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README.md
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This Space runs **live, transparent, recomputed-from-scratch** signals for four domains:
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- Atmospheric (location-based)
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- Seismic (region-
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- Magnetic (global)
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- Solar (global)
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No hidden steps. The app
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## What changes with location (and what does not)
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### Location input
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- **Used for Atmospheric** (Open-Meteo hourly at the geocoded lat/lon).
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- **Not used for Solar** (GOES X-ray flux is global).
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- **Not used for Magnetic** (Kp index is global).
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- **Not used for Seismic in
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###
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## What this is / what this is not
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### This is
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- A live multi-domain
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### This is not
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- A guaranteed prediction engine
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- A precipitation model, radar nowcast, or full NWP weather model.
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- An earthquake time + epicenter predictor.
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- A CME arrival model or flare timing predictor.
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When live data is missing or too short, the domain is **DISABLED** instead of guessed.
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Use these to falsify the live status immediately:
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### Atmospheric (Open-Meteo)
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- Geocoding
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### Seismic (USGS)
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- USGS Earthquake API: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/
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### Magnetic (NOAA SWPC Kp)
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- SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/
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### Solar (NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray)
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- GOES X-ray 1-day JSON: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/primary/xrays-1-day.json
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- SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/
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## Open method (equations used in-app)
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Shared core:
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- Index = Ω_obs · τ_eff · α_R
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z definitions:
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- Atmospheric: z_atm = clamp( clamp(ΔT/10,0..2) + clamp(|ΔP|/12,0..1.5), 0..3 )
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- Seismic:
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- Magnetic:
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- Solar:
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This Space runs **live, transparent, recomputed-from-scratch** signals for four domains:
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- **Atmospheric** (location-based)
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- **Seismic** (region *or* local-radius, depending on your Seismic Mode)
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- **Magnetic** (global)
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- **Solar** (global)
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No hidden steps. The app surfaces the exact values it computes: **z**, **τ_eff**, **Ω_obs**, **α_R**, **index**, and the **decision rule** that fired.
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---
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## What changes with location (and what does not)
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### Location input
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- **Used for Atmospheric** (Open-Meteo hourly at the geocoded lat/lon).
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- **Used for Seismic only in “Local radius” mode** (USGS events within your chosen km radius).
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- **Not used for Solar** (GOES X-ray flux is global).
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- **Not used for Magnetic** (Kp index is global).
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- **Not used for Seismic in “Region” mode** (region selector controls the filter).
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If you type a different city and Solar/Magnetic stay unchanged: **expected**.
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---
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## Seismic modes (important)
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This Space supports two seismic views:
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### 1) Region mode
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Counts earthquakes in the selected region over the last **24 hours** with **M ≥ 2.5**.
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This is a **regional stress monitor**. It is not “near your city”.
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### 2) Local radius mode
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Counts earthquakes within your chosen **radius (km)** around your typed location over the last **24 hours** with **M ≥ 2.5**.
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This is still **not** a time/epicenter predictor — it’s an activity density monitor.
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---
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## What this is / what this is not
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### This is
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- A live multi-domain **regime detector** that turns raw public feeds into an explicit **RFT-style stress coordinate** **z**, maps it to **τ_eff**, then produces an **index**, then assigns labels using **fixed thresholds**.
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### This is not
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- A guaranteed “prediction engine”.
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- A precipitation model, radar nowcast, or full NWP weather model.
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- An earthquake time + epicenter predictor.
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- A CME arrival model or flare timing predictor.
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When live data is missing or too short, the domain is **DISABLED** instead of guessed.
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---
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## Forecast Receipts (durability + verification)
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Each run generates a downloadable **Forecast Receipt** (JSON) to make results inspectable over time.
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The receipt includes:
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- **Source URLs + request parameters + timestamps**
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- **sha256 hashes** of upstream payloads
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- **Computed intermediates** and the exact **rule_fired**
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- **Environment snapshot** (versions + constants)
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Optional durability mode:
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- Enable **“embed raw upstream payloads”** to include `raw_b64` inside the receipt for stronger offline verification.
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You can later upload the receipt under the **Verify Receipt** tab to:
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- Validate receipt structure
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- Verify embedded payload hashes (if present)
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- Recompute **z / τ_eff / index / label** and confirm they match the stored outputs
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---
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## Instant verification links (official sources)
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Use these to falsify the live status immediately:
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### Atmospheric (Open-Meteo)
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- Docs: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs
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- Geocoding: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/geocoding-api
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### Seismic (USGS)
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- USGS Earthquake API: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/
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### Magnetic (NOAA SWPC Kp)
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- Kp JSON feed: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/planetary_k_index_1m.json
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- SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/
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### Solar (NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray)
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- GOES X-ray 1-day JSON: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/primary/xrays-1-day.json
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- SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/
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---
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## Open method (equations used in-app)
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Shared core:
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- **τ_eff = 1.38 · ln(1 + z)**
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- **Ω_obs = 2π / T_earth** (T_earth = 365.2422 days)
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- **α_R = 1.02**
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- **Index = Ω_obs · τ_eff · α_R**
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z definitions:
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- Atmospheric: `z_atm = clamp( clamp(ΔT/10,0..2) + clamp(|ΔP|/12,0..1.5), 0..3 )`
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- Seismic: `z_seis = clamp( clamp(N/60,0..1.5) + clamp(max(0,Mmax-4)/2.5,0..1.5), 0..3 )`
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- Magnetic: `z_mag = clamp( (Kp_last/9) + (drift/2) + 2·|slope|, 0..3 )`
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- Solar: `z_solar = clamp( ln(F_mean/1e-8)/10, 0..3 )`
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Decision thresholds are printed per-domain in the agent output as `rule_fired`.
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## Practical note: “Why does my city show X seismic events?”
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If **Seismic Mode = Region**, the count is for the **selected region** (e.g., EMEA) over the last 24 hours at **M ≥ 2.5**.
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Switch to **Local radius** mode to make the count location-dependent.
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