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| title: RFTs Forecasts | |
| emoji: 🐢 | |
| colorFrom: pink | |
| colorTo: purple | |
| sdk: gradio | |
| sdk_version: 6.1.0 | |
| app_file: app.py | |
| pinned: true | |
| short_description: RFTs Weather phenomena live forecasts | |
| license: other | |
| thumbnail: >- | |
| https://huggingface.co/static-proxy/cdn-uploads.huggingface.co/production/uploads/685edcb04796127b024b4805/6Hp-B0MSDCUoC8dsijWJg.png | |
| # Rendered Frame Theory — Live Prediction Console (Open Method) | |
| This Space runs **live, transparent, recomputed-from-scratch** signals for four domains: | |
| - **Atmospheric** (location-based) | |
| - **Seismic** (region *or* local-radius, depending on your Seismic Mode) | |
| - **Magnetic** (global) | |
| - **Solar** (global) | |
| No hidden steps. The app surfaces the exact values it computes: **z**, **τ_eff**, **Ω_obs**, **α_R**, **index**, and the **decision rule** that fired. | |
| --- | |
| ## What changes with location (and what does not) | |
| ### Location input | |
| - **Used for Atmospheric** (Open-Meteo hourly at the geocoded lat/lon). | |
| - **Used for Seismic only in “Local radius” mode** (USGS events within your chosen km radius). | |
| - **Not used for Solar** (GOES X-ray flux is global). | |
| - **Not used for Magnetic** (Kp index is global). | |
| - **Not used for Seismic in “Region” mode** (region selector controls the filter). | |
| If you type a different city and Solar/Magnetic stay unchanged: **expected**. | |
| --- | |
| ## Seismic modes (important) | |
| This Space supports two seismic views: | |
| ### 1) Region mode | |
| Counts earthquakes in the selected region over the last **24 hours** with **M ≥ 2.5**. | |
| This is a **regional stress monitor**. It is not “near your city”. | |
| ### 2) Local radius mode | |
| Counts earthquakes within your chosen **radius (km)** around your typed location over the last **24 hours** with **M ≥ 2.5**. | |
| This is still **not** a time/epicenter predictor — it’s an activity density monitor. | |
| --- | |
| ## What this is / what this is not | |
| ### This is | |
| - A live multi-domain **regime detector** that turns raw public feeds into an explicit **RFT-style stress coordinate** **z**, maps it to **τ_eff**, then produces an **index**, then assigns labels using **fixed thresholds**. | |
| ### This is not | |
| - A guaranteed “prediction engine”. | |
| - A precipitation model, radar nowcast, or full NWP weather model. | |
| - An earthquake time + epicenter predictor. | |
| - A CME arrival model or flare timing predictor. | |
| - A local magnetometer or grid impact model. | |
| When live data is missing or too short, the domain is **DISABLED** instead of guessed. | |
| --- | |
| ## Forecast Receipts (durability + verification) | |
| Each run generates a downloadable **Forecast Receipt** (JSON) to make results inspectable over time. | |
| The receipt includes: | |
| - **Source URLs + request parameters + timestamps** | |
| - **sha256 hashes** of upstream payloads | |
| - **Computed intermediates** and the exact **rule_fired** | |
| - **Environment snapshot** (versions + constants) | |
| Optional durability mode: | |
| - Enable **“embed raw upstream payloads”** to include `raw_b64` inside the receipt for stronger offline verification. | |
| You can later upload the receipt under the **Verify Receipt** tab to: | |
| - Validate receipt structure | |
| - Verify embedded payload hashes (if present) | |
| - Recompute **z / τ_eff / index / label** and confirm they match the stored outputs | |
| --- | |
| ## Instant verification links (official sources) | |
| Use these to falsify the live status immediately: | |
| ### Atmospheric (Open-Meteo) | |
| - Docs: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs | |
| - Geocoding: https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/geocoding-api | |
| ### Seismic (USGS) | |
| - USGS Earthquake API: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/ | |
| ### Magnetic (NOAA SWPC Kp) | |
| - Kp JSON feed: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/planetary_k_index_1m.json | |
| - SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/ | |
| ### Solar (NOAA SWPC GOES X-ray) | |
| - GOES X-ray 1-day JSON: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/goes/primary/xrays-1-day.json | |
| - SWPC data services index: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/ | |
| --- | |
| ## Open method (equations used in-app) | |
| Shared core: | |
| - **τ_eff = 1.38 · ln(1 + z)** | |
| - **Ω_obs = 2π / T_earth** (T_earth = 365.2422 days) | |
| - **α_R = 1.02** | |
| - **Index = Ω_obs · τ_eff · α_R** | |
| z definitions: | |
| - Atmospheric: `z_atm = clamp( clamp(ΔT/10,0..2) + clamp(|ΔP|/12,0..1.5), 0..3 )` | |
| - Seismic: `z_seis = clamp( clamp(N/60,0..1.5) + clamp(max(0,Mmax-4)/2.5,0..1.5), 0..3 )` | |
| - Magnetic: `z_mag = clamp( (Kp_last/9) + (drift/2) + 2·|slope|, 0..3 )` | |
| - Solar: `z_solar = clamp( ln(F_mean/1e-8)/10, 0..3 )` | |
| Decision thresholds are printed per-domain in the agent output as `rule_fired`. | |
| --- | |
| ## Practical note: “Why does my city show X seismic events?” | |
| If **Seismic Mode = Region**, the count is for the **selected region** (e.g., EMEA) over the last 24 hours at **M ≥ 2.5**. | |
| Switch to **Local radius** mode to make the count location-dependent. |