question stringlengths 10 193 | answer stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|
Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024? | NO |
Will I be able to buy mana in the shop within 30 days? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Spider-man Beyond the Spiderverse releases? | NO |
Will Kamala Harris win the New York State Presidential Election by at least 20%? | NO |
Mill NASA confirm the discovery of aliens | NO |
Will Biden release any oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before the elections? | NO |
2024-10-29: Will AMD close above $111? | YES |
👶 Will Trump be photographed holding a baby before election day? | NO |
Will the winner of the 2024 election name their competitor in their victory speech? | NO |
Will Andy Jassy leave the role of Amazon’s CEO by the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024? | NO |
This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2024, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES. | YES |
Will Portland, Oregon see major, violent protests/riots during election week | NO |
Will a hurricane cause over $1 billion in damage in Florida by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September? | NO |
Will the tipping point state be decided by less than 2% in the 2024 POTUS election? | YES |
Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024? | NO |
[Subsidized 10K] Will all seven states (NC, GA, PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV) swing blue in November? | NO |
Will the 2024 US Presidential Election occur on schedule? | YES |
Iran military response before October? | NO |
Will Syrian rebels control Hama by the end of 2024? | YES |
If Trump gets enough votes to win the nomination and is also convicted, will he still be the candidate on election day? | YES |
Will Magnus Carlsen beat Fabiano Caruana in the Freestyle Chess Match? | YES |
SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24? | NO |
Присоединит ли Россия Молдову к концу 2024 года? | NO |
[Metaculus] Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | NO |
Will I (@Bayesian) stay in Masters in September (Season 17)? | NO |
Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st? | YES |
Will Milton be at least a catagory 4 by the end of 10/8 EST. | YES |
Will the AP call the 2024 election on election night? | NO |
At midnight Nov 5th, will NYT's Needle calling a higher probability of victory to a democrat presidential candidate? | NO |
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024? | YES |
Will Tim Kaine win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Virginia? | YES |
Will Donald Trump receive more than 46.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election? | YES |
Will Mitch McConnell still be the Republican leader in the Senate for the 119th Congress? | NO |
Will the EU be ruled by women? | NO |
Will the Democratic VP nominee and the Republican VP nominee shake hands at a VP debate prior to the election? | YES |
Electoral college result to be one of these 10 "likeliest" outcomes? | YES |
[Metaculus] Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | NO |
Will a hurricane cause over $1 billion in damage in Florida by the end of 2024? | YES |
Will the crew reach elbaf in 2024? | YES |
Will Whatsapp usernames be generally available before the end of 2024? | NO |
Daily coinflip | YES |
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be higher than 45% on election day? | NO |
Will this market get more than 1000 different traders? | NO |
Will the candidate who wins North Carolina win the 2024 POTUS election? | YES |
Will this disputed Polymarket about whether there will be a US government shutdown in 2024 resolve to "yes"? | YES |
Will Manicode reach top 5 on Product Hunt today? | NO |
Will Donald Trump Be The GOP Candidate for The 2024 Presidential Election | YES |
Will the Jake Paul - Mike Tyson fight end with Knockout? | NO |
Will Trump concede by end of November? | NO |
Will Ted Cruz be the next Republican elected President? | NO |
Will a Republican win Michigan in the 2024 POTUS election? | YES |
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | NO |
Will any of the 2024 TIME 100 most influential people be named on the 2024 TIME Person of The Year Shortlist? | YES |
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed in October 2024? | NO |
Will Bitcoin hit $85K in 2024? | YES |
Will Washington pass ballot initiative 2117? | NO |
Will ranked choice voting be relevant in the 2024 presidential election? | NO |
Will Twitch.tv ban asmongold for his islamophobic rant on stream from october 14 2024? | YES |
Will a Dutch politician hit another Dutch politician before Christmas? | NO |
Given the current state of politics, will the House of Rep flip from Republican to Democratic leadership Nov 5, 2024? | NO |
Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)? | NO |
Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position? | YES |
Will there be another perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball by the end of the 2024 season? | NO |
Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship? | YES |
Will Taylor Swift be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Michigan? | NO |
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights? | YES |
Would the general public narrative about why Sam Altman was fired from OpenAI be significantly different 1 year later? | NO |
Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024? | YES |
NFL Week 4 (Sep 29): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings? | NO |
Will the Jimmy Apples AGI tweet stand a test of time | NO |
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona? | NO |
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2024 G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro? | NO |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Pennsylvania? | NO |
Will Joe Biden be re-elected in 2024? | NO |
Will the Libertarian Party get over 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election? | NO |
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Florida? | NO |
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | NO |
Will Bernie Sanders win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Vermont? | YES |
Will Trump’s Twitter DMs and draft tweets prove to be damning evidence against him in his January 6 trial? | NO |
NFL Week 4 (Sep 30): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Tennessee Titans? | NO |
Will Yahya Sinwar die of pneumonia in 2024? | NO |
Will I run more than 500 km in 2024? | YES |
Will this market jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 reach 100M of trading volume ? | NO |
Will Bitcoin reach $90K by the end of 2024? | YES |
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Tennessee Titans (home) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (away)? | NO |
Will Jimmy Carter die before Manifold bans markets on unrelated events? | YES |
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024? | NO |
Will Kenan Thompson leave the cast of SNL before the first episode of season 50? | NO |
Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2024? | NO |
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Nov 29? | NO |
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in putting “abolishing ranked choice voting” on the ballot in the 2024 election? | YES |
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2025? | NO |
Asmon and the boys back on Hardcore in Oct? | NO |
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $95,000 before 2025? | YES |
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race? | NO |
NFL Week 6 (Oct 14): Will the New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills? | NO |
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