GFMs. Additionally, there is a distinct lack of diversity in current evaluation protocols, which fail to account for the multiplicity of image resolutions, sensor types, and temporalities, which further complicates the assessment of GFM performance. In particular, most existing benchmarks are geographically biased towards North America and Europe, questioning the global applicability of GFMs. To overcome these challenges, we introduce PANGAEA, a standardized evaluation protocol that covers a diverse set of datasets, tasks, resolutions, sensor modalities, and temporalities. It establishes a robust and widely applicable benchmark for GFMs. We evaluate the most popular GFMs openly available on this benchmark and analyze their performance across several domains. In particular, we compare these models to supervised baselines (e.g. UNet and vanilla ViT), and assess their effectiveness when faced with limited labeled data. Our findings highlight the limitations of GFMs, under different scenarios, showing that they do not consistently outperform supervised models. PANGAEA is designed to be highly extensible, allowing for the seamless inclusion of new datasets, models, and tasks in future research. By releasing the evaluation code and benchmark, we aim to enable other researchers to replicate our experiments and build upon our work, fostering a more principled evaluation protocol for large pre-trained geospatial models. The code is available at https://github.com/VMarsocci/pangaea-bench.

  • 15 authors
·
Dec 5, 2024

Characterising the Atmosphere of 55 Cancri e: 1D Forward Model Grid for Current and Future JWST Observations

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

  • 12 authors
·
Mar 20, 2025

Open-source Flux Transport (OFT). I. HipFT -- High-performance Flux Transport

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 10, 2025

Tides on Lava Worlds: Application to Close-in Exoplanets and the Early Earth-Moon System

Understanding the physics of planetary magma oceans has been the subject of growing efforts, in light of the increasing abundance of Solar system samples and extrasolar surveys. A rocky planet harboring such an ocean is likely to interact tidally with its host star, planetary companions, or satellites. To date, however, models of the tidal response and heat generation of magma oceans have been restricted to the framework of weakly viscous solids, ignoring the dynamical fluid behavior of the ocean beyond a critical melt fraction. Here we provide a handy analytical model that accommodates this phase transition, allowing for a physical estimation of the tidal response of lava worlds. We apply the model in two settings: The tidal history of the early Earth-Moon system in the aftermath of the giant impact; and the tidal interplay between short-period exoplanets and their host stars. For the former, we show that the fluid behavior of the Earth's molten surface drives efficient early Lunar recession to {sim} 25 Earth radii within 10^4{-} 10^5 years, in contrast with earlier predictions. For close-in exoplanets, we report on how their molten surfaces significantly change their spin-orbit dynamics, allowing them to evade spin-orbit resonances and accelerating their track towards tidal synchronization from a Gyr to Myr timescale. Moreover, we re-evaluate the energy budgets of detected close-in exoplanets, highlighting how the surface thermodynamics of these planets are likely controlled by enhanced, fluid-driven tidal heating, rather than vigorous insolation, and how this regime change substantially alters predictions for their surface temperatures.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 10, 2024

JAGB 2.0: Improved Constraints on the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch-based Hubble Constant from an Expanded Sample of JWST Observations

The J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch (JAGB) is an overdensity of stars in the near-infrared, attributed to carbon-rich asymptotic giant branch stars, and recently used as a standard candle for measuring extragalactic distances and the Hubble constant. Using JWST in Cycle 2, we extend JAGB measurements to 6 hosts of 9 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) (NGC 2525, NGC 3147, NGC 3370, NGC 3447, NGC 5468, and NGC 5861), with two at D sim 40 Mpc, all calibrated by the maser host NGC 4258. We investigate the effects of incompleteness and find that we are unable to recover a robust JAGB measurement in one of the two most distant hosts at R sim 40 Mpc, NGC 3147. We compile all JWST JAGB observations in SNe Ia hosts, 15 galaxies hosting 18 SNe Ia, from the SH0ES and CCHP programs and employ all literature measures (mode, mean, median, model). We find no significant mean difference between these distances and those from HST Cepheids, -0.03pm0.02 (stat) pm 0.05 (sys) mag. We find a difference of 0.11 pm 0.02 mag between JAGB mode measurements in the CCHP analyses of two fields in NGC 4258, a feature also seen in two SH0ES fields (see field-to-field variations in Li et al. 2024a), indicating significant field-to-field variation of JAGB measurements in NGC 4258 which produce a large absolute calibration uncertainty. Variations are also seen in the shape of the JAGB LF across galaxies so that different measures produce different values of the Hubble constant. We look for but do not (yet) find a standardizing relation between JAGB LF skew or color dependence and the apparent variation. Using the middle result of all JAGB measures to calibrate SNe Ia yields a Hubble constant of H_0 = 73.3 pm 1.4 (stat) pm 2.0 (sys) km/s/Mpc with the systematic dominated by apparent differences across NGC 4258 calibrating fields or their measures.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 7, 2025

Synthetic Light Curves and Spectra for the Photospheric Phase of a 3D Stripped-Envelope Supernova Explosion Model

We present synthetic light curves and spectra from three-dimensional (3D) Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations based on a 3D core-collapse supernova explosion model of an ultra-stripped 3.5,M_{odot} progenitor. Our calculations predict a fast and faint transient with Delta m_{15} sim 1- 2,mag and peak bolometric luminosity between -15.3,mag and -16.4,mag. Due to a large-scale unipolar asymmetry in the distribution of ^{56}Ni, there is a pronounced viewing-angle dependence with about 1,mag difference between the directions of highest and lowest luminosity. The predicted spectra for this rare class of explosions do not yet match any observed counterpart. They are dominated by prominent Mg~II lines, but features from O, C, Si, and Ca are also found. In particular, the O~I line at 7{774} appears as a blended feature together with Mg~II emission. Our model is not only faster and fainter than the observed Ib/c supernova population, but also shows a correlation between higher peak luminosity and larger Delta m_{15} that is not present in observational samples. A possible explanation is that the unusually small ejecta mass of our model accentuates the viewing-angle dependence of the photometry. We suggest that the viewing-angle dependence of the photometry may be used to constrain asymmetries in explosion models of more typical stripped-envelope supernova progenitors in future.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 28, 2024

Forecasting the Ionosphere from Sparse GNSS Data with Temporal-Fusion Transformers

The ionosphere critically influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations, yet accurate prediction of its variability remains challenging due to nonlinear couplings between solar, geomagnetic, and thermospheric drivers. Total Electron Content (TEC), a key ionospheric parameter, is derived from GNSS observations, but its reliable forecasting is limited by the sparse nature of global measurements and the limited accuracy of empirical models, especially during strong space weather conditions. In this work, we present a machine learning framework for ionospheric TEC forecasting that leverages Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) to predict sparse ionosphere data. Our approach accommodates heterogeneous input sources, including solar irradiance, geomagnetic indices, and GNSS-derived vertical TEC, and applies preprocessing and temporal alignment strategies. Experiments spanning 2010-2025 demonstrate that the model achieves robust predictions up to 24 hours ahead, with root mean square errors as low as 3.33 TECU. Results highlight that solar EUV irradiance provides the strongest predictive signals. Beyond forecasting accuracy, the framework offers interpretability through attention-based analysis, supporting both operational applications and scientific discovery. To encourage reproducibility and community-driven development, we release the full implementation as the open-source toolkit ionopy.

  • 10 authors
·
Aug 30, 2025

First systematic study reporting the changes in eclipse cut-off frequency for pulsar J1544+4937

We present results from a long-term monitoring of frequency dependent eclipses of the radio emission from PSR J1544+4937 which is a ``black widow spider'' millisecond pulsar (MSP) in a compact binary system. The majority of such systems often exhibit relatively long duration radio eclipses caused by ablated material from their companion stars. With the wide spectral bandwidth of upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (uGMRT), we present first systematic study of temporal variation of eclipse cut-off frequency. With decade-long monitoring of 39 eclipses for PSR J1544+4937, we notice significant changes in the observed cut-off frequency ranging from 343 pm 7 MHz to > 740 MHz. We also monitored changes in eclipse cut-off frequency on timescales of tens of days and observed a maximum change of ge 315 MHz between observations that were separated by 22 days. In addition, we observed a change of sim 47 MHz in eclipse cut-off frequency between adjacent orbits, i.e. on timescales of sim 2.9 hours. We infer that such changes in the eclipse cut-off frequency depict an eclipse environment for the PSR J1544+4937 system that is dynamically evolving, where, along with the change in electron density, the magnetic field could also be varying. We also report a significant correlation between the eclipse cut-off frequency and the mass loss rate of the companion. This study provides the first direct evidence of mass loss rate affecting the frequency dependent eclipsing in a spider MSP.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 3, 2023

SgrA* spin and mass estimates through the detection of multiple extremely large mass-ratio inspirals

We analyze the parameter estimation accuracy that can be achieved for the mass and spin of SgrA*, the SMBH in our Galactic Center, by detecting multiple extremely large mass-ratio inspirals (XMRIs). XMRIs are formed by brown dwarfs (BD) inspiraling into a supermassive black hole (SMBH), thus emitting gravitational waves (GWs) inside the detection band of future space-based detectors such as LISA and TianQin. Theoretical estimates suggest the presence of approximately 10 XMRIs emitting detectable GWs, making them some of the most promising candidates for space-based GW detectors. Our analysis indicates that even if individual sources have low SNRs (approx10), high-precision parameter estimates can still be achieved by detecting multiple sources. In this case, the accuracy of the parameter estimates increases by approximately one to two orders of magnitude, at least. Moreover, by analyzing a small sample of 400 initial conditions for XMRIs formed in the Galactic Center, we estimate that almost 80 % of the detectable XMRIs orbiting SgrA* will have eccentricities between 0.43 to 0.95 and an SNRin [10,100]. The remaining sim20 % of the sources have an SNRin [100,1000] and eccentricities ranging from 0.25 to 0.92. Additionally, some XMRIs with high SNR are far from being circular. These loud sources with SNRapprox 1000 can have eccentricities as high as eapprox0.7; although their detection chances are low, representing lesssim2 % of the detectable sources, their presence is not ruled out.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) I: Environmental Dependence of High-Redshift Galaxy Evolution

We introduce the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of zoom simulations using the EAGLE model. We resimulate a range of overdensities during the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) in order to build composite distribution functions, as well as explore the environmental dependence of galaxy formation and evolution during this critical period of galaxy assembly. The regions are selected from a large (3.2 ;cGpc)^{3} parent volume, based on their overdensity within a sphere of radius 14,h^{-1};cMpc. We then resimulate with full hydrodynamics, and employ a novel weighting scheme that allows the construction of composite distribution functions that are representative of the full parent volume. This significantly extends the dynamic range compared to smaller volume periodic simulations. We present an analysis of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF), the star formation rate distribution function (SFRF) and the star forming sequence (SFS) predicted by \flares, and compare to a number of observational and model constraints. We also analyse the environmental dependence over an unprecedented range of overdensity. Both the GSMF and the SFRF exhibit a clear double-Schechter form, up to the highest redshifts (z = 10). We also find no environmental dependence of the SFS normalisation. The increased dynamic range probed by FLARES will allow us to make predictions for a number of large area surveys that will probe the EoR in coming years, such as WFIRST and Euclid.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 15, 2020

A search for periodic activity in multi-peaked long gamma-ray bursts

A sizeable fraction of gamma-ray burst (GRB) light curves (LCs) features a sequence of peaks, which holds information on the unknown way energy is dissipated into gamma-rays over time. Traditional searches for periodic signals in GRB LCs turned out to be inconclusive, partly because they are challenging as a consequence of the short-lived, coloured-noise, and non-stationary nature of the LCs themselves. Yet, recent claims have revived the issue. We searched for periodic components in GRB LCs through a new approach to GRBs, that avoids most of the issues faced by traditional techniques. We identified peaks through a well tested algorithm and selected GRBs with at least 10 peaks out of 5 GRB catalogues (Swift/BAT, CGRO/BATSE, Fermi/GBM, Insight-HXMT, BeppoSAX/GRBM). Each GRB was simply treated as a discrete point process, whose realisation coincides with the sequence of peak times. We searched for possible periodic recurrences based on the multinomial distribution, after accounting for the clustering of peaks due to the non-stationarity of the GRB signals. The best candidate has a p-value of 3e-4 that there is no periodic recurrence. However, accounting for the multiple trials of 555 searched GRBs, its statistical significance is demoted to 17%. The overall distribution of the p-values obtained for all GRBs is compatible with a uniform distribution in [0,1]. We found no robust evidence for multi-peaked GRBs with periodic recurrences. We can exclude that a sizeable fraction (>~ 0.75) of peaks of each GRB with at least 10 peaks are periodic. While our result does not necessarily clash with claimed periodicities based on Fourier techniques, it constrains the putative recurrent behaviour, which would not manifest itself through the sequence of peaks, but, evidently, in a more elusive way.

  • 13 authors
·
Apr 10, 2025

Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based model for diffusional growth for the better parameterization of ISM clouds: A road map for improving climate model through small-scale model using observations

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 2, 2023

Optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The B, V, R, and I brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The B, V, and R brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The U and I brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec^{-2} brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the B and V brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT.

  • 30 authors
·
Oct 10, 2020

Resolving Pleiades binary stars with Gaia and speckle interferometric observations

The Pleiades is the most prominent open star cluster visible from Earth and an important benchmark for simple stellar populations, unified by common origin, age, and distance. Binary stars are its essential ingredient, yet their contribution remains uncertain due to heavy observational biases. A resolved multiplicity survey was conducted for a magnitude-limited G < 15mag sample of 423 potential cluster members, including sources with poorly fitted astrometric solutions in Gaia DR3. Speckle interferometric observations at the 2.5 meter telescope of SAI MSU observatory were combined with Gaia data, enabling the identification of 61 resolved binary or multiple systems within the 0.04 - 10 arcsec (5 - 1350 au) separation range. With speckle observations, we discovered 21 components in 20 systems. The existence of a Merope (23 Tau) companion is confirmed after several previous unsuccessful attempts. We show that the Gaia multipeak fraction is a strong predictor of subarcsecond multiplicity, as all sources with ipd_frac_multi_peak > 4% are successfully resolved. We found that 10% of Pleiades stars have a companion with a mass ratio q > 0.5 within projected separation of 27 < s < 1350 au, and confirm a deficit of wide binaries with s > 300 au. An observed dearth of wide pairs with large mass ratio (q > 0.55) may imprint the transition from hard to soft binaries regime at the early stages of cluster evolution. The total binary fraction for q > 0.5 systems is extrapolated to be around 25%.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 30, 2024

Unveiling two deeply embedded young protostars in the S68N Class 0 protostellar core with JWST/NIRSpec

The near-infrared (NIR) emission of the youngest protostars still needs to be characterized to better understand the evolution of their accretion and ejection activity. We analyze James Webb Space Telescope NIRSpec 1.7 -- 5.3 mum observations of two deeply embedded sources in the S68N protostellar core in Serpens. The North Central (NC) source exhibits a highly obscured spectrum (A_K ~ 4.8 mag) that is modeled with a pre-main-sequence photosphere and a hot disk component. The photospheric parameters are consistent with a young, low-mass photosphere, as suggested by the low surface gravity, log g of 1.95 pm 0.15 cm s^{-2}. The hot disk suggests that accretion onto the central protostellar embryo is ongoing, although prototypical accretion-tracing emission lines HI are not detected. The South Central (SC) source, which is even more embedded (A_K ~ 8 mag; no continuum is detected shortward of 3.6 mum) appears to be driving the large-scale S68N protostellar outflow, and launches a collimated hot molecular jet detected in \Ht and CO ro-vibrational lines. Shock modeling of the \Ht (ro)vibrational lines establishes that fast C-type shocks (geq 30 km s^{-1}), with high pre-shock density (geq 10^7 cm^{-3}), and strong magnetic field (b ~ 3--10, where B = b,times,textrm{n_{H} (cm^{-3})},muG) best match the data. The bright CO fundamental line forest suggests energetic excitation, with the contribution of non-LTE effects, ie irradiation pumping. Detected OH and CH^{+} ro-vibrational lines support this hypothesis. These two Class 0 protostars seem to be in very young evolutionary stages and still have to acquire the bulk of their final stellar masses. These results demonstrate that JWST enables unprecedented diagnostics of these first stages of the protostellar evolutionary phase.

  • 14 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024

Outward Migration of a Gas Accreting Planet: A Semi-Analytical Formula

Type II orbital migration is a key process to regulate the mass and semimajor axis distribution of exoplanetary giant planets. The conventional formula of type II migration generally predicts too rapid inward migration to reconcile with the observed pile-up of gas giant beyond 1 au. Analyzing the recent high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations by Li et al. (2024) and Pan et al. (2025) that show robust outward migration of a gas accreting planet, we here clarify the condition for the outward migration to occur and derive a general semi-analytical formula that can be applied for broad range of planet mass and disk conditions. The striking outward migration is caused by azimuthal asymmetry in corotation torque exerted from cicumplanetary disk regions (connecting to horseshoe flow) that is produced by the planetary gas accretion, while the conventional inward migration model is based on radial asymmetry in the torques from the circumstellar protoplanetry disk. We found that the azimuthal asymmetry dominates and the migration is outward, when the gap depth defined by the surface density reduction factor of 1/(1+K') is in the range of 0.03 lesssim K' lesssim 50. Using simple models with the new formula, we demonstrate that the outward migration plays an important role in shaping the mass and semimajor axis distribution of gas giants. The concurrent dependence of planets' accretion rate and migration direction on their masses and disk properties potentially reproduces the observed pile-up of exoplanetary gas giants beyond 1 au, although more detailed planet population synthesis calculations are needed in the future.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 28, 2025

Environmental dependence of galaxy properties in the southern GAMA regions

Using data from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, we investigate how galaxy properties correlate with the local environment, focusing on the two southern regions of the survey (G02 and G23) that have not previously been examined in this context. We employ two-point and marked correlation functions to quantify the environmental dependence of galaxy color, stellar mass, luminosity across the u, g, r, J, and K bands, as well as star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). We also assess the impact of redshift incompleteness and cosmic variance on these clustering measurements. Our results show that u-r and g-r colors are most strongly correlated with local overdensity, followed by stellar mass. The sSFR exhibits a clear inverse relationship with density of the environment, consistent with the trend observed for u-band luminosity, which traces young stellar populations. In contrast, galaxies brighter in the g, J, and K bands preferentially inhabit denser regions. By comparing our measurements from the southern regions with those from the equatorial regions of GAMA, we find that cosmic variance does not significantly influence our conclusions. However, redshift incompleteness affects the clustering measurements, as revealed through comparisons of subsets within the G02 region. The measured correlations provide key constraints for models of galaxy assembly across mass and environment, while the environmental trends in color and near-infrared luminosity offer a means to trace stellar mass growth and quenching with redshift.

  • 7 authors
·
May 15, 2025

Mapping gravitational-wave backgrounds in modified theories of gravity using pulsar timing arrays

We extend our previous work on applying CMB techniques to the mapping of gravitational-wave backgrounds to backgrounds which have non-GR polarisations. Our analysis and results are presented in the context of pulsar-timing array observations, but the overarching methods are general, and can be easily applied to LIGO or eLISA observations using appropriately modified response functions. Analytic expressions for the pulsar-timing response to gravitational waves with non-GR polarisation are given for each mode of a spin-weighted spherical-harmonic decomposition of the background, which permit the signal to be mapped across the sky to any desired resolution. We also derive the pulsar-timing overlap reduction functions for the various non-GR polarisations, finding analytic forms for anisotropic backgrounds with scalar-transverse ("breathing") and vector-longitudinal polarisations, and a semi-analytic form for scalar-longitudinal backgrounds. Our results indicate that pulsar-timing observations will be completely insensitive to scalar-transverse mode anisotropies in the polarisation amplitude beyond dipole, and anisotropies in the power beyond quadrupole. Analogously to our previous findings that pulsar-timing observations lack sensitivity to tensor-curl modes for a transverse-traceless tensor background, we also find insensitivity to vector-curl modes for a vector-longitudinal background.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 29, 2015

Pre-perihelion Development of Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS

We describe pre-perihelion optical observations of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS taken during July - September 2025 using the Nordic Optical Telescope. Fixed aperture photometry of the comet is well described by a power law function of heliocentric distance, rH, with the exponent (``index") n = 3.8+/-0.3 across the 4.6 au to 1.8 au distance range (phase function 0.04+/-0.02 magnitude/degree assumed). This indicates that the dust production rates vary in proportion to rH**(-1.8+/-0.3). An rH**(-2) variation is expected of a strongly volatile material, and consistent with independent spectroscopic observations showing that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of activity. The measured heliocentric index is unremarkable in the context of solar system comets, for which n is widely dispersed, and provides no basis on which to describe 3I as either dynamically old (thermally processed) or new (pristine). The morphology of the comet changes from a Sun-facing dust fan in the early 2025 July observations, to one dominated by an antisolar dust tail at later dates. We attribute the delayed emergence of the tail to the large size (effective radius 0.1 mm) and slow ejection (5 m/s) of the optically dominant dust particles, and their consequently sluggish response to solar radiation pressure. Small (micron-sized) particles may be present but not in numbers sufficient to dominate the scattering cross-section. Their relative depletion possibly reflects interparticle cohesion, which binds small particles more effectively than large ones. A similar preponderance of 0.1 mm grains was reported in 2I/Borisov. However, 2I differed from 3I in having a much smaller (asteroid-like) heliocentric index, n = 1.9+/-0.1. Dust production rates in 3I are 180 kg/s at 2 au, compared with 70 kg/s in 2I/Borisov at the same distance.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2025

A JWST Project on 47 Tucanae: Kinematics, energy equipartition and anisotropy of multiple populations

Recent work with JWST has demonstrated its capability to identify and chemically characterize multiple populations in globular clusters down to the H-burning limit. In this study, we explore the kinematics of multiple populations in the globular cluster 47 Tucanae by combining data from JWST, HST, and Gaia. We analyzed velocity dispersion and anisotropy profiles from the cluster center out to sim10R_h. Our findings indicate that while 1G stars are isotropic, 2G stars are significantly radially anisotropic. These results align with the predictions of simulations of the dynamical evolution of clusters where 2G stars are initially more centrally concentrated than 1G stars. Furthermore, we subdivided the 2G population into two subpopulations: 2G_A and 2G_B, with the latter being more chemically extreme. We compared their dynamical profiles and found no significant differences. For the first time, we measured the degree of energy equipartition among the multiple populations of 47 Tucanae. Overall, within the analyzed radial range (sim2-4R_h), both populations exhibit a low degree of energy equipartition. The most significant differences between 1G and 2G stars are observed in the tangential velocity component, where 2G stars are characterized by a stronger degree of energy equipartition than 1G stars. In the radial component, the behavior of 1G and 2G stars is more variable, with differences largely dependent on radius. Finally, our analysis reveals that the ratio of rotational velocity to velocity dispersion is larger for the 2G population, while 1G stars exhibit higher skewness in their tangential proper motions, providing further evidence of differences in the kinematic properties of the 1G and 2G populations.

  • 19 authors
·
Feb 5, 2025

The Low Mass Ratio Overcontact Binary GV Leonis and Its Circumbinary Companion

Photometric and spectroscopic observations of GV Leo were performed from 2017 to 2024. The light curves show a flat bottom at the primary eclipse and the conventional O'Connell effect. The echelle spectra reveal that the effective temperature and rotation velocity of the more massive secondary are T_{rm eff,2} = 5220pm120 K and v_2 sin i = 223pm40 km s^{-1}, respectively. Our binary modeling indicates that the program target is a W-subclass contact binary with a mass ratio of q = 5.48, an inclination angle of i = 81^circ.68, a temperature difference of (T_{rm eff,1}-T_{rm eff,2}) = 154 K, and a filling factor of f = 36 \%. The light asymmetries were reasonably modeled by a dark starspot on the secondary's photosphere. Including our 26 minimum epochs, 84 times of minimum light were used to investigate the orbital period of the system. We found that the eclipse times of GV Leo have varied by a sinusoid with a period of 14.9 years and a semi-amplitude of 0.0076 days superimposed on a downward parabola. The periodic modulation is interpreted as a light time effect produced by an unseen outer tertiary with a minimum mass of 0.26 M_odot, while the parabolic component is thought to be a combination of mass transfer (secondary to primary) and angular momentum loss driven by magnetic braking. The circumbinary tertiary would have caused the eclipsing pair of GV Leo to evolve into its current short-period contact state by removing angular momentum from the primordial widish binary.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 13, 2025

What Determines the Brightness of the Magnetically Open Solar Corona?: Insights from Three-dimensional Radiative Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations and Observations

We investigate the relationship between solar coronal holes and open-field regions using three-dimensional radiative magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations combined with remote-sensing observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Our numerical simulations reveal that magnetically open regions in the corona can exhibit brightness comparable to quiet regions, challenging the conventional view that open-field regions are inherently dark coronal holes. We find that the coronal brightness is primarily determined by the total energy input from photospheric magnetic activities, such as the small-scale dynamo, rather than differences in dissipative processes within the corona. Using synthesized EUV intensity maps, we show that brightness thresholds commonly used to identify coronal holes may overlook open-field regions, especially at lower spatial resolutions. Observational analysis utilizing SDO/HMI and AIA synoptic maps supports our simulation results, demonstrating that magnetic field extrapolation techniques, such as the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model, are sensitive to the chosen parameters, including the source surface height. We suggest that discrepancies in estimates of open magnetic flux (the ``open flux problem'') arise both from the modeling assumptions in coronal magnetic field extrapolation and systematic biases in solar surface magnetic field observations. Our findings indicate the need for reconsidering criteria used to identify coronal holes as indicators of open-field regions to better characterize the solar open magnetic flux.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 18, 2025

The largest ground-based catalogue of M-dwarf flares

We present the largest ground-based catalogue of M-dwarf flares to date, comprising 1,229 time-resolved events identified in Zwicky Transient Facility Data Release 17. Using high-cadence ZTF observations collected between April 2018 and September 2020, we analyzed over 93 million variable light curves containing 4.1 billion photometric measurements. Flare candidates were identified through a machine-learning pipeline trained on simulated light curves generated by injecting TESS-based flare templates into ZTF data and then refined through an extensive post-filtering stage combining an additional classifier, metadata checks, and human inspection. For 655 flares with reliable Gaia-based distances and well-sampled light curves, we derived bolometric energies ranging from 10^31 to 10^35 erg. A clear correlation is observed between flare frequency and spectral subtype, with a sharp increase toward later M dwarfs, particularly near M4-M5, coinciding with the transition to full convection. Using 680 flaring stars with known vertical distances from the Galactic plane, we find that the fraction of flaring stars decreases with increasing Galactic height. The resulting catalogue provides the most comprehensive ground-based sample of M-dwarf flares and establishes a framework for flare detection and classification in upcoming wide-field surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 28, 2025

AGBD: A Global-scale Biomass Dataset

Accurate estimates of Above Ground Biomass (AGB) are essential in addressing two of humanity's biggest challenges, climate change and biodiversity loss. Existing datasets for AGB estimation from satellite imagery are limited. Either they focus on specific, local regions at high resolution, or they offer global coverage at low resolution. There is a need for a machine learning-ready, globally representative, high-resolution benchmark. Our findings indicate significant variability in biomass estimates across different vegetation types, emphasizing the necessity for a dataset that accurately captures global diversity. To address these gaps, we introduce a comprehensive new dataset that is globally distributed, covers a range of vegetation types, and spans several years. This dataset combines AGB reference data from the GEDI mission with data from Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 imagery. Additionally, it includes pre-processed high-level features such as a dense canopy height map, an elevation map, and a land-cover classification map. We also produce a dense, high-resolution (10m) map of AGB predictions for the entire area covered by the dataset. Rigorously tested, our dataset is accompanied by several benchmark models and is publicly available. It can be easily accessed using a single line of code, offering a solid basis for efforts towards global AGB estimation. The GitHub repository github.com/ghjuliasialelli/AGBD serves as a one-stop shop for all code and data.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 7, 2024

SNAD catalogue of M-dwarf flares from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Most of the stars in the Universe are M spectral class dwarfs, which are known to be the source of bright and frequent stellar flares. In this paper, we propose new approaches to discover M-dwarf flares in ground-based photometric surveys. We employ two approaches: a modification of a traditional method of parametric fit search and a machine learning algorithm based on active anomaly detection. The algorithms are applied to Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data release 8, which includes the data from the ZTF high-cadence survey, allowing us to reveal flares lasting from minutes to hours. We analyze over 35 million ZTF light curves and visually scrutinize 1168 candidates suggested by the algorithms to filter out artifacts, occultations of a star by an asteroid, and other types of known variable objects. The result of this analysis is the largest catalogue of ZTF flaring stars to date, representing 134 flares with amplitudes ranging from -0.2 to -4.6 magnitudes, including repeated flares. Using Pan-STARRS DR2 colors, we assign a spectral subclass to each object in the sample. For 13 flares with well-sampled light curves and available geometric distances from Gaia DR3, we estimate the bolometric energy. This research shows that the proposed methods combined with the ZTF's cadence strategy are suitable for identifying M-dwarf flares and other fast transients, allowing for the extraction of significant astrophysical information from their light curves.

  • 14 authors
·
Apr 11, 2024

Real-Time Long Horizon Air Quality Forecasting via Group-Relative Policy Optimization

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 27, 2025

Searching For Anisotropic Gravitational-wave Backgrounds Using Pulsar Timing Arrays

We present the results of simulated injections testing the first Bayesian search-pipeline capable of investigating the angular-structure of a gravitational-wave (GW) background influencing pulsar signals. A stochastic background of GWs from the incoherent superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries at nHz frequencies is likely to be the dominant GW signal detectable by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Even though one might expect a background composed of a high-redshift cosmological population of sources to be fairly isotropic, deviations from isotropy may be indicative of local GW hotspots or some form of continuous anisotropy in the angular-distribution of GW-power. A GWB induces time-of-arrival deviations in pulsar signals which are correlated between separated pulsars. In an isotropic background this cross-correlation follows a distinctive relationship, known as the Hellings and Downs curve, that depends only on the angular separation of the pulsars. If the background is anisotropic, the cross-correlation is different, but predictable, and also depends on the absolute position of the pulsars. By simulating datasets containing GWBs with various anisotropic configurations, we have explored the prospects for constraining anisotropy using near future data. We find that at moderate to high signal to noise ratio the assumption of isotropy is no longer an appropriate description of the simulated background. Furthermore, we can recover the nature of the injected anisotropy in a Bayesian parameter-estimation search, and propose a prior on the anisotropy search-space motivated by the physicality of the implied distribution of sources.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013

1FLAT: a Firmamento-based catalog of AGN in Fermi-LAT high Galactic latitude γ-ray sources

We present a systematic reassessment of 5,062 high-Galactic latitude gamma-ray sources from the Fermi-LAT 4FGL-DR4 catalog using Firmamento, a web-based platform for multi-frequency source discovery and analysis. Our goal is to provide an independent evaluation of LAT gamma-ray source associations through alternative spectral and spatial methods that combine recent and legacy survey data, supplemented by human supervision of spectral energy distributions (SEDs), source morphology, flux variability, and template-based comparisons. Firmamento confirms the 4FGL-DR4 and 4LAC-DR3 counterparts or unassociated sources in 4,493 cases (88.8%), demonstrating the robustness of both approaches. Beyond this general agreement, we identify 421 new blazar counterparts among previously unassociated sources, thereby reducing the fraction of unidentified extragalactic Fermi-LAT sources from 25% to 17%. In addition, in 64 cases we find alternative blazar associations, while in 49 instances we do not confirm the 4FGL-DR4 association. For all confirmed blazar counterparts we provide homogeneous estimates of synchrotron peak frequency and peak flux using machine-learning and template-based methods; these agree with 4LAC-DR3 values in most cases, though significant discrepancies appear for a few dozen sources, often due to improved X-ray coverage. The primary outcome of this work is the 1st Firmamento LAT AGN table (1FLAT), made publicly available through the Firmamento platform (https://firmamento.nyuad.nyu.edu), where all related multi-wavelength data and images are available. The project involved extensive manual validation and benefited from the active participation of graduate and undergraduate students, highlighting the platform's value for both research and education.

  • 18 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025

Probing Gravity at Large Scales with kSZ-Reconstructed Velocities and CMB Lensing

We present a new method for measuring the E_G statistic that combines two CMB secondaries -- the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect and CMB lensing -- for the first time to probe gravity on linear scales. The E_G statistic is a discriminating tool for modified gravity theories, which leave imprints in lensing observables and peculiar velocities. Existing E_G measurements rely on redshift space distortions (RSD) to infer the velocity field. Here, we employ kSZ velocity-reconstruction instead of RSD, a complementary technique that constrains the largest-scale modes better than the galaxy survey it uses. We construct a novel V_G estimator that involves a ratio between cross-correlations of a galaxy sample with a CMB convergence map and that with a 3D kSZ-reconstructed velocity field. We forecast for current and upcoming CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Simons Observatory (SO), respectively, in combination with three spectroscopic galaxy samples from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We find cumulative detection significances in the range S/N sim 20-55, which can robustly test the scale-independent E_G prediction under general relativity (GR) at different effective redshifts of the galaxy samples (zapprox 0.73, 1.33, 1.84). In particular, the SOtimesDESI LRG measurement would be able to distinguish between GR and certain modified gravity models, including Hu-Sawicki f(R) and Chameleon theories, with high confidence. The proposed V_G estimator opens up a new avenue for stress-testing gravity and the LambdaCDM+GR model at the largest observable scales.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 31, 2025

The interstellar flux gap: From dust to kilometer-scale objects

Context. Three kilometer-sized interstellar objects (ISOs) have been detected transiting the Solar System, and spacecraft have directly measured micrometer-scale interstellar dust (ISD). Yet no intermediate-size interstellar meteoroids have been identified in current meteor surveys. Aims. We test whether a power-law flux extrapolation connecting spacecraft ISD and kilometer-scale ISOs is consistent with meteor surveys, and we quantify the expected interstellar impacting flux based on various observational reports. Methods. We compiled differential fluxes and limits from spacecraft ISD, radar and optical meteor surveys, and theoretical estimates. We evaluated the power-law size-frequency fits, computed the 3I-like flux, and compared measured fluxes to predictions. Results. The spacecraft-measured dust flux exceeds extrapolations constrained by meteor surveys and kilometer-scale ISOs by sim2-7 orders of magnitude. An r^{-3.0} fit combining spacecraft ISD detections with kilometer-scale ISOs overpredicts the number of meteors with hyperbolic orbits, whereas slopes of r^{-2.7}-r^{-2.3} (derived from radar and optical meteor upper limits, respectively) instead yield interplanetary-to-interstellar flux ratios of 10^{3}-10^{6}. Conclusions. A simple power-law from ISD to ISOs is inconsistent with meteor survey constraints and yields unrealistic predictions for interstellar meteoroids. The data reveal a gap between submicron dust entrained in the Local Interstellar Cloud (LIC) and macroscopic bodies ejected from planetary systems. This gap may reflect distinct origins and destruction-transport processes rather than a continuous size-frequency distribution. This would imply either the dominance of a small-particle LIC component or the need to reassess spacecraft dust fluxes.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 3, 2025

Revisiting the Classics: On the Optical Colours of Novae as Standard Crayons

We present a systematic study of the BVRI colours of novae over the course of their eruptions. Where possible, interstellar reddening was measured using the equivalent widths of Diffuse Interstellar Bands (DIBs). Some novae lack spectra with sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise ratios; therefore, we supplement as necessary with 3D and 2D dust maps. Utilising only novae with DIB- or 3D-map-based E(B-V), we find an average intrinsic (B-V)_0 colour of novae at V-band light curve peak of 0.18 with a standard deviation of 0.31, based on a sample of 23 novae. When the light curve has declined by 2 magnitudes (t_2), we find an average (B-V)_0 = -0.02 with a standard deviation of 0.19. These average colours are consistent with previous findings, although the spreads are larger than previously found due to more accurate reddening estimates. We also examined the intrinsic (R-I)_0 and (V-R)_0 colours across our sample. These colours behave similarly to (B-V)_0, except that the (V-R)_0 colour gets redder after peak, likely due to the contributions of emission line flux. We searched for correlations between nova colours and t_2, peak V-band absolute magnitude, and GeV gamma-ray luminosity, but find no statistically significant correlations. Nova colours can therefore be used as standard "crayons" to estimate interstellar reddening from photometry alone, with 0.2--0.3 mag uncertainty. We present a novel Bayesian strategy for estimating distances to Galactic novae based on these E(B-V) measurements, independent of assumptions about luminosity, built using 3D dust maps and a stellar mass model of the Milky Way.

  • 12 authors
·
Dec 19, 2024

Mapping the Chemo-dynamics of the Galactic disk using the LAMOST and APOGEE red clump stars

A detailed measurement is made of the metallicity distributions, kinematics and dynamics of the thin and thick disks, across a large disk volume (5.0 leq R leq 15.0 kpc and |Z| leq3.0 kpc), by using the LAMOST-APOGEE red clump stars. The metallicity distributions results show that the radial metallicity gradient Delta[Fe/H]/DeltaR of the thin disk weakens with |Z| from -0.06 dex kpc^{-1} at around |Z| < 0.25 kpc to -0.02 dex kpc^{-1} at around |Z| > 2.75 kpc, while the thick disk displays a global weak positive Delta[Fe/H]/DeltaR, generally weaker than 0.01 dex kpc^{-1}. The vertical metallicity gradient Delta[Fe/H]/Delta|Z| weakened steadily from -0.36 dex kpc^{-1} at R sim 5.5 kpc to -0.05 dex kpc^{-1} at around R > 11.5 kpc for the thin disk, while the thick disk presents an almost constant value (nearly -0.06 sim -0.08 dex kpc^{-1}) for all the R bins. These results indicate the contribution of the radial migration to the disk evolution, and the obvious north-south asymmetry in [Fe/H] may be linked to the disk warp and/or the disk perturbation events. The oscillations of the corrected Delta[Fe/H]/Delta|Z| with R are likely because of the resonances with the Galactic Bar. Our detailed measurements of DeltaV_{phi}/Delta[Fe/H] indicate an "inside-out" and "upside-down" star formation scenario for the thick disk. The results of eccentricity distributions and [alpha/Fe]--velocity dispersion relations are likely to suggest that the thick disk stars require an obvious contribution from other heating mechanisms such as merger and accretion, or born in the chaotic mergers of gas-rich systems and/or turbulent interstellar medium.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 4, 2024

AstroMLab 4: Benchmark-Topping Performance in Astronomy Q&A with a 70B-Parameter Domain-Specialized Reasoning Model

General-purpose large language models, despite their broad capabilities, often struggle with specialized domain knowledge, a limitation particularly pronounced in more accessible, lower-parameter versions. This gap hinders their deployment as effective agents in demanding fields such as astronomy. Building on our prior work with AstroSage-8B, this study introduces AstroSage-70B, a significantly larger and more advanced domain-specialized natural-language AI assistant. It is designed for research and education across astronomy, astrophysics, space science, astroparticle physics, cosmology, and astronomical instrumentation. Developed from the Llama-3.1-70B foundation, AstroSage-70B underwent extensive continued pre-training on a vast corpus of astronomical literature, followed by supervised fine-tuning and model merging. Beyond its 70-billion parameter scale, this model incorporates refined datasets, judiciously chosen learning hyperparameters, and improved training procedures, achieving state-of-the-art performance on complex astronomical tasks. Notably, we integrated reasoning chains into the SFT dataset, enabling AstroSage-70B to either answer the user query immediately, or first emit a human-readable thought process. Evaluated on the AstroMLab-1 benchmark -- comprising 4,425 questions from literature withheld during training -- AstroSage-70B achieves state-of-the-art performance. It surpasses all other tested open-weight and proprietary models, including leading systems like o3, Gemini-2.5-Pro, Claude-3.7-Sonnet, Deepseek-R1, and Qwen-3-235B, even those with API costs two orders of magnitude higher. This work demonstrates that domain specialization, when applied to large-scale models, can enable them to outperform generalist counterparts in specialized knowledge areas like astronomy, thereby advancing the frontier of AI capabilities in the field.

  • 10 authors
·
May 23, 2025

Planck 2018 results. V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

  • 168 authors
·
Jul 30, 2019

Constraints on Cosmic Rays Acceleration in Bright Gamma-ray Bursts with Observations of Fermi

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are widely suggested as potential sources of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). The kinetic energy of the jets dissipates, leading to the production of an enormous amount of gamma-ray photons and possibly also the acceleration of protons. The accelerated protons will interact with the radiation of the GRB via the photomeson and Bethe-Heitler processes, which can initiate electromagnetic cascades. This process can give rise to broadband radiation up to the GeV-TeV gamma-ray regime. The expected gamma-ray flux from cascades depends on properties of the GRB jet, such as the dissipation radius R_{rm diss}, the bulk Lorentz factor Gamma, and the baryon loading factor eta_p. Therefore, observations of Fermi-LAT can impose constraints on these important parameters. In this study, we select 12 GRBs of high keV-MeV fluence and constrain the baryon loading factor, under different combinations of the bulk Lorentz factor and the dissipation radius based on Fermi-LAT's measurements. Our findings indicate a strong constraint of eta_p<10 for most selected GRBs over a large parameter space except for large dissipation radii (gtrsim 10^{15}rm cm) and high bulk Lorentz factors (gtrsim 600). The constraint is comparable to, and in some GRBs even stronger than, that from high-energy neutrinos for stacked GRBs. Our results suggest that for typical bulk Lorentz factor of several hundreds, the dissipation radii of GRBs need be large to avoid overshooting the GeV gamma-ray flux during the prompt emission phase of GRBs, which can be used to constrain GRBs.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 16, 2025

Estimating constraints on cosmological parameters via the canonical and the differential redshift drift with SKA HI 21-cm observations

Redshift drift effect, an observational probe that indenpendent of cosmological models, presents unique applications in specific cosmological epoch. By quantifying redshift drift signal , researchers can determine the rate of the Universe's accelerated expansion and impose constraints on cosmological models and parameters. This study evaluates the precision in cosmological parameters estimation derived from this signal via HI 21cm signal, that observed by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope, with spectral resolutions of 0.001 Hz and 0.002 Hz over an observational period of Delta T = 0.5 year, utilizing two established techniques: the canonical redshift drift and the differential redshift drift method. The primary objective of this project is to ascertain the rate of cosmic acceleration and establish a solid foundation for real-time cosmology. The results reveal that both the two methods impose highly precise constraints on cosmological parameters, with accuracy reaching the level of millimeter per second (mm/s) or better. However, the canonical method provides relatively less stringent compared to the differential approach. Furthermore, when solely constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m, the strategy can be adapted to the canonical method. Nonetheless, the differential method exhibits clear advantages when simultaneously constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m and the equation of state of dark energy. These findings validate SKA's capability in detecting redshift drift and refining observational cosmology and indicates the effect can offer superior diagnostic capabilities compared to other techniques, provided that appropriate observational equipment or sufficient observational time is employed.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 18, 2025

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2023

Structure and Dynamics of the Young Massive Star Cluster Westerlund 1

We present a structural analysis of the young massive star cluster Westerlund 1 (Wd 1). With multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, we measure the proper motions of 10346 stars and determine their kinematic memberships by fitting a Gaussian mixture model to their proper motions. After correcting for extinction and completeness, we model the stellar density distribution and confirm the presence of an elongation with an eccentricity of 0.71. The eccentricity decreases slightly with increasing mass. We fit the radial profile with the Elson, Fall, and Freeman model, observing a decrease in the core radius with increasing mass, indicative of weak but detectable mass segregation. This finding is further supported by a measured mass segregation ratio of Lambda_rm MSR=1.11pm0.11, only above 1 by 1sigma, and slightly shorter minimum spanning tree length for higher mass bins. The cluster has a 1D velocity dispersion of 3.42 pm 0.10~km,s^{-1}, suggesting it is subvirial. The subvirial state implies either exceptionally high star formation efficiency or inefficient stellar feedback caused by local gas expulsion before stars reach the cluster. The crossing time is 0.30 Myr and the relaxation time is 0.26 Gyr. Given the age of Wd 1 of 10.7 Myr, we expect evident mass segregation for stars more massive than 10~M_odot, which accounts for the minor mass segregation found in the mass range of 1.00x201312.14~M_odot in this work. This suggests the overall mass segregation in Wd 1 is not primordial.

  • 11 authors
·
Jan 28, 2025

The impact of stellar winds and tidal locking effects on the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets around M dwarf stars

We present an assessment of the effects of stellar wind magnetic and mechanical components on the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets orbiting the inner and outer radii of the habitable zone (HZ) of M dwarfs. We consider stars with masses in the range of 0.09 - 0.75 M_odot and planets with a surface dipolar magnetic field of 0.5 G. We estimate the size of the magnetospheres of such exoplanets using the pressure balance equation including the contribution of magnetic and ram pressures from stellar winds. We explore different scenarios, including fast and slow stellar winds, to assess the relevance of kinetic contribution. Furthermore, the effect of tidal locking and potential deviations from the Parker spiral, typically used to describe the interplanetary magnetic field, are analyzed. We show that for low mass stars (M < 0.15 M_odot), the ram pressure exerted by stellar winds affects the size of the magnetosphere more than the stellar wind magnetic pressure. Interestingly, when the ram pressure is not much stronger than the magnetic pressure, typically for higher mass stars, the inclusion of ram pressure can be beneficial to the magnetosphere due to the magnetopause currents. A magnetosphere with the size of that of modern Earth is difficult to achieve with the current assumptions. However, an early Earth magnetosphere is achieved by roughly half of our hypothetical planets orbiting the outer radius of the HZ in most of the considered cases. We find that deviations from the Parker spiral can affect the results significantly, reducing the magnetosphere by 56% in extreme cases. Most of the hypothetical planets are most likely (or might be) tidally locked, with the notable exception of those orbiting the outer HZ of GJ 846 and V1005 Ori.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 23, 2025

Testing the extended corona model with the optical/UV reverberation mapping of the accretion disk

The illumination of the accretion disks is frequently studied assuming that the incident X-ray flux is a point-like source. The approach is referred as lamppost model.The most recent computations of the X-ray reprocessing by the disk take into account the departure from the simple lamppost models. However, in computations of the incident flux thermalization and subsequent re-emission in the optical-UV band the lamppost approximation is most frequently assumed. We test if the UV-optical reverberation mapping and time delay measurements are sensitive to this assumption. We assume that the incident radiation originates from a region extended along the symmetry axis. To model this, we adopt a simple setup by representing the emission as two lamps irradiating the disk simultaneously from two different heights. We then compare the resulting predictions with those obtained for a single lamppost located at an intermediate height. We show at the basis of the transfer function that the deviation of the wavelength-dependent delay curve shows at most a difference of 20% in comparison to a single lamppost, assuming the black hole mass of 10^8 M_{odot}, Eddington ratio 1, and the location of the lamps at 5 and 100 rg. The maximum deviation happens for the lamp luminosity ratio sim3. When simulating light curves for a two-lamp setup and a standard lamppost with the same black hole mass and a sampling rate of 0.1 days, we find no measurable differences in the ICCF profiles between the two setups. Larger black hole mass and considerably lower Eddington ratio would allow to see larger differences between a single lamppost and a two-lampost model. UV/optical reverberation mapping is not very sensitive to the vertical extension of the corona.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 1, 2025

GW-YOLO: Multi-transient segmentation in LIGO using computer vision

Time series data and their time-frequency representation from gravitational-wave interferometers present multiple opportunities for the use of artificial intelligence methods associated with signal and image processing. Closely connected with this is the real-time aspect associated with gravitational-wave interferometers and the astrophysical observations they perform; the discovery potential of these instruments can be significantly enhanced when data processing can be achieved in O(1s) timescales. In this work, we introduce a novel signal and noise identification tool based on the YOLO (You Only Look Once) object detection framework. For its application into gravitational waves, we will refer to it as GW-YOLO. This tool can provide scene identification capabilities and essential information regarding whether an observed transient is any combination of noise and signal. Additionally, it supplies detailed time-frequency coordinates of the detected objects in the form of pixel masks, an essential property that can be used to understand and characterize astrophysical sources, as well as instrumental noise. The simultaneous identification of noise and signal, combined with precise pixel-level localization, represents a significant advancement in gravitational-wave data analysis. Our approach yields a 50\% detection efficiency for binary black hole signals at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 15 when such signals overlap with transient noise artifacts. When noise artifacts overlap with binary neutron star signals, our algorithm attains 50\% detection efficiency at an SNR of 30. This presents the first quantitative assessment of the ability to detect astrophysical events overlapping with realistic, instrument noise present in gravitational-wave interferometers.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 24, 2025

Probing X-ray Timing and Spectral Variability in the Blazar PKS 2155-304 Over a Decade of XMM-Newton Observations

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

  • 8 authors
·
Oct 2, 2024

OmniEarth-Bench: Towards Holistic Evaluation of Earth's Six Spheres and Cross-Spheres Interactions with Multimodal Observational Earth Data

Existing benchmarks for Earth science multimodal learning exhibit critical limitations in systematic coverage of geosystem components and cross-sphere interactions, often constrained to isolated subsystems (only in Human-activities sphere or atmosphere) with limited evaluation dimensions (less than 16 tasks). To address these gaps, we introduce OmniEarth-Bench, the first comprehensive multimodal benchmark spanning all six Earth science spheres (atmosphere, lithosphere, Oceansphere, cryosphere, biosphere and Human-activities sphere) and cross-spheres with one hundred expert-curated evaluation dimensions. Leveraging observational data from satellite sensors and in-situ measurements, OmniEarth-Bench integrates 29,779 annotations across four tiers: perception, general reasoning, scientific knowledge reasoning and chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. This involves the efforts of 2-5 experts per sphere to establish authoritative evaluation dimensions and curate relevant observational datasets, 40 crowd-sourcing annotators to assist experts for annotations, and finally, OmniEarth-Bench is validated via hybrid expert-crowd workflows to reduce label ambiguity. Experiments on 9 state-of-the-art MLLMs reveal that even the most advanced models struggle with our benchmarks, where none of them reach 35\% accuracy. Especially, in some cross-spheres tasks, the performance of leading models like GPT-4o drops to 0.0\%. OmniEarth-Bench sets a new standard for geosystem-aware AI, advancing both scientific discovery and practical applications in environmental monitoring and disaster prediction. The dataset, source code, and trained models were released.

  • 17 authors
·
May 29, 2025