sample_id stringlengths 66 66 | article_id stringlengths 64 64 | sample_index int64 0 0 | date stringdate 2026-06-01 00:00:00 2026-06-29 00:00:00 | decision_date stringdate 2000-01-01 00:00:00 2026-06-29 00:00:00 | title stringlengths 16 120 | source stringclasses 29
values | source_url stringlengths 44 202 | scenario stringlengths 111 828 | action stringlengths 26 502 | effect_question stringlengths 112 567 | effect_description stringlengths 60 1.24k | generator_reasoning stringlengths 364 11.5k ⌀ | generator_output stringlengths 561 4.91k | luna_verifier_reasoning stringlengths 404 8.66k ⌀ | luna_verifier_output stringlengths 1.48k 2.67k | deepseek_verifier_reasoning stringlengths 2.04k 93.6k | deepseek_verifier_output stringlengths 1.37k 55.8k | event_probability_questions listlengths 1 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62a732e356d29391edf10b0b05a8a335023204772dd09de42e7cc1fe51ee82ac:0 | 62a732e356d29391edf10b0b05a8a335023204772dd09de42e7cc1fe51ee82ac | 0 | 2026-06-15 | 2025-09-01 | Trump Makes Unsupported Claims About Drug Flows | www.factcheck.org | https://www.factcheck.org/2026/06/trump-makes-unsupported-claims-about-drug-flows/ | In September 2025, amid efforts to stop illegal drugs from reaching the United States by sea, the U.S. military identified boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it claimed were bringing drugs to the country. The government was considering how to disrupt this maritime trafficking. | The U.S. military began striking boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it claimed were bringing drugs to the United States. | If the U.S. military begins striking boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it claims are bringing drugs to the United States, what will happen to cocaine’s availability in the United States, and how will drug smugglers change their transportation methods or routes? | Citing epidemiologists, addiction scientists, and public-health experts, the New York Times reported that cocaine remained widely available in the United States. Drug smugglers had seemingly adjusted to the boat strikes by transporting cocaine in large shipping containers or using land routes through Central America. | **Analyzing military action context**
I need to clarify the action and context around U.S. military strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that are supposedly bringing drugs to the U.S. I want to assess the potential impact on cocaine availability and smugglers' transportation methods. This scenario m... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In September 2025, amid efforts to stop illegal drugs from reaching the United States by sea, the U.S. military identified boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it claimed were bringing drugs to the country. The government was considering how to disrupt this maritime trafficking.","... | **Analyzing strike effects on availability**
I’m considering the availability of cocaine mentioned in the context of strikes. The document states it "remained widely available," and I wonder if that means the strikes didn’t reduce availability. It sounds like smugglers adjusted their methods. The New York Times report... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description is separate from the military action: it states that cocaine remained widely available and that smugglers responded to the boat strikes by shifting to shipping containers and land routes. The document explicitly links the transportation cha... | We need answer JSON only. Need evaluate criteria. Need reason carefully.
We need inspect sample.
Document: FactCheck article June 15 2026. It discusses Trump claims. The sample:
decision_date: 2025-09-01. effect_question: "If the U.S. military begins striking boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it clai... | {"criteria": [{"criterion": 1, "satisfied": 1, "explanation": "The action is the U.S. military beginning to strike boats; the effect_description describes subsequent consequences—cocaine remaining widely available and smugglers shifting to containers/land routes—explicitly linked to the boat strikes in the document. It... | [
"After the U.S. military begins the boat strikes, will cocaine remain widely available in the United States rather than becoming broadly scarce?",
"After the boat strikes begin, will drug smugglers transport cocaine in large shipping containers as an alternative to using the targeted boats?",
"After the boat st... |
70ed598a57469d0bdd9df8b67f02791d78f253d5976aa6e172bbb66ad25798b3:0 | 70ed598a57469d0bdd9df8b67f02791d78f253d5976aa6e172bbb66ad25798b3 | 0 | 2026-06-17 | 2018-01-01 | Precise Gene Editing in Early Human Embryos Reignites the ‘Designer Baby’ Debate | singularityhub.com | https://singularityhub.com/2026/06/17/precise-gene-editing-in-early-human-embryos-reignites-the-designer-baby-debate/ | In 2018, human-embryo gene editing was the subject of international scientific calls for a temporary ban and was illegal in several countries. CRISPR-Cas9 was also known to risk unintended mutations, large DNA deletions, and edits at the wrong genomic locations. Chinese scientist He Jiankui nevertheless pursued embryo ... | He Jiankui used CRISPR-Cas9 to edit human embryos and announced the birth of gene-edited babies, claiming that the edits were intended to protect them against HIV infection. | If a scientist uses CRISPR-Cas9 to edit human embryos with the stated aim of protecting the resulting children against HIV infection and then announces the birth of gene-edited babies, what social reaction and legal consequence will follow? | The experiment triggered global outrage. He Jiankui was subsequently imprisoned for three years as a result of the experiment. | **Estimating decision dates**
I’m considering if the decision date can be aligned with the article’s date. It seems more accurate to put the decision date around 2026-06-17 rather than the speculative 2026-01-01. There was a significant action in 2018 around gene-edited babies, leading to global outrage. The announcem... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In 2018, human-embryo gene editing was the subject of international scientific calls for a temporary ban and was illegal in several countries. CRISPR-Cas9 was also known to risk unintended mutations, large DNA deletions, and edits at the wrong genomic locations. Chinese scientist He Jiankui nev... | **Formulating criteria and actions**
I'm considering the counterfactual conditional about a scientist using CRISPR and then announcing the birth of embryos. This situation has occurred historically, so I need to think about the effects. Perhaps the announcement could happen quickly, while the action of using CRISPR em... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description states consequences of the embryo-editing experiment—global outrage and imprisonment—rather than merely restating that the experiment was conducted. The document explicitly links the announcement to global outrage and the experiment to the ... | We need to evaluate the candidate sample against the six criteria. Let's go through each.
**Criterion 1: Causal action effect separation**
The action is using CRISPR-Cas9 to edit human embryos for HIV protection, and then announcing the birth. The effect_description says: "The experiment triggered global outrage. He J... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description clearly distinguishes the consequences (global outrage and imprisonment) from the action itself (using CRISPR and announcing). The document explicitly attributes these outcomes to the experiment, satisfying ... | [
"Will the announcement of the gene-edited babies trigger global outrage over the experiment?",
"Will the scientist subsequently be imprisoned for three years as a legal consequence of the experiment?"
] |
71c8e9bcee4d17cc85b6f475a491b22fdf4d8224c41a4dbd4f49963fe504a1f4:0 | 71c8e9bcee4d17cc85b6f475a491b22fdf4d8224c41a4dbd4f49963fe504a1f4 | 0 | 2026-06-07 | 2021-01-01 | Deteriorating Japan castles face high costs, debates over renovation | www.straitstimes.com | https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/deteriorating-japan-castles-face-high-costs-debates-over-renovation | Okayama, a city in western Japan with a reconstructed concrete castle keep, had to choose how to address the keep’s aging condition and the need for repairs. Rather than reconstructing the castle in wood, the city chose to renovate the existing concrete keep, a decision made before the major repair work carried out fro... | Okayama City decided to renovate its existing concrete castle keep instead of reconstructing it as a wooden structure. | If Okayama City chooses to renovate its existing concrete castle keep rather than reconstruct it as a wooden structure, how will the renovation affect visitor numbers, and what visitor-related improvements will result? | After the renovation and major repair work, which included improved earthquake resistance, better facilities for disabled and elderly visitors, immersive exhibits, and video guidance, visitor numbers at Okayama Castle increased by about 100,000. | **Analyzing renovation decisions**
I need to consider candidates for decision dates 0-3. The document indicates that Okayama opted for renovations and major repairs between 2021 and 2022, which resulted in a visitor increase of 100k.
I wonder if the earliest decision date could be around January 1, 2021, even if we d... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"Okayama, a city in western Japan with a reconstructed concrete castle keep, had to choose how to address the keep’s aging condition and the need for repairs. Rather than reconstructing the castle in wood, the city chose to renovate the existing concrete keep, a decision made before the major re... | **Assessing renovation criteria**
I need to examine the details carefully, with a strict focus on the nuances of JSON. For example, if Okayama chose to renovate instead of reconstruct, this decision was made before January 1, 2021. The source states that they opted for renovation and saw an increase in visitors afterw... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The description includes a consequential outcome—visitor numbers increased by about 100,000 after the renovation—and identifies the resulting visitor-oriented changes, such as improved accessibility, immersive exhibits, and video guidance. Although some listed im... | We need to evaluate the sample against six criteria. Let's go through each.
The sample: decision_date 2021-01-01. The document mentions Okayama opted for renovation of concrete keep and conducted major repair work between 2021 and 2022, and saw increase in visitor numbers of about 100,000. The effect_question asks: "I... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description focuses on the increase in visitor numbers, which is a clear consequence of the renovation decision. The listed improvements are part of the renovation itself but are secondary; the primary effect is the vis... | [
"What is the probability that, after the renovation is completed, Okayama Castle’s visitor count will be between 75,000 and 125,000 higher than before the renovation?",
"What is the probability that the renovation will improve the castle’s earthquake resistance?",
"What is the probability that the renovated cas... |
eb89ec69d395db372e76b9324ce8d18b29d649f6e97ec2bed5996dbc2dd60fdb:0 | eb89ec69d395db372e76b9324ce8d18b29d649f6e97ec2bed5996dbc2dd60fdb | 0 | 2026-06-21 | 2026-01-01 | Mersin sahilinde EDS dönemi: 3 bin sürücüye ceza | www.mersintime.com | https://www.mersintime.com/mersin-sahilinde-eds-donemi-3-bin-surucuye-ceza | In Mersin, motorized vehicles were prohibited from using the pedestrian and bicycle paths along the coastal strip between Babil Junction and Mersin Port because fast-moving motorcycles and other vehicles posed risks to pedestrians and cyclists. The municipality had installed warning signs and issued public notices, and... | Mersin Metropolitan Municipality activated an Electronic Enforcement System on 2026-01-01, using cameras monitored around the clock from a central facility to detect motorized vehicles entering the pedestrian and bicycle paths and impose administrative fines of 3,705 Turkish lira on violators. | What will be the effects of Mersin Metropolitan Municipality’s plan to use continuously monitored cameras along the coastal pedestrian and bicycle paths to detect motorized vehicles and fine violators 3,705 Turkish lira, particularly on the number of violations and drivers’ behavior? | After the system was implemented, approximately 3,000 motorized-vehicle drivers were issued administrative penalties for using the pedestrian and bicycle paths. People using the coast reported that the number of motorized vehicles on the bicycle path decreased, that the system was deterrent, and that people were behavi... | **Exploring enforcement effects**
In this scenario, the municipality has decided to prohibit motor vehicles and implemented an enforcement system with cameras along the coast. The outcome has seen about 3,000 drivers penalized, leading to fewer vehicles on bike paths. I need to focus on future effects and specify ques... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In Mersin, motorized vehicles were prohibited from using the pedestrian and bicycle paths along the coastal strip between Babil Junction and Mersin Port because fast-moving motorcycles and other vehicles posed risks to pedestrians and cyclists. The municipality had installed warning signs and i... | **Assessing enforcement actions**
I need to be cautious about temporal leakage regarding the activation date being January 1, and the question pertains to the effects of using continuously monitored cameras. Documentation was published in June, and it appears that the system was implemented on January 1.
I’m evaluat... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description reports consequences of the enforcement system rather than merely restating its installation: approximately 3,000 drivers were penalized, motorized vehicles on the bicycle path reportedly decreased, and users reportedly behaved more careful... | We need to evaluate the candidate sample against the six criteria. Let's go one by one.
**Criterion 1: Causal action effect separation**
The effect_description must describe consequences of the action, not just implementation details or overlapping with the action itself. The effects must be causally attributed to t... | {"criteria": [{"criterion": 1, "satisfied": 1, "explanation": "The effect_description clearly separates the action (camera-based enforcement with fines) from its consequences: 3,000 penalties issued and changes in driver behavior. These are causally attributed to the system in the document, not just unrelated events."}... | [
"After implementation, will between 2,500 and 3,500 motorized-vehicle drivers receive administrative penalties for using the pedestrian and bicycle paths?",
"After implementation, will people using the coast report that the number of motorized vehicles on the bicycle path has decreased?",
"After implementation,... |
8311082e9dfdcad89ed22fc9e587f744d3676ed9cc5597f05bcec20269eae8b0:0 | 8311082e9dfdcad89ed22fc9e587f744d3676ed9cc5597f05bcec20269eae8b0 | 0 | 2026-06-04 | 2026-05-27 | North Carolina Democrats reject Gaza genocide resolution | www.jpost.com | https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-898321 | In North Carolina, the Democratic Party’s State Executive Committee was preparing to take a final vote on the “Genocide Accountability Resolution,” which had advanced through the party’s precinct, county, and district bodies. The proposed resolution would have added language to the state party platform calling for the ... | The North Carolina Democratic Party’s Jewish Caucus campaigned against the Genocide Accountability Resolution and urged the State Executive Committee to reject it before the committee’s final vote. | What effect will the North Carolina Democratic Party Jewish Caucus’s campaign against the proposed Genocide Accountability Resolution have on the State Executive Committee’s final vote, the inclusion of the proposed genocide-related language in the state party platform, and Jewish Democrats’ sense of belonging in the p... | At the State Executive Committee’s final vote on the following Saturday, the resolution was defeated by a vote of 163-130, so the proposed genocide-related language was not added to the North Carolina Democratic Party platform. Amy DeLoach, the Jewish Caucus’s first vice chair, described the result as a sign that Jewis... | **Analyzing decision dates**
The article mentions a letter dated May 27 and suggests that a vote could happen on May 30, 2026, rather than May 31. That implies the decision about the campaign could have been made on May 27. The vote outcome seems significant as it reports the measure being struck down. Still, it's ess... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In North Carolina, the Democratic Party’s State Executive Committee was preparing to take a final vote on the “Genocide Accountability Resolution,” which had advanced through the party’s precinct, county, and district bodies. The proposed resolution would have added language to the state party ... | **Evaluating campaign effects**
I need to evaluate the details here closely. There’s a strict need for JSON format regarding the date May 27 and its relation to the ongoing campaign. It looks like the campaign's effect likely happened around May 30, with a publication on June 4. The question about the campaign's effec... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description reports consequences distinct from the campaign itself: the resolution was defeated, the proposed platform language was not added, and Jewish Democrats reported a stronger sense of belonging. The document explicitly links the defeat to the ... | We need to evaluate the sample against the criteria. Let's go through each criterion.
1. **Causal action effect separation**: The effect_description describes consequences of the action (the campaign against the resolution) - the resolution was defeated, language not added, and Jewish Democrats felt a sense of belongi... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description describes consequences of the campaign: the resolution was defeated, the language was not added, and Jewish Democrats felt a sense of belonging. These are outcomes causally linked to the campaign, as the doc... | [
"At the North Carolina Democratic Party State Executive Committee’s final vote on May 30, 2026, will the proposed Genocide Accountability Resolution be defeated rather than adopted?",
"In the North Carolina Democratic Party platform adopted after the final vote, will the proposed genocide-related language be abse... |
773fb125eba93a2e77d425c20f3ca1c9a57591bb223a4fd3671b423ce0656a33:0 | 773fb125eba93a2e77d425c20f3ca1c9a57591bb223a4fd3671b423ce0656a33 | 0 | 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-10 | North Korea Protests Seoul | www.themoscowtimes.com | https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/13/north-korea-protests-seoul-eu-rebuke-of-russia-ties-a93008 | During South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's visit to Brussels, South Korea and the European Union were addressing Pyongyang's military cooperation with Moscow during Russia's war in Ukraine and decided whether to issue a joint condemnation. | On 2026-06-10, South Korea and the European Union adopted a joint statement condemning North Korea's military ties with Russia and describing the cooperation as illegal support that enables Russia to sustain its war against Ukraine. | After South Korea and the European Union adopt a joint statement during President Lee Jae Myung's visit to Brussels condemning North Korea's military cooperation with Russia during the war in Ukraine, what diplomatic response will North Korea make, including how it will characterize the cooperation, the statement, and ... | North Korea's foreign ministry denounced the joint statement. It characterized cooperation with Russia as an exercise of North Korea's sovereign rights, called the statement a clear infringement on North Korea's sovereignty and a grave hostile act, and reiterated that South Korea was North Korea's primary enemy state. ... | **Assessing diplomatic actions**
I need to evaluate a document regarding the action taken by South Korea and the EU to condemn North Korea's military ties with Russia during a visit by President Lee. The outcome of this action is North Korea denouncing the statement as hostile and reaffirming South Korea as its primar... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"During South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's visit to Brussels, South Korea and the European Union were addressing Pyongyang's military cooperation with Moscow during Russia's war in Ukraine and decided whether to issue a joint condemnation.","action":"On 2026-06-10, South Korea and the Europe... | null | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description reports North Korea's diplomatic response to the joint statement, rather than restating the action itself. The document explicitly presents the ministry's statement as a response to the South Korea-EU statement."},{"criterion":2,"satisfied"... | We need to evaluate the candidate sample against the six criteria. Let's go through each.
**Criterion 1: Causal action effect separation**
The action is the adoption of the joint statement by South Korea and the EU. The effect_description describes North Korea's response: denouncing the statement, characterizing coope... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description clearly describes consequences of the action (adoption of the joint statement) – North Korea's diplomatic response – rather than implementation details of the action itself. The response is causally attribut... | [
"In its official response to the joint statement, will North Korea’s Foreign Ministry publicly denounce the statement?",
"Will North Korea’s Foreign Ministry characterize its military cooperation with Russia as an exercise of North Korea’s sovereign rights?",
"Will North Korea’s Foreign Ministry describe the jo... |
702022ea11bb24a6eee7cd0a30e81458240ac11620519ee5b0f89c9e3b67dad8:0 | 702022ea11bb24a6eee7cd0a30e81458240ac11620519ee5b0f89c9e3b67dad8 | 0 | 2026-06-02 | 2026-05-26 | Texas Senate race shows the rot runs deeper than Trump | www.salon.com | https://www.salon.com/2026/06/02/texas-senate-race-shows-the-rot-runs-deeper-than-trump/ | During the 2026 Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton was challenging powerful incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Paxton had a widely documented record of crimes, corruption, and scandals, while President Donald Trump was his political ally and had influence with Republican p... | President Donald Trump gave Ken Paxton an enthusiastic endorsement in the Texas Republican Senate primary. | How will President Donald Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton affect the 2026 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, in which Paxton is challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn? | The endorsement helped Paxton across the finish line: he defeated John Cornyn and won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate on May 26, 2026. | **Evaluating decision timelines**
The user wants the best estimate for when a decision was made regarding a document. Could it be inferred as May 26, 2026? But then, considering the election date, it would need to be before that — which might not be a reasonable estimate. So, skipping that might be a good idea. Also, ... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"During the 2026 Republican primary for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton was challenging powerful incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Paxton had a widely documented record of crimes, corruption, and scandals, while President Donald Trump was his political ally and had in... | null | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description is distinct from the endorsement itself: it states that Paxton won the Republican nomination by defeating Cornyn. The document explicitly attributes assistance in that victory to Trump's endorsement, saying Paxton was helped across the fini... | We need to evaluate the sample against the six criteria. Let's analyze each.
**Criterion 1: Causal action effect separation**
The action is Trump's endorsement. The effect_description says "The endorsement helped Paxton across the finish line: he defeated John Cornyn and won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Se... | {"criteria": [{"criterion": 1, "satisfied": 1, "explanation": "The effect_description clearly separates the action (Trump's endorsement) from its consequence (Paxton winning the primary). It states the endorsement helped Paxton across the finish line, which is a causal claim directly supported by the document. The effe... | [
"Will Ken Paxton win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas in the 2026 Republican primary, defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn?"
] |
22b4530dc065afea512831f4f1f79700fcba616d4b559dd2ac2bf1c68d68731e:0 | 22b4530dc065afea512831f4f1f79700fcba616d4b559dd2ac2bf1c68d68731e | 0 | 2026-06-17 | 2010-01-21 | Billionaires Know Just How They Want Supreme Court Justices to Rule-and Are Spending Big to Tell Them | www.motherjones.com | https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/06/supreme-court-amicus-briefs-investigation/ | A case before the U.S. Supreme Court asked whether corporations could spend money to influence elections through outside groups rather than donating directly to a political party or candidate. The justices had to decide whether to retain limits on that type of corporate spending. | In Citizens United v. FEC, the Supreme Court lifted limits on corporations’ spending to influence elections, while retaining the condition that corporations not donate directly to a political party or candidate. | What effects will the Supreme Court’s decision to remove limits on corporations’ independent election spending, while prohibiting direct donations to parties or candidates, have on the scale of outside-group spending, the use of nonprofits to obscure donors, and the political influence of wealthy contributors? | The ruling ushered in the modern era of billion-dollar elections financed through super PACs and ostensibly independent nonprofits, allowing corporations and billionaires to provide unlimited money to outside groups. Donors increasingly routed money through nonprofits that concealed their identities, making political s... | **Considering dinner's impact**
I’m estimating the date to be December 1, 2004, and I’m thinking about Leo's dinner where they aimed to ensure Bush could fill vacancies. This seems to have led to the creation of groups that significantly boosted confirmations. It raises an evaluation question: what were the results of... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"A case before the U.S. Supreme Court asked whether corporations could spend money to influence elections through outside groups rather than donating directly to a political party or candidate. The justices had to decide whether to retain limits on that type of corporate spending.","action":"In ... | **Evaluating criteria and effects**
I'm considering the potential criterion regarding action-effect separation. The action involves "removing limits" and prohibiting direct donations, while the effects include unlimited external funding, anonymous donations, and potential increases in donation percentages. It's a good... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect_description goes beyond restating the Court’s action. It identifies consequential outcomes attributed to the ruling: increased outside-group spending, donor concealment through nonprofits, greater billionaire participation, and increased donor influenc... | We need to evaluate the sample against each criterion. The sample is about the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision (implied) and its effects. Let's check each:
1. Causal action effect separation: The effect_description describes consequences (unlimited spending, anonymity, influence) that are causally attributed ... | {"criteria": [{"criterion": 1, "satisfied": 1, "explanation": "The effect_description clearly distinguishes the action (Supreme Court ruling lifting spending limits) from its causal consequences (unlimited outside-group spending, donor anonymity, increased billionaire influence). The effects are attributed to the rulin... | [
"By 2024, will at least one U.S. federal election cycle involve at least $1 billion in total spending financed in part through super PACs and ostensibly independent nonprofits?",
"By 2024, will political donors route funds through ostensibly independent nonprofits that do not publicly disclose the donors’ identit... |
b88fe973d0ae29782d96433ae34f42bc7dd63b082b4a46b701cd8035c1ab678d:0 | b88fe973d0ae29782d96433ae34f42bc7dd63b082b4a46b701cd8035c1ab678d | 0 | 2026-06-11 | 2026-02-28 | Iran war anxiety sends global container shipping rates soaring | www.koreaherald.com | https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10769435 | In late February 2026, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump was deciding whether to initiate military action against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route that normally carries almost 20% of the world's oil supply, was central to the decision's potential energy and transportation conseque... | The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump initiated a war against Iran through attacks, in a conflict that also involved Israeli attacks on Iran. | If the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump were to initiate a war against Iran in late February 2026, with the conflict involving attacks by the United States and Israel, what effects would follow over the next roughly 100 days on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil reserves, marine bunker-f... | Over the following more than 100 days, hostilities continued with no immediate end in sight and choked the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil inventories and emergency reserves rapidly depleted. The cost of very-low-sulfur bunker fuel rose 55% across 20 major fueling hubs, reaching $845, and the confl... | **Analyzing shipping cost dynamics**
I’m looking at how increased demand has affected shipping costs. Importers are frontloading shipments, likely due to concerns about rising costs, leading to container rates doubling. The document points to a rise in demand and mentions vehicle part suppliers rushing to gather raw m... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In late February 2026, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump was deciding whether to initiate military action against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route that normally carries almost 20% of the world's oil supply, was central to the decision's potential energy an... | **Assessing criteria for analysis**
I'm looking at how to assess each criterion strictly using JSON and understanding any parsing issues. First, I need to separate actions from their effects, particularly regarding the initiation of war and subsequent disruptions. I’m satisfied that the second criterion involves reaso... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect_description goes beyond restating the decision to initiate the war. It identifies downstream consequences attributed in the document to the conflict, including disrupted Hormuz oil flows, depleted reserves, higher bunker-fuel prices, increased carrier ... | We need to evaluate the sample against the criteria. Let's go through each.
1. Causal action effect separation: The action is "initiate a war against Iran in late February 2026". The effect_description lists consequences: hostilities, oil flow choked, reserves depleted, bunker fuel prices up, carrier costs, shipping r... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description clearly lists consequences of the war (choked oil flows, depleted reserves, higher bunker fuel prices, increased carrier costs, and rising shipping rates) that are causally attributed to the action in the do... | [
"Under this scenario, will hostilities between the United States and Israel and Iran still be ongoing more than 100 days after the war begins?",
"During the period extending beyond 100 days after the conflict begins, will average daily oil throughput through the Strait of Hormuz be below its average during the 30... |
5351a8f6a179c6a1451a5a3a3751f9ff584236a2cbcaa6c35a7d9dc08632db16:0 | 5351a8f6a179c6a1451a5a3a3751f9ff584236a2cbcaa6c35a7d9dc08632db16 | 0 | 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-03 | Kuwait arrests one for filming drone interception, causing traffic accident | www.khaleejtimes.com | https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/gulf/kuwait-arrests-one-filming-drone-interception | During a period of Iranian missile attacks and active Kuwaiti air-defence operations, a social-media user was driving while observing the defence activity and had footage of the systems intercepting incoming missiles. Kuwait was experiencing exceptional security conditions, including an attack on an airport passenger t... | The social-media user decided to use a mobile phone to film the air-defence operations while driving and to publish the resulting clips online. | What will happen after a social-media user films Kuwaiti air-defence systems intercepting incoming Iranian missiles while driving and publishes the footage online during the ongoing security crisis, particularly regarding traffic and law-enforcement consequences? | While filming, the user caused a traffic accident. After authorities monitored the published social-media content, they arrested him. Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior stated that filming or circulating material related to military sites, security installations, or field operations violated security instructions, and that ... | **Analyzing publishing consequences**
I'm considering the implications of publishing military or security content during wartime. The user may need to think about the consequences. It seems like a snap judgment to act on a social media user’s impulse. The decision to film and share clips may be intentional. The potent... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"During a period of Iranian missile attacks and active Kuwaiti air-defence operations, a social-media user was driving while observing the defence activity and had footage of the systems intercepting incoming missiles. Kuwait was experiencing exceptional security conditions, including an attack ... | **Assessing legal actions**
I need to carefully consider the legal implications here. The first criterion involves the consequences of filming while driving and the potential overlap with legal violations. The scenario describes how filming may have caused an accident, leading to arrest due to the published content be... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect_description identifies consequences caused by the conduct: filming while driving caused a traffic accident, and publishing the footage led authorities monitoring the content to arrest the user. These are distinct from merely filming or publishing the m... | We need to evaluate the sample against the criteria. The document describes a real event: a person filmed and published clips of air defense intercepting missiles, caused a traffic accident while filming, was arrested, and the ministry warned about legal actions. The candidate sample frames it as a prediction question:... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description clearly separates the action (filming and publishing) from its consequences: causing a traffic accident while filming, being arrested after publishing, and facing legal actions per the ministry's statements.... | [
"Will the social-media user cause a traffic accident while filming the interception footage from a moving vehicle?",
"After the footage is published online, will Kuwaiti authorities arrest the user who filmed it?",
"Will Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior publicly state that filming or circulating footage related to... |
60d23f0b0705bf57103753b229e81469fc773c904a15863945a216f83a7104ad:0 | 60d23f0b0705bf57103753b229e81469fc773c904a15863945a216f83a7104ad | 0 | 2026-06-09 | 2018-05-08 | FactChecking Trump's Contentious 'Meet the Press' Interview | www.factcheck.org | https://www.factcheck.org/2026/06/factchecking-trumps-contentious-meet-the-press-interview/ | In 2018, President Donald Trump was deciding whether the United States should remain in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multilateral agreement that limited Iran’s uranium enrichment and stockpiling and required international inspections for 15 years. Critics argued that the agreement did not go f... | On 2018-05-08, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA. | What will happen to Iran’s uranium-enrichment activities, deployment of advanced centrifuges, enriched-uranium stockpile, and estimated breakout time if President Donald Trump withdraws the United States from the 2015 JCPOA? | After the withdrawal, Iran accelerated and reconstituted its nuclear capabilities. It exceeded the agreement’s limits on its low-enriched uranium stockpile, began enriching uranium beyond the level needed for civilian nuclear power, deployed large numbers of advanced centrifuges, and accumulated highly enriched uranium... | **Identifying actions and effects**
I need to produce a list of actions with known effects. A strong candidate is Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, which led to Iran accelerating its uranium enrichment and stockpiling. I'll need to reason through the causal effects of decisions like this. Another important ev... | {"samples":[{"scenario":"In 2018, President Donald Trump was deciding whether the United States should remain in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a multilateral agreement that limited Iran’s uranium enrichment and stockpiling and required international inspections for 15 years. Critics argued that t... | **Evaluating withdrawal effects**
I need to evaluate a temporal issue regarding the decision date of May 8, 2018, which likely marks the announcement of Trump's withdrawal. The document suggests that the consequences accelerated after withdrawal. The question asks about the effects through 2025. There are criteria to ... | {"criteria":[{"criterion":1,"satisfied":1,"explanation":"The effect description identifies consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, including Iran exceeding enrichment limits, deploying advanced centrifuges, accumulating enriched uranium, and a reduced breakout time. These are distinct from the withdrawal it... | We need to evaluate the sample against the criteria. Let's go through each criterion.
Criterion 1: Causal action effect separation. The effect_description must describe consequences of the action, not just implementation details or overlapping with the action itself. The effects must be causally attributed to the acti... | {
"criteria": [
{
"criterion": 1,
"satisfied": 1,
"explanation": "The effect_description clearly describes consequences of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, such as Iran accelerating enrichment, deploying centrifuges, and accumulating enriched uranium. These are causally attributed in the docu... | [
"By 30 June 2025, will Iran’s low-enriched uranium stockpile exceed the JCPOA’s permitted 300-kilogram limit?",
"By 30 June 2025, will Iran have enriched uranium to at least 20% U-235?",
"By 30 June 2025, will Iran have deployed advanced centrifuges in quantities exceeding the limits permitted by the JCPOA?",
... |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
Effect Prediction Test Set (August 2026)
Test-only dataset containing 776 scenario-action-effect prediction samples, the generation/verification traces used to construct the retained samples, and frozen event-probability questions.
Dataset structure
The repository has one test split with 776 rows. Each row contains:
- identifiers:
sample_id,article_id,sample_index - dates and source metadata:
date,decision_date,title,source,source_url - task content:
scenario,action,effect_question,effect_description - event decomposition:
event_probability_questions - construction traces:
generator_reasoning,generator_output,luna_verifier_reasoning,luna_verifier_output,deepseek_verifier_reasoning,deepseek_verifier_output
date is the earlier valid date among the source article's publication date and download date.
Construction models
- Generator:
openai/gpt-5.6-luna - Verifier 1:
openai/gpt-5.6-luna - Verifier 2:
deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731
The model identities are dataset-level constants and are intentionally recorded here rather than repeated in every row.
Event-probability questions
event_probability_questions contains 1–10 positive-event questions for every sample (3,565 questions total). They were generated by openai/gpt-5.6-luna with high reasoning from the sample's decision_date, effect_question, and ground-truth effect_description. The questions describe events entailed by the ground-truth effect description and were frozen before candidate predictions were scored. The parser retained at most the first ten generated questions. This version did not use a separate model-based verification stage for these questions.
Canonical question artifact:
/fast/sgoel/decisai/effect/experiments/phase2_careful_experiments/effect_prediction/event_probability_full_test_20260817/question_generation/luna_high.jsonl
Trace semantics
Reasoning fields contain the provider-returned readable reasoning when available. If that field was absent, a provider-returned readable reasoning summary was used when available. Encrypted/opaque reasoning payloads are excluded. Missing readable reasoning is represented as null.
Readable reasoning coverage:
- generator: 649/776
- Luna verifier: 624/776
- DeepSeek verifier: 776/776
All 776 rows contain outputs from the generator and both verifiers. generator_output is the raw article-level generation response and may contain generated candidates other than the retained test sample. The two verifier outputs are candidate-specific responses for the retained sample. All retained samples passed both verification passes with no violated criteria.
Prompts, full source-article text, filesystem paths, provider request metadata, usage/cost records, and encrypted reasoning details are not included.
Provenance
Canonical source test set:
/fast/sgoel/decisai/effect/data/scenario_action_effect/test_set/test_set.jsonl
Source SHA-256: a8cac813f158d6839c6333bd746ba52479f130e53ddb28de99e7f834d972df50
Construction run:
/fast/sgoel/decisai/effect/experiments/phase2_careful_experiments/scenario_effect_qgen_june5000_v1/runs/june2026__5.6luna_5000_20260815/
Artifact SHA-256 values:
generations.jsonl:e41c4d5b8aa331943d33db9ab049482e72fdcccdfc1710ac46872f83d744a8de5.6luna_verify_1.jsonl:d4540f99684dccc98ef3b101b58fae469db730b5af9ba54acd6bb59db8c214a2dsv4flash_verify_1.jsonl:64c02a245a2582d03876cfd21e3552331b8afe8bd08fa48ebc298bec2722d704
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