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Will Scott Alexander endorse Ron DeSantis (for president) in 2024?
NO
Will I be able to buy mana in the shop within 30 days?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Spider-man Beyond the Spiderverse releases?
NO
Will Kamala Harris win the New York State Presidential Election by at least 20%?
NO
Mill NASA confirm the discovery of aliens
NO
Will Biden release any oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before the elections?
NO
2024-10-29: Will AMD close above $111?
YES
👶 Will Trump be photographed holding a baby before election day?
NO
Will the winner of the 2024 election name their competitor in their victory speech?
NO
Will Andy Jassy leave the role of Amazon’s CEO by the end of 2024?
NO
Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024?
NO
This market will resolve YES if I'm still active on Manifold by the end of 2024, and NO otherwise. I will bet only YES.
YES
Will Portland, Oregon see major, violent protests/riots during election week
NO
Will a hurricane cause over $1 billion in damage in Florida by the end of 2024?
YES
Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September?
NO
Will the tipping point state be decided by less than 2% in the 2024 POTUS election?
YES
Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024?
NO
[Subsidized 10K] Will all seven states (NC, GA, PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV) swing blue in November?
NO
Will the 2024 US Presidential Election occur on schedule?
YES
Iran military response before October?
NO
Will Syrian rebels control Hama by the end of 2024?
YES
If Trump gets enough votes to win the nomination and is also convicted, will he still be the candidate on election day?
YES
Will Magnus Carlsen beat Fabiano Caruana in the Freestyle Chess Match?
YES
SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?
NO
Присоединит ли Россия Молдову к концу 2024 года?
NO
[Metaculus] Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?
NO
Will I (@Bayesian) stay in Masters in September (Season 17)?
NO
Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st?
YES
Will Milton be at least a catagory 4 by the end of 10/8 EST.
YES
Will the AP call the 2024 election on election night?
NO
At midnight Nov 5th, will NYT's Needle calling a higher probability of victory to a democrat presidential candidate?
NO
Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?
YES
Will Tim Kaine win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Virginia?
YES
Will Donald Trump receive more than 46.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?
YES
Will Mitch McConnell still be the Republican leader in the Senate for the 119th Congress?
NO
Will the EU be ruled by women?
NO
Will the Democratic VP nominee and the Republican VP nominee shake hands at a VP debate prior to the election?
YES
Electoral college result to be one of these 10 "likeliest" outcomes?
YES
[Metaculus] Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?
NO
Will a hurricane cause over $1 billion in damage in Florida by the end of 2024?
YES
Will the crew reach elbaf in 2024?
YES
Will Whatsapp usernames be generally available before the end of 2024?
NO
Daily coinflip
YES
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be higher than 45% on election day?
NO
Will this market get more than 1000 different traders?
NO
Will the candidate who wins North Carolina win the 2024 POTUS election?
YES
Will this disputed Polymarket about whether there will be a US government shutdown in 2024 resolve to "yes"?
YES
Will Manicode reach top 5 on Product Hunt today?
NO
Will Donald Trump Be The GOP Candidate for The 2024 Presidential Election
YES
Will the Jake Paul - Mike Tyson fight end with Knockout?
NO
Will Trump concede by end of November?
NO
Will Ted Cruz be the next Republican elected President?
NO
Will a Republican win Michigan in the 2024 POTUS election?
YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win more than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
NO
Will any of the 2024 TIME 100 most influential people be named on the 2024 TIME Person of The Year Shortlist?
YES
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed in October 2024?
NO
Will Bitcoin hit $85K in 2024?
YES
Will Washington pass ballot initiative 2117?
NO
Will ranked choice voting be relevant in the 2024 presidential election?
NO
Will Twitch.tv ban asmongold for his islamophobic rant on stream from october 14 2024?
YES
Will a Dutch politician hit another Dutch politician before Christmas?
NO
Given the current state of politics, will the House of Rep flip from Republican to Democratic leadership Nov 5, 2024?
NO
Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)?
NO
Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position?
YES
Will there be another perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball by the end of the 2024 season?
NO
Will there be at least 4 decisive classical games in the 2024 World Chess Championship?
YES
Will Taylor Swift be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?
NO
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Michigan?
NO
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?
YES
Would the general public narrative about why Sam Altman was fired from OpenAI be significantly different 1 year later?
NO
Will there be a new major LLM released by OpenAI or Anthropic by the end of 2024?
YES
NFL Week 4 (Sep 29): Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings?
NO
Will the Jimmy Apples AGI tweet stand a test of time
NO
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Arizona?
NO
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
NO
Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2024 G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro?
NO
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Pennsylvania?
NO
Will Joe Biden be re-elected in 2024?
NO
Will the Libertarian Party get over 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election?
NO
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Florida?
NO
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
NO
Will Bernie Sanders win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Vermont?
YES
Will Trump’s Twitter DMs and draft tweets prove to be damning evidence against him in his January 6 trial?
NO
NFL Week 4 (Sep 30): Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Tennessee Titans?
NO
Will Yahya Sinwar die of pneumonia in 2024?
NO
Will I run more than 500 km in 2024?
YES
Will this market jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 reach 100M of trading volume ?
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90K by the end of 2024?
YES
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Tennessee Titans (home) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (away)?
NO
Will Jimmy Carter die before Manifold bans markets on unrelated events?
YES
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
NO
Will Kenan Thompson leave the cast of SNL before the first episode of season 50?
NO
Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2024?
NO
Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before Nov 29?
NO
Will Republicans in Alaska succeed in putting “abolishing ranked choice voting” on the ballot in the 2024 election?
YES
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2025?
NO
Asmon and the boys back on Hardcore in Oct?
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $95,000 before 2025?
YES
Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
NO
NFL Week 6 (Oct 14): Will the New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills?
NO