Daily Papers

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. But, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption for risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinates floods at locations that were not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and >30,000 labeled HD image triplets -- or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at 128x128 pixels -- for segmentation guided image-to-image translation in Earth observation. Code and data is available at https://github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public.

Characterizing the processes leading to deforestation is critical to the development and implementation of targeted forest conservation and management policies. In this work, we develop a deep learning model called ForestNet to classify the drivers of primary forest loss in Indonesia, a country with one of the highest deforestation rates in the world. Using satellite imagery, ForestNet identifies the direct drivers of deforestation in forest loss patches of any size. We curate a dataset of Landsat 8 satellite images of known forest loss events paired with driver annotations from expert interpreters. We use the dataset to train and validate the models and demonstrate that ForestNet substantially outperforms other standard driver classification approaches. In order to support future research on automated approaches to deforestation driver classification, the dataset curated in this study is publicly available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/projects/forestnet .

The increasing demand for commodities is leading to changes in land use worldwide. In the tropics, deforestation, which causes high carbon emissions and threatens biodiversity, is often linked to agricultural expansion. While the need for deforestation-free global supply chains is widely recognized, making progress in practice remains a challenge. Here, we propose an automated approach that aims to support conservation and sustainable land use planning decisions by mapping tropical landscapes at large scale and high spatial resolution following the High Carbon Stock (HCS) approach. A deep learning approach is developed that estimates canopy height for each 10 m Sentinel-2 pixel by learning from sparse GEDI LIDAR reference data, achieving an overall RMSE of 6.3 m. We show that these wall-to-wall maps of canopy top height are predictive for classifying HCS forests and degraded areas with an overall accuracy of 86 % and produce a first high carbon stock map for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Monitoring of reforestation is currently being considerably streamlined through the use of drones and image recognition algorithms, which have already proven to be effective on colour imagery. In addition to colour imagery, elevation data is often also available. The primary aim of this work was to improve the performance of the faster-RCNN object detection algorithm by integrating this height information, which showed itself to notably improve performance. Interestingly, the structure of the network played a key role, with direct addition of the height information as a fourth image channel showing no improvement, while integration after the backbone network and before the region proposal network led to marked improvements. This effect persisted with very long training regimes. Increasing the resolution of this height information also showed little effect.

Forest wildfires represent one of the catastrophic events that, over the last decades, caused huge environmental and humanitarian damages. In addition to a significant amount of carbon dioxide emission, they are a source of risk to society in both short-term (e.g., temporary city evacuation due to fire) and long-term (e.g., higher risks of landslides) cases. Consequently, the availability of tools to support local authorities in automatically identifying burned areas plays an important role in the continuous monitoring requirement to alleviate the aftereffects of such catastrophic events. The great availability of satellite acquisitions coupled with computer vision techniques represents an important step in developing such tools. This paper introduces a novel open dataset that tackles the burned area delineation problem, a binary segmentation problem applied to satellite imagery. The presented resource consists of pre- and post-fire Sentinel-2 L2A acquisitions of California forest fires that took place starting in 2015. Raster annotations were generated from the data released by California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Moreover, in conjunction with the dataset, we release three different baselines based on spectral indexes analyses, SegFormer, and U-Net models.

We approach autonomous drone-based reforestation with a collaborative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) setup. Agents can communicate as part of a dynamically changing network. We explore collaboration and communication on the back of a high-impact problem. Forests are the main resource to control rising CO2 conditions. Unfortunately, the global forest volume is decreasing at an unprecedented rate. Many areas are too large and hard to traverse to plant new trees. To efficiently cover as much area as possible, here we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) based communication mechanism that enables collaboration. Agents can share location information on areas needing reforestation, which increases viewed area and planted tree count. We compare our proposed communication mechanism with a multi-agent baseline without the ability to communicate. Results show how communication enables collaboration and increases collective performance, planting precision and the risk-taking propensity of individual agents.

Oil palm cultivation remains one of the leading causes of deforestation in Indonesia. To better track and address this challenge, detailed and reliable mapping is needed to support sustainability efforts and emerging regulatory frameworks. We present an open-access geospatial dataset of oil palm plantations and related land cover types in Indonesia, produced through expert labeling of high-resolution satellite imagery from 2020 to 2024. The dataset provides polygon-based, wall-to-wall annotations across a range of agro-ecological zones and includes a hierarchical typology that distinguishes oil palm planting stages as well as similar perennial crops. Quality was ensured through multi-interpreter consensus and field validation. The dataset was created using wall-to-wall digitization over large grids, making it suitable for training and benchmarking both conventional convolutional neural networks and newer geospatial foundation models. Released under a CC-BY license, it fills a key gap in training data for remote sensing and aims to improve the accuracy of land cover types mapping. By supporting transparent monitoring of oil palm expansion, the resource contributes to global deforestation reduction goals and follows FAIR data principles.

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

The increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery, together with advances in deep learning, creates new opportunities for enhancing forest monitoring workflows. Two central challenges in this domain are pixel-level change detection and semantic change interpretation, particularly for complex forest dynamics. While large language models (LLMs) are increasingly adopted for data exploration, their integration with vision-language models (VLMs) for remote sensing image change interpretation (RSICI) remains underexplored, especially beyond urban environments. We introduce Forest-Chat, an LLM-driven agent designed for integrated forest change analysis. The proposed framework enables natural language querying and supports multiple RSICI tasks, including change detection, change captioning, object counting, deforestation percentage estimation, and change reasoning. Forest-Chat builds upon a multi-level change interpretation (MCI) vision-language backbone with LLM-based orchestration, and incorporates zero-shot change detection via a foundation change detection model together with an interactive point-prompt interface to support fine-grained user guidance. To facilitate adaptation and evaluation in forest environments, we introduce the Forest-Change dataset, comprising bi-temporal satellite imagery, pixel-level change masks, and multi-granularity semantic change captions generated through a combination of human annotation and rule-based methods. Experimental results demonstrate that Forest-Chat achieves strong performance on Forest-Change and on LEVIR-MCI-Trees, a tree-focused subset of LEVIR-MCI, for joint change detection and captioning, highlighting the potential of interactive, LLM-driven RSICI systems to improve accessibility, interpretability, and analytical efficiency in forest change analysis.

Modern forest monitoring workflows increasingly benefit from the growing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery and advances in deep learning. Two persistent challenges in this context are accurate pixel-level change detection and meaningful semantic change captioning for complex forest dynamics. While large language models (LLMs) are being adapted for interactive data exploration, their integration with vision-language models (VLMs) for remote sensing image change interpretation (RSICI) remains underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce an LLM-driven agent for integrated forest change analysis that supports natural language querying across multiple RSICI tasks. The proposed system builds upon a multi-level change interpretation (MCI) vision-language backbone with LLM-based orchestration. To facilitate adaptation and evaluation in forest environments, we further introduce the Forest-Change dataset, which comprises bi-temporal satellite imagery, pixel-level change masks, and multi-granularity semantic change captions generated using a combination of human annotation and rule-based methods. Experimental results show that the proposed system achieves mIoU and BLEU-4 scores of 67.10% and 40.17% on the Forest-Change dataset, and 88.13% and 34.41% on LEVIR-MCI-Trees, a tree-focused subset of LEVIR-MCI benchmark for joint change detection and captioning. These results highlight the potential of interactive, LLM-driven RSICI systems to improve accessibility, interpretability, and efficiency of forest change analysis. All data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/JamesBrockUoB/ForestChat.

Forests worldwide are increasingly threatened by climate change and disturbances such as fire, pests, and pathogens, creating an urgent need for scalable monitoring of tree cover and tree mortality. Aerial imagery from drones and aircraft is a key data source for detailed and large-scale mapping of tree crowns and mortality. However, related progress is limited by the lack of globally representative, harmonized datasets for joint segmentation of tree cover and mortality. We introduce two novel, open, machine-learning-ready datasets to enable joint segmentation of tree cover and tree mortality from centimeter-scale aerial imagery for the first time at global scales. With DTE-aerial-train, we provide a training dataset comprising 385K image patches of size 1024x1024 pixels, with resolutions ranging from 2.5 to 20 cm. It includes multi-class expert-annotated and -audited pseudo-labels for tree cover and mortality. With DTE-aerial-bench, we provide a geographically balanced benchmark test set of 25 globally distributed orthoimages totaling 525 patches with high-quality expert annotations for both tree cover and mortality. Both the training and benchmark datasets span tropical, temperate, boreal, and dryland biomes and cover a wide range of forest structures and mortality patterns. Using the benchmark test set for evaluation, we establish strong reference baselines that improve mortality segmentation across all biomes and scales with significant gains in challenging regions, such as boreal forests, where the F1 score increases from 0.40 to 0.58 with around 45% relative improvement. All data, models, and code will be publicly released under permissive open-source licenses. An interactive visualization of the benchmark dataset is available at deadtrees.earth/releases/dte-aerial-bench.

Accurate monitoring of forest disturbances is essential for understanding carbon dynamics and land management, yet traditional approaches typically rely on pixel-wise analysis of satellite time-series, ignoring spatial context. We present a deep learning framework that maps 38 years (1984-2022) of forest disturbance across the contiguous United States by modeling temporal trajectories and spatial neighborhoods simultaneously. By leveraging a vision transformer architecture, our approach effectively filters noise from weak supervision signals to produce spatially coherent disturbance maps. We perform exhaustive evaluations across multiple satellites (Landsat, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2) and temporal windows (38 years and the more recent 6 years), validating performance against a novel, manually annotated validation dataset (n=300) and independent fire perimeter dataset (n=706). The results highlight the complexity of the task: while our spatio-temporal model demonstrates high precision (up to 98.2% for +-1 year detection on MTBS and up to 71.3% on the CONUS validation datasets, with F1-scores up to 75.8% and 47.3%, respectively) and effectively reduces spatial artifacts, it exhibits performance trade-offs across different disturbance regimes compared to pixel-wise baselines. Our method offers a promising foundation for consistent forest monitoring.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.